- Hey Data Geeks, thanks for joining me.
Today I wanna take a look and answer one of your questions
about whether or not it makes sense
to get a used Model S, right now,
or to order a new Model 3.
Now this came about because the Model S,
the used one's that are certified pre-owned,
or CPO as we'll call 'em, they actually carry with them
the free SuperCharger Access For Life.
So you can actually used the SuperCharger Network
all over the world for free,
as long as you have the vehicle.
So this helps in our comparison a lot
because if you go on road trips
you will incur a cost with the new Model S or a Model 3.
And if you're a road tripper though
you may wanna go check out my other video
where I actually built a calculator
that you can use to get a rough idea
of what a trip might cost you,
say LA to Vegas, or LA to New York City,
whatever the case may be.
So for this comparison I wanna start
by talking about the range.
Now the Model S, of course, we know the ranges on that,
but we're talking about used Model S's here
and older cars older Model S's actually don't get
the exact same range as the newer ones.
For example the newer Model S 60 kilowatt hour battery
shows 225 estimated miles on the, on the website
but mine, which I bought just a year ago,
and it's a 2013 model, it only gets 200.
So you're mileage, literally, may vary here based on that,
so if you wanna look at them, at the mileage,
I wanna focus on what the used models are showing,
not exactly just what the new Model S's are showing,
and compare that to what we know about the Model 3.
So what do we know?
Well the Model 3 starts at 215 miles for its range.
And all the rumors and stuff I've seen show that that
is probably around a 55 kilowatt hour battery.
This other YouTuber, Shots of Jameson,
made an excellent video where he actually broke down
all the different cost options,
or all the assumptions that we have at this point,
about what the actual cost may be
after you add on things like maybe
an upgrade to a 70 kilowatt hour battery,
or the dual motor, or a glass roof,
or premium tires, or whatever.
So go check out his video too because
if you really want to figure out what your cost may be
he breaks in it down in very fine grain detail for you
so I encourage you to do that.
So I'm gonna use that though and say that for this one
in order to get the range that you'd want
you're gonna have to upgrade the battery,
and that can go anywhere from say five grand
up to the 70 kilowatt hour battery,
up to maybe 10 grand all the way up
to a 90 kilowatt hour battery.
But the point being that the range between these cars
is gonna be pretty comparable.
In my experience other than,
there were a couple of road trips I've been on
where just maybe 20 more miles woulda made
a big difference 'cause I wouldn't have had to stop as much.
Below lets say 220 miles you're probably
not gonna hit that on a daily basis.
If you do maybe an electric car isn't for you, honestly.
Or maybe you wanna go full on out
P100 or something like that.
But point being that the range between these cars
is gonna be fairly the same.
But it will adjust the price on the Model 3,
and we'll get to price here in a second.
So the next thing to talk about
is charging and this is the big one.
So as I mentioned the used Model S,
the certified preowned ones sold by Tesla
will carry free supercharging for life.
That benefit goes with the vehicle not with the owner.
So the new Model 3 will have a charge
and it will be fairly minimal,
plus you get 400 kilowatt hours of charging free every year.
So with those two factors in mind
I'm actually gonna give the point here
to the used Model S for this one.
Now when it comes to performance
obviously the Model S has the P100 D
with Ludicrous Plus Mode and all that crazy stuff.
So it obviously is the fastest car,
or the quickest car you can buy,
but I don't know if it matters a ton
between that one and the Model 3.
You know the Model 3 is gonna be fast,
you know it's gonna be really really quick,
but is it going to be that much of a difference to you?
And since we're talking about a used Model S
I don't think you can actually buy a P100D used
or any of those really top end ones.
Most people are hanging onto those
otherwise the resale price would be
pretty close to what it would be new anyways.
So again for performance I'm gonna call it a wash.
I'm gonna say, "Yes the Model S is better."
And I know some people will be mad
that I'm calling this a wash,
but really for most practical purposes, for most people,
they're both gonna perform incredibly well.
They're gonna be really quick off the line
and they're also gonna be really fast overall.
And the next one is availability.
And so for this one it's gonna be tough
because the Model 3, if you ordered it on day one,
or even before, as soon as they opened
the reservations, or you stood in line,
good for you because you're probably anxious,
you're chomping at the bit to get your Model 3
now that it's 2017 and they're ramping up production.
All signs are good that they'll be able to deliver
at least a good chunk of these this year.
But the Model S really has the edge here
because you can buy a used Model S
and typical delivery times are two to four weeks.
So at best with the Model 3 you're a few months out,
it's January now.
At worst, if you were to order today,
they're saying mid-2018,
so you're looking at a year and a half.
So that has to be a point for the Model S.
And I think it's a good one because
if you're in the market for an EV this is something
that I think would sway you is a way
to get it sooner rather than later.
And again it really depends,
there's a couple of other factors here
that we'll talk about which may sway you
one way or the other.
Okay so let's talk about the tech in the car,
on the car, around the car, all that stuff.
Well the used cars for the Model S still get the updates
and they have really great tech in 'em.
I mean obviously they're Teslas so they
have fantastic capabilities and they're continuing
to get better as those updates still roll in.
However the new Model 3 is gonna get
a point on this one because you can get
full self driving capabilities with it.
You also have enhanced autopilot
which not a lot of the used Model S's out there have
and you have any of the other bells and whistles
that are being delivered today in new Model S's, X's,
and will be available in the Model 3.
So I have to give a point on the tech to the Model 3.
Now it gets into price and this is where
I think it's really interesting
because the Model 3, while it does start at 35K
and there is a potential federal tax subsidy here in the US
that is most likely not gonna be what most people pay.
And I say that because most people are gonna wanna upgrade
at least the battery and maybe a couple
of the other features, maybe the glass roof,
or the hi fidelity sound, or something like that.
There are gonna be some upgrades
that almost everyone is gonna add
and that will push you well into the 40 to 50,000 range.
Now coincidentally that is the range
where a lot of used Model S's are selling.
So let's take a look at the data
and see what it's trying to tell us about the availability
of the certified preowned inventory for the Tesla Model S.
So here on the Tesla preowned website
you can see that you can filter here by price,
zip code, and model, even exterior color
'cause that's kind of a important thing
if you really like a certain color car.
And what I did to get this data
was I went to this website and I selected these filters here
and then I actually copied all of this data down
and parched it into a simple little data set
that we can work with here.
So in my data what I wanted to do first
was just take a look at the inventory levels
and see which models are the most available.
You have the Model 60 with five cars, the 85 with 39 cars,
the P85 with 20, and the P85 plus with 14.
So when I was talking about the difference
in performance and all that you have to
really compare apples to apples here
so these are the only cars available
at least when I searched.
And that would change essentially what I would
do in those types of comparisons.
But point being you have a really healthy stack here
and I'm surprised that the 85's are the ones
that are really showing up because they don't
make those any more and a lot of people covet them.
Digging in a little deeper here to the used inventory
we can see that the average miles
on the Model 60 are 27.7 thousand.
There are only five cars there and the range again
is about 210 estimated miles which I get
from the used website as well because the new ones
again are a little bit different.
So the ranges you see here are from the website
not from the new Model S's which isn't a fair comparison.
So then if you take a look you can see
the average miles are for, the 85, around 31,000,
the P85 are around 29,000,
and the P85 plus, close to 37,000.
So they're all fairly low miles,
that's maybe a couple of years at most of driving,
which, if you think about the lifetime
of these cars, it's gonna be tremendous.
So I wouldn't really worry about any of these models here.
And one of the surprising things here
is how much of a difference there is in price
between a couple of these models
even though the average miles on the car are about the same.
And as I breakdown the actual cost
of all the different models what you can see
is kind of the area where they all bunch up
right in the middle, right around this 62,000 mark.
And surprisingly there's a couple down here,
there's one that has only 23,000 miles on it for 51,000.
And then all the way up at the top
there's another one with just above 16,000 miles for 73,000.
So if the difference between a P85 and a 60
isn't that big of a difference to you
and you wanted to just get the lowest miles possible
this view will actually show you where that car is.
And I thought that was an interesting finding
when I started looking at the data.
Now I'll publish this on the web
and you can go check this out to play
with this calculator to see kind of
what insights you may gain from it.
And one of the ways you can do that
is by changing the filters up here on the right.
So if I don't care about the 60,
let's say that's out of the question,
I don't want that, I can do that
and the chart instantly updates.
And if I don't care about, let's say the P85,
you can see those go.
And the color coding, again,
is based on the average number of miles,
and the height of the bar is the number
of cars that are in that price range.
So when it comes down to it I think price
is also fairly a wash because you're
gonna wanna upgrade the Model 3 a little bit
and that upgrade is gonna put you into
the price range of a used Model S.
Now I know some people will be upset
about that because the averages of the Model S
are more expensive but honestly I would say
it's in the same range, 5,000 here or there,
in my mind anyways doesn't make that big of a difference
when I'm already gonna be spending close to 50,000.
And the last one is about looks,
and these are both beautiful cars.
I mean the Model S is a more bigger, beautiful sedan,
a full sized car whereas the Model 3
is a sleek and sporty little sexy car
that will zip around and all that,
but really they're both gorgeous.
I would say depending on what your life needs and demands,
I needed a car that I could put a car seat in
to carry my son around and a stroller
and all that kind of stuff.
The Model S is definitely the better car
for me and it still looks great.
So I'm gonna call this one even between those two.
So there you have it, my comparison between
the used Model S and the new Model 3.
I would love to know which one are you leaning towards,
or maybe the announcement about free supercharging
for the used Model S, has that swayed you at all?
So thanks for joining me again, I really appreciate it.
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