In April 2020, the CEO of the International Air Transport Association, or IATA
remarked that the aviation industry “has never seen a downturn this deep before"
likening the Covid-19 pandemic to a war, which “has brought death and economic devastation.”
The air travel outlook at the start of the new decade was promising.
Demand was surging worldwide, fuelled by a growing middle class in emerging economies.
But with airplanes grounded and borders closed because of the pandemic,
many airlines and airports are using this period of inactivity
to relook at the future of air travel.
The days of packed aircraft and limited legroom may be a thing of the past
as social distancing measures kick in.
With economies reopening, airlines are implementing a slew of measures
to ensure the safety of passengers.
As a passenger, my greatest concern is actually my fellow passengers,
how far they'll be seated next to me.
I think knowing a background check on where the traveller has actually gone through
and whether or not they pose as a risk to actually be more isolated than the rest.
To that end, carriers such as American Airlines and Japan Airlines
are blocking seats onboard its flights,
while Emirates is pre-allocating seats between individual passengers or family groups.
But what does the reduction in passenger capacity mean for airlines?
Before the pandemic, air travel trends suggested that there would be 8.2 billion air passengers
in 2037, nearly double the 4.2 billion passengers reported in 2018.
The biggest demand for air travel was projected to come from the Asia Pacific region.
China was poised to overtake the United States as the largest air passenger market,
with India, Indonesia and Thailand making inroads by 2030.
That rosy outlook was all but gone in IATA’s April forecast, which it deemed “catastrophic”.
I spoke to Brian Pearce from IATA to find out more about the 2020 forecast.
The past few months has clearly been
the worst period that aviation has been through.
We've never seen airlines grounding their operations.
April marked the low point when international travel virtually stopped.
We saw air travel down 98% compared to where it was a year earlier.
We would expect in the second half of the year to see some recovery.
We think airlines are going to probably lose an unprecedented $84 billion in 2020.
According to IATA, full-year passenger revenue in 2020 is expected to fall by 55%
compared to 2019, while there will be a 48% decrease in air traffic.
This is reflected in the plunge in scheduled flights globally.
While there were 0.8% more flights in January 2020 compared to the same period in 2019,
that number plunged by more than 65% year-on-year in June.
The ability of airlines to operate really depends on whether the health authorities
have either unlocked the economies or allowed people to travel.
We’re seeing domestic air travel markets opening first.
China, for example, and the United States.
Domestic air travel will be enough to kickstart the airline industry in some countries.
As travel restrictions ease, the safety of passengers is paramount
to avoid another wave of infections.
Qatar Airways has continued its international flights during the pandemic
despite the plunge in air travel, its Group CEO tells me.
We have never stopped flying.
We were the largest international operator
for the last three months from March until April and May.
Besides putting in place the safety recommendations by IATA, Qatar Airways is also reviewing its
meals services to minimise contact between its cabin crew and passengers.
Similar measures are also in place for other international carriers such as Singapore Airlines,
which has suspended its in-flight meals for some routes
while British Airways will be replacing in-flight meals with meal boxes instead.
We have given all our cabin crew training in how to make sure we identify if there is
anybody that has symptoms on an aeroplane.
And secondly, how to handle issues when there are risks.
All items are very well sterilised, again using also UV.
Qatar Airways is the only international airline that once you are traveling in a premium cabin,
you're completely enclosed.
So there is no need of social distancing because you are not in contact
with anybody that is sitting next to you.
Flying is now a necessity and not a luxury.
The disruption to air travel has affected business and families alike.
IATA’s safety recommendations, done in collaboration with the Airports Council International,
include best practices for airlines, airports and local authorities
to resume commercial flights.
From pre-flight, in-flight and arrival, safety recommendations include contact tracing,
the use of personal protective equipment and enabling contactless services at customs.
With airlines restarting flights and more countries easing travel restrictions,
could things be looking up in the second half of 2020?
Patrick Nolan, an aviation technology consultant,
says that the pandemic has disrupted pilot training.
The pandemic’s biggest impact really
has been in commercial aviation.
What won't change in aviation is the focus on safety, the continual increase in automation.
And our technology and, I guess, our capabilities would need to be agile enough
to be able to move with that change in focus.
Because when the flag goes back up and there's going to be a lot more training required,
then training efficiency and supporting the instructor
with new and usable data is going to be critical.
And that may move from pilot training right through to potentially reduce crew in aircraft.
There's so many things that may happen now.
With costs increasing and revenues falling, there may be a consolidation in the airline sector,
says Professor Keith Mason from the Centre for Air Transport Management.
While those receiving government aid are more likely to survive,
fully independent airlines may go out of business.
We may end up with a smaller airline industry,
which may mean that there's less choice for consumers and that prices may go up.
And that may flatten demand.
I don't see any stability in international air travel, until we get to a point where
the whole of the market has been able to control the impact of Covid-19.
The growth out of the challenges will be piecemeal and localised
and between countries where they have been able to control the virus.
The industry will come out of this, it will be leaner, there will be fewer players
but there will be an industry.
It will continue to drive economic activity on a global basis.
One thing is clear: sweeping changes will be needed for the airline sector
to adapt to a world post-pandemic.
As airlines and airports gear up to resume operations,
how we travel in the future will change, for better or for worse.
Hey, guys. Let us know what you think air travel is going to look like in the future.
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And in the meantime, do stay safe.