Russia has been fighting months in a war that they thought would be over in a matter
of weeks. This has led to Vladamir Putin making some pretty alarming statements,
including mentioning the use of nuclear weapons to improve Russia’s position in
the conflict. However, Russia has recently been backing down as its
forces regroup to begin the next stage of their offensive against the Ukrainian people.
Putin thought he could easily take Ukraine by force using conventional means. But he
has clearly failed. This is both good and bad news. It’s good news because Ukrainian troops
are holding their own against Russia. It’s bad news because it means Putin
is preparing a new war plan, one that could lead to the end of the world as we know it.
Putin’s new plan to win consists of several different components. Surprisingly, some of
them have nothing to do with conventional fighting. The mad dictator of Russia plans
to defeat Ukraine using unconventional tactics, and you might be an unwilling part of his plan.
One main component of Putin’s agenda as of right now is to wait. It may seem that he
doesn’t want the war to go on any longer, but this is partly an illusion. Putin is banking on Western
nations waning in their support for Ukraine. Without European countries
and the United States providing Ukraine with weapons and supplies, eventually,
Russian forces will be victorious. But would the nations that support Ukraine
ever let this happen? The answer to this question may make you a bit uncomfortable.
Right now, many countries, including the United States and much of Europe,
are headed toward a financial crisis. There are several reasons for this,
but the war in Ukraine and Russia’s decision to cut off oil and gas exports while also forcing
other OPEC countries to reduce the amount of fossil fuels they’re exporting are some of
the reasons economies around the world are in decline. These are not the only factors
that are leading to inflation and economic slowdowns, but they are playing a major role.
Putin sees the EU and US’ struggle to maintain financial stability as a waiting game. He is
banking on Russia being able to endure long enough in their fight with Ukraine
to see the NATO countries suffer economic collapse. If this happens, aid to Ukraine
will likely slow or completely come to a halt. At least, this is what Putin is planning on.
But it isn’t just the leaders and economies of the western world that Putin believes he can wait out;
it’s you as well. Putin and other military leaders in Russia have said that the West is weak and will
eventually either grow tired of the war or their attention will shift to something else. The scary
thing is he might be right. The way that many people around the world consume news today is
by following trends and what is fed to them via social media and algorithms. If people
in other countries stop paying attention and let their support of Ukraine falter, there is a real
chance that politicians will no longer feel the pressure to provide aid and support to the nation.
Vladimir Putin has made it clear he is willing to wage his war for as long as it takes,
and he’s betting that support for Ukraine will wane long before his desire to capture the country
does. And to be fair, this is probably true. As times become harder on families in the United
States and Europe due to increasing energy prices, inflation, and economic slowdown, people will
start worrying more about putting food on their table and paying bills than supporting Ukraine.
The ability to wait out the rest of the world until Ukraine is starved of help and support
is one key component of Putin’s plan to win the war. And if the last several months have been any
indication, this might actually come to pass as many NATO countries already have problems brewing
at home. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson stepped down and was replaced by Liz Truss,
who has now resigned after 44 days of serving as prime minister. In France,
President Emmanuel Macron’s party lost the majority in parliament.
And in the United States, the midterm elections were predictably turbulent.
There is nothing wrong with new officials being elected to government; however,
these drastic changes are coming at a time when the world’s economic future looks more dubious
than ever. Putin is watching the governments of western countries scramble to maintain the
support of their constituents. Only time will tell whether support for Ukraine wavers due to
financial and political problems in the U.S. and Europe. However, the longer Putin and Russian
forces can hold out, the more likely it becomes that people living outside of the conflict zone
will shift their focus to other problems or whatever the next big crisis is. Because,
let’s be honest, there always seems to be a new threat looming just around the corner.
Another key component in Russia’s plan to win the war is misinformation. Putin
and his cronies have used misinformation for decades now to control the country,
but when it comes to war, they are taking this tactic to new levels.
Using the state-run media, Putin is brainwashing the Russian people by claiming that the western
world wants to use “cancel culture” to erase their identity. He has taken things a step
further and even claims that the west wants to censor the Russian people themselves,
and he is just fighting for their freedom. In reality, Putin has stripped away the very
freedom he is promising his people. The spread of such lies has unified certain
extremist groups and Russian citizens who may not have initially thought the war was necessary.
However, the manipulation of the truth doesn’t stop there. Every day the people of Russia are
told that the “special operation” is going well. Yes, it’s taking longer than expected,
but Putin reassures them that everything is going according to plan and nothing will stop
them. To further demonize the enemy, Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov has
even used the media to spread misinformation, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
being a Nazi. This is an especially surprising tactic as Zelensky is Jewish.
The misinformation being spread by Russia to its citizens and on the internet for conspiracy
theorists around the world to see is extremely dangerous. It’s also all part of Russia’s plan
to make sure that the public remains on their side in the war against Ukraine.
Russia obviously knows that they are a major supplier of oil and natural gas to much of Europe,
especially Germany. Therefore, cutting off this supply of fossil fuels has already
caused many Europeans to suffer at the hands of astronomical utility prices. The reality is that
many people in Europe will not be able to pay their bills and could have their electricity
or heat shut off in the coming months. As the northern hemisphere heads into winter,
the reduced amount of fossil fuels coming into the E.U. from Russia is going to cause
huge problems. And Putin has built this into his plan to win the war.
Multiple high-level officials in the Kremlin have bragged that EU residents will be “feeling
the impact of these sanctions” more than Russia will. The plan is basically to hold the citizens
of the EU hostage by taking away oil and gas, which will cause prices to skyrocket
and support for Ukraine to diminish. Russia also hopes this will result in civil unrest and force
European governments to focus more on what’s happening at home than aiding Ukraine in their
fight against Russia. They are also betting that as people in Europe suffer, their governments will
lift certain sanctions on Russia. All of these things would help Russia win the war in the end.
It’s become abundantly clear that relying heavily on Russia for energy resources was
a huge mistake, a mistake Putin is now exploiting. But it’s not just in Europe
that Russia’s hoarding of natural resources is being felt. Even in the United States,
gas prices are again on the rise, making many Americans extremely upset. Russia
believes that as oil prices increase, NATO countries will be more willing to
loosen restrictions to bring oil and gas prices down to keep their citizens happy.
Unfortunately, this would allow Russia to do even more damage in Ukraine. Putin
is leveraging the western world’s reliance on fossil fuels to force governments to give him
what he wants. As a people, citizens in the United States and Europe might accept these
rising costs and maintain their support for Ukraine for a time, but when families
can’t afford to heat their homes or the increased gas prices become too much of an inconvenience,
pressure will be put on elected officials to do something by making a deal with Russia.
Again, this is another part of Russia’s plan to win the war. If Russia can cause enough
problems and discomfort for the average person in Europe and the United States, the lifelines that
are being provided to Ukraine could diminish, and at that point, all Putin would have to do
is continue sending troops across the border and wait until Ukrainian forces ran out of supplies.
Russia also isn’t too worried about waiting out sanctions and fighting a prolonged war
because they believe one particular ally will always have their back;
a country that is an economic powerhouse and more than willing to buy their oil and
gas. China has the second-largest economy in the world, and although they do not support the war,
they are more than happy to buy resources and goods from Russia.
A main part of Putin’s plan going forward is relying on allies to continue buying
Russian oil and gas. Russia believes that China will help compensate for any
economic losses that are caused by the sanctions placed on them by the United
Nations and NATO. This reliance on China is especially important for Russia as
it can secure technology and other goods necessary to keep its war machine going.
China is more than willing to purchase Russian oil at a huge discount to help boost its own
economy and output. However, China has made it clear that it will take no part in the war,
and it will not openly provide Russia with weapons or military vehicles. Russia needs
China to keep buying its exports to fund the war, but they are also in
desperate need of military equipment as well, something China has so far refused to supply.
Russia’s artillery, tanks, and weapons are mostly from the Cold War era,
and supplies are running low. The sanctions have definitely hurt Russia’s production capabilities,
but Putin refuses to admit this as it would show weakness. Instead, most Russian media outlets
spread lies that China and Russia are happily working together to keep Russia’s economy going
while they manufacture more weapons and military vehicles to fight the war against Ukraine.
This brings us to Russia’s more militaristic strategies to win the war going forward. Fighting
has slowed recently, but Putin claims it’s all part of the plan. He reassures the people of
Russia a new strategy is being put in place. It’s not clear exactly what this strategy is,
likely because the military leaders in Russia don’t really have one,
but Russia’s next phase of attack will include more soldiers.
Russia has now conscripted over 300,000 soldiers to fight in Ukraine. Originally
they thought their initial force would be enough to decimate the enemy,
but this clearly wasn’t true. At the beginning of the war, Putin decided that mass mobilization
of Russia’s army wasn’t necessary. Many in the Kremlin disagreed with this decision,
but Putin didn’t listen. In his new plan, Putin is pivoting to what was
recommended to him by his advisors months ago and sending more troops into Ukraine.
Putin won’t admit it, but ever since he ordered the conscription of more troops, over 200,000
Russians have fled the country. It’s clear not everyone believes the nonsense Putin and the
Russian leadership are spewing. At this point, even if something happened to Vladamir Putin,
such as an assassination or getting eaten by a Russian brown bear, the war would likely
continue. This is because the Kremlin has invested so much into the war and believes
that they have the right to take Ukraine and incorporate it back into the motherland.
Young men and women will continue to be drafted into the Russian army without
a choice as a part of Russia’s plan to defeat Ukraine. However,
Russia has also been threatening to use a weapon so terrible that it could lead to World War III.
And unfortunately for the rest of us, this, too, is part of their plan to win the war.
Russia has made it clear that using nukes is not off the table when it comes to winning the war
in Ukraine. For now, Putin has only talked about using tactical nukes, which are around one kiloton
and have a blast radius of about 50 meters. Anyone within a half mile of the explosion would likely
receive a large dose of radiation resulting in a 50% mortality rate. This is much smaller than
strategic nukes, which can be over 1,000 times more powerful. However, the use of tactical nukes
would change the course of the war completely and could result in the end of the world.
In Russia’s plan, it seems most probable that tactical nukes would
be used if Russian forces were pushed back by Ukrainian soldiers. In this scenario,
a tactical nuke could be launched from an artillery cannon or via short-range missiles from
a battleship or submarine. The fallout wouldn’t be nearly as large as that of a strategic nuke,
but the surrounding area would become irradiated. The bigger problem with this
part of Russia’s plan is that it would provoke NATO to take immediate action.
The United States and Europe cannot and will not allow Putin to use a nuke
unpunished. There would need to be some kind of response, and although Putin knows this,
he still believes that western countries don’t have the backbone to stand up to Russia. This
may be true as most of the world does not want a nuclear war to break out. But using
nuclear weapons would most likely result in some kind of militaristic response by NATO.
Although, NATO might not actually need to retaliate, because if Russia did
use a tactical nuke in Ukraine, almost every country on the planet would turn against them,
including China. China has already made it clear that they adhere to a strict 'no
first use' nuclear doctrine, which means nukes should only be used for defensive
purposes. This is not how Russia plans to use them. It’s unclear if Russia would be
willing to suffer the consequences and become a global pariah just to keep
Ukrainian forces from pushing them out of their territory, but Putin may not have a choice.
The main and most important part of Putin’s plan is to win the war at all costs by using any means
necessary. The reason for this is that if Russia does not win, Putin will fall from power and will
most likely be executed for his failures. Obviously, this is the last thing he wants,
which makes Vladamir Putin the most dangerous man in the world. There are ways that Russia
as a country could get out of the war, but Putin would forfeit his life under these
circumstances. Therefore, the only part of Putin’s plan that cannot be changed is that he must win.
As Russia re-assess its approach to the war, Putin will make sure that no matter what
actions are taken, it makes him look strong in the eyes of the Russian people. This is
why rather than trying to negotiate, Russia is doubling down on fighting by deploying
more troops and trying to weaken the countries supplying Ukraine with weapons and resources.
Even if the war in Ukraine becomes unwinnable, Russia will likely fight to the last man because
if they don’t, everyone in the Kremlin right now would either be exiled or put to death. The
scariest part about this scenario is that it’s reminiscent of the spot German leadership was
in during World War I. Kaiser Wilhelm II and his advisors all realized that the war was unwinnable,
but they continued to order their troops to fight for years. This was
because they all understood that if Germany lost,
their administration would be overthrown, and a revolution would take hold of the country.
As we know from history, this is exactly what happened. Putin and his allies also
know that if Russia fails to secure Ukraine, a similar revolution could happen in their
country. It might not lead to Nazism, but there would be a shift in power,
and Russia could even become a capitalist democracy, something that would be worse than
death for some Russian government officials. Putin and Russia’s leadership are incredibly
dangerous for this very reason. That is why their plan to win the war isn’t so much of a plan as:
do whatever it takes to secure victory, even if it means starting a nuclear war.
That being said, a part of Russia’s plan to win does involve some sort of diplomacy. If
Putin could secure enough military victories and concessions from Ukraine to spin his failures as
a victory, he might be willing to end the war using diplomatic means. Right now, this doesn’t
seem likely to happen. However, part of Putin’s plan does rely on him being able to negotiate at
some point, especially if Ukraine continues to do as well as they have been in the war.
In Russia's timeline, if they do not conquer Ukraine in the next year or two,
there is a contingency plan. In order for Russia to come to the table for peace talks,
some other parts of Russia's plan need to come to fruition first. The most important
one is that Europe needs to descend into economic and political chaos so that they
stop lending aid to Ukraine. If this does not happen, Russia will not have a strong
bargaining position at the table. For Putin, this would be unacceptable.
However, if all goes according to plan, Russia will have advanced further into Ukraine,
and only a handful of resistance forces will be left to deal with. At that point,
Putin could make the argument that Ukraine was all but his and head to the negotiating table to end
the fighting. Even if Russia wasn’t guaranteed to win, reduced foreign support might cause Ukraine
to give in and concede on some of their demands. This could still result in parts of Ukraine,
such as Kyiv remaining independent as long as most of the country becomes the property of Russia.
Obviously, this is not the optimal outcome for Ukraine or NATO. However, if economies are in
shambles and countries stop sending military supplies and support to Ukraine, this may be the
best deal they can secure. It’s a scary thought, but Russia could theoretically wait out Ukraine
and the rest of the world. If they continue to reduce the oil and gas flows being exported
from OPEC countries under their influence, a very real global crisis could develop.
These are all things Putin is banking on for his plan to come to fruition. However, the leadership
of Russia may want to enter negotiations as soon as possible because the massive mobilization of
their forces is incredibly unpopular with their citizens. Most join the military when
conscripted because they are afraid of what will happen if they refuse; others flee the country.
Overwhelmingly, the Russian people do not want to be forced to fight in the war with Ukraine.
Right now, using misinformation tactics, Putin can still justify the war as a means
to an end that will protect Russia’s way of life and culture. If Ukraine is allowed to
join the EU or become allies with the west, then it’s only a matter of time before NATO
invades Russia and forces everyone to become a capitalist… or so Putin says.
After years of fighting, this argument likely won’t hold enough weight, which is why Putin
may be willing to come to the table as long as he can save face. If Ukraine is still
in a strong position to negotiate, Putin will never sit down and try to come to an
agreement. This is because it will lead to his fall from power and likely cost him his life.
Most experts agree that at this point, Putin is just trying to strengthen his bargaining position,
and eventually, he will come to the table. However, there is still a very
real possibility that if Putin feels he will lose the war, he could enact the most radical
part of his plan to defeat the Ukrainians by launching nuclear weapons. It’s terrifying,
but if Putin had to choose between losing power and obliterating the world through nuclear war,
he might just be crazy enough to choose nuclear holocaust.
No matter which way you look at it, Putin’s plan is a mess. It hinges on a lot of things going
right for Russia and a lot of things going wrong for the rest of the world. This is not to say
that his plan won’t work. There is a very real possibility that people will grow weary of war,
and support for Ukraine will fade. This would be terrible, but the longer the
war lasts, and the worse things get due to economic decline and shortages of oil and gas,
the more likely people are to stop caring about Ukraine.
So the question now becomes:
can Russia outlast western countries and eventually wear down NATO and Ukraine?
As of right now, around 70 percent of Germans support their country giving aid to Ukraine,
even if it means higher energy prices over the next few months. However,
it will be interesting to see what that number will look like if this winter is particularly
cold and people can’t afford to heat their own homes. Around 72 percent of Americans support
providing further military aid to Ukraine. But again, as gas prices increase, this number
could become lower, which is what Russia’s plan for winning the war is predicated on.
Around 58% of Americans have said they think that the United States government
should support Ukraine for as long as it takes to defeat Russia. Much of this sentiment likely
carries over from the Cold War era; however, almost all Americans agree that what Russia is
doing is wrong. The problem is that if the world doesn’t continue to pay attention to
the crisis happening in Ukraine, Putin could literally get away with murder.
At the rate things are going, it seems like the war could last for years, and many don’t think
Russia can maintain its current military push after years of sanctions and the boycotting of
Russian goods. This will quickly start to affect the average Russian citizen,
and Putin may need to shift his focus on domestic matters as life gets even harder. Currently,
he holds too much influence and power for an uprising to be successful. But as military
forces and machinery are depleted from the war with Ukraine, Putin may find that his
plan to win falls apart, and the people of Russia start to hold him accountable for his actions.
If we do not want Russia’s plan to win the war to succeed, we cannot forget about what is happening.
This is what Putin is banking on, and as long as the world stays unified behind Ukraine,
there is a chance that Putin will find himself at the mercy of his own angry citizens.
Now watch “Ukraine's Plan to Win the War.” Or check
out “What If the US Invades Russia (Day by Day).”