On February 1st, 2016, voters in Iowa will hold a caucus to begin the nomination process
to determine which Republican and Democratic candidates will run for president.
Iowa is designated as the first state to hold its nomination process, and is considered
one of the most important states in the presidential race.
So, what is it about Iowa that makes it such a big deal?
Just how powerful is Iowa?
Well, as a matter of fact, Iowa is pretty “middle of the road” in most metrics.
It is the 26th largest state at about 56,000 square miles, and with a little over 3 million
residents it ranks about 30th in terms of population.
For a long period starting in the mid 1800s, Iowa’s economy was predominantly focused
on agriculture, and still has significant roots in the industry.
However, by the late 1900s, Iowa had transitioned into a mostly manufacturing economy, with
a current GDP of 168 billion dollars.
Like its population, its economy ranks 30th country-wide.
So why does such a seemingly average state garner so much attention?
It’s all about the caucus.
Since 1972, Iowa has held its nomination process first.
At the time, caucuses were not seen as important, and Iowa had simply set their caucus earlier
to account for scheduling.
Since then, the Code of Iowa says that their caucus must occur 8 days earlier than any
other state’s, guaranteeing it will be first.
But while the delegates selected by the caucus only account for about 1% of the total country’s
delegates, being first is a huge deal.
It is such a big deal that states have repeatedly attempted to hold their selection process
earlier and earlier.
This led to a new rule after the 2004 election, preventing certain influential states from
starting earlier than February 5th, lest they lose half their delegates as punishment.
So, what’s so important about such a small number of delegates?
Well, simply, the first “real” election results in Iowa put an official count on what
has been, up to that point, competing polling figures.
A win in Iowa will be used to predict further results, and give any winning candidate significant
media coverage and momentum.
However, many contend that Iowa’s caucuses aren’t actually as important as they seem.
For starters, Iowa’s demographics are not representative of either the voting population
or the country’s total population.
Iowa is roughly 92% white, compared to 77% nationwide, and 72% among voters.
These same discrepancies exist for other demographics too, and are actually misleading in regards
to the general election.
Considerably more white voters voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, but Barack Obama ended up
winning.
And while Iowa did predict the nomination of Obama in both 2008 and 2012, they widely
missed the mark for both election years on the Republican side.
Neither John McCain nor Romney ended up getting the most Iowa delegates.
So, just how powerful is Iowa?
It's hard to say.
In terms of pure economy or geography, Iowa’s not more powerful than most other US states.
However, politically, they hold some serious, if not potentially undue power.
Whether the 2016 election cycle will be significantly influenced by Iowa is still relatively unclear.
But that hasn’t stopped campaigns from sinking tens of millions of dollars into the state
in hopes of a big win.
As the race for the White House treks on, certain candidates are standing out as frontrunners,
while others are falling behind.
To learn more about all the candidates, check out our playlist at the top.
And if you’ve wondered what makes someone eligible for U.S. presidency, watch our video
at the bottom.
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