Jeremy hunt this is a very difficult
thing for a prime minister to have to
say many more people are going to lose
loved ones before their time what sort
of numbers are we talking about well I
think it is a deeply concerning moment
and if you look at the modelling that
the chief medical officer believes we
would be lucky to have less than 5% of
the population getting the virus that
would suggest a mortality rate four or
five times the annual average for winter
flu and if you look at what happens in
other countries this can often be in the
most terrible circumstances so this is
very sobering but I think the
encouraging news from today is that we
believe that we are four weeks behind
Italy and that is I think thanks to
heroic efforts to contact race people
who have had the virus or may have the
virus and I think we've probably done
more than any other European country to
do that the sobering news is that maybe
up to 10,000 people have got the virus
as we speak in this country and that
suggests that we are in a very serious
emergency now although there are small
countries Denmark and Ireland have both
effectively moved to stop all mass
gatherings schooling everything has pit
has been closed shouldn't that be the
measure here well many people will be
surprised and concerned that we're not
moving sooner and the reason is because
are you surprised yes I am and the
reason is because one thing we do have
now is evidence of countries that appear
to have been strikingly successful in
turning back the tide of the virus
Thailand for example the first country
outside China to get the virus only 59
reported cases Taiwan right next door
only 49 cases Shanghai which is in the
same country as Wuhan province is only
reporting three deaths now there might
be under reporting but most people
recognize that the places that have
succeeded are the ones that
moved earliest to social distancing that
the business of trying to keep the most
vulnerable people away from places where
they could catch the virus and so I
think people will be concerned that
we're not moving sooner to more social
distancing for example banning external
visits to care homes things like that
and I think that that's for me one of
the puzzling things about this
announcement I'd like to see the
modeling that really says that people
are going to tire of social distancing
in a national and international
emergency of this nature so your candid
you you believe actually we should be
moving much faster and we should be
taking much more drastic measures well I
am concerned because we've got four
weeks with four weeks behind Italy and
what we do every single day of those
four weeks is absolutely critical I
don't want a second-guess the advice the
scientists are giving but I would like
to see what the modelling is from the
behavioral scientists that says that you
know we can go too early with some of
these measures because I think most
people's priority is is their elderly
loved ones who are most vulnerable
you know perhaps eight nine percent
mortality rates if they get the virus
and to do everything possible to make
sure that they don't get the virus but
then if I put you back into your old
position as Secretary of State for
health would you be looking at the
health services saying yes I wish we
could do this but actually in order to
bring the health service up to a scale
in which it can cope at all we must not
take these drastic measures well the
point of taking drastic measures is to
slow the onslaught on the NHS so 5% of
the population get the virus and 5% of
those people need an intensive care bed
that's over 150,000 people who will need
intensive care and we only have four
thousand beds so this phrase flattening
the curve is incredibly important to
delay the moment that it hits the NHS to
give the NHS more time to spread the
demand for those intensive care beds so
that's why doing everything we can now
to delay the onset of the virus and to
flatten that peak absolutely
but I do detect that you are alarmed
that the pace is not fast enough that
actually we should be moving much harder
to clamp down on public gatherings to
bring about a situation which just as
you said just now that people are not
allowed to go and visit care homes if
they have no business there and the rest
of it these measures should have been
taken in your view well the evidence
from that around the world is that
countries that acted earlier on social
distancing have had more success I
understand that the government
absolutely Riley must look at the the
modeling the scientific and behavioral
modeling but I would also say that
assumptions about what is acceptable are
changing I think two months ago very few
people would have said any democracy
would accept the kind of lockdowns that
they're having in Italy now but
according to one poll it has 89 percent
public support in Italy so I think
assumptions about what the public are
prepared to accept and willing to do if
it's going to reduce the chances of a
fatality amongst a loved one need to be
constantly checked if we look at our own
situation then is it in part a
consequence of underfunding the NHS that
we're in this position
I don't think so there's a I think the
NHS does need more money I fought for
more money when I was health secretary I
want more doctors and more nurses but I
think even the most well resourced
health systems in Europe
I mean Lombardi northern Italy is a rich
part of Europe and it has one of the the
better health care systems in Europe and
they are massively struggling the scale
of this is so huge that I think those
longer-term considerations are less
significant than what we do in the next
few days and weeks to reduce and spread
the pressure on the healthcare system do
you personally fear for what's to come
in the next few days and weeks I think
there's all to play for if we have got
four weeks which is what the assessment
was today at that press conference then
it is time to do a huge amount of things
and if you look at that there are
countries that have managed to stop
themselves getting into Italy style
situations against the odds Singapore
and Hong Kong two very interesting
examples of countries which have huge
amounts of contact with China but
possibly because of the experience of
dealing with SARS they acted very very
quickly so I think there are definitely
things that can be done and obviously
that's what we all want to happen just
about public gatherings if we take for
example the Liverpool match last night
some 4,000 Spanish mainly from Madrid
deeply affected by this virus came to
Liverpool hung about went to the bars
all the rest of it surely that was a
woefully wrong thing to be doing well I
think the question with public galleries
on I personally don't have a great
concern about going into public places
because I don't think I'm one of the the
most vulnerable people in one of the
most vulnerable groups but if you go to
one of those public gatherings and then
you have contact with an elderly
relative who you could pass the virus
onto that could be much more serious so
I think that's what the the calculation
has to be about these public gatherings
and if we have but then the logic from
that is you should ban these public
gatherings and many countries have yes
and I don't think we necessarily have to
do every single thing that every single
other country has done but I do think we
should look at the countries that have
turned the tide on the virus because we
do now have some very interesting
examples you know I think Shanghai is is
extraordinary how the successful they
appear to have been and ask what lessons
need to be learned public gatherings is
certainly one of the things there's a
big debate over schools I understand the
difficulties there because of the
worries that NHS workers might not be
able to go to work on the other hand
could schools run a skeleton service
just for health workers and other key
workers that got 95% of children out of
schools these are considerations I don't
think it's for me to second-guess but I
think the move towards social distancing
for the most vulnerable groups that
seems to me to be one
the biggest priorities so two very short
questions Jeremy hunt the optimist where
we would be in four weeks
Jeremy hunt the pessimist where we would
be in four weeks well I'm still
optimistic that we can head off what's
happening those horrific scenes that
we're seeing in Italy because I think
the NHS is very good at dealing with
these emergencies and I think we have
four weeks and we have a lot more
knowledge than the Italian authorities
had four weeks ago and the pessimist the
pessimist says to me that it is going to
be very very challenging to find enough
intensive care beds in whether it's the
NHS or any other system and so we we
really need to use every hour we have
over the next few weeks wisely to make
those preparations and what would your
message to the NHS staff that you used
to interact with them and run they are
absolutely amazing and you know we know
we can count on them and we know we need
to do everything possible to spread the
pressure that is coming down the track
so that it doesn't all come in a very
concentrated period which means that
doctors have to play God and decide who
gets to live and who gets to die that's
the the biggest nightmare for any doctor
and we want to try and avoid that as
much as possible Jeremy Hunt thank you
very much indeed for joining us thank
you