At Ancestry.
♪.
♪. DEIRDRE: STOCKS ARE HIGHER AGAIN
AFTER THE DOW POSTED ITS BIGGEST
SINGLE DAY POINT GAIN EVER.
"MAKING MONEY," CHARLES PAYNE,
THE MAN HIMSELF, IS WITH ME.
CHARLES, GREAT TO SEE YOU.
HAPPY YOU’RE DOING WELL.
HAPPY YOUR FAMILY IS WELL, MOST
IMPORTANT.
IMPORTANT. SINCE YOU’RE HERE, LET’S TALK
ABOUT THE MARKETS.
WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE
RESISTANCE POINTS ON THE DOW?
>> HERE IS THE THING I REALLY
LOVE ABOUT TODAY’S SESSION.
THE DOW WAS UP OVER 700 POINTS.
GAVE IT ALL AWAY, FELT LIKE
TYPICAL BUY THE RUMOR, SELL THE
NEWS, RIGHT?
NEWS, RIGHT? OKAY, THE TWO TRILLION IS OUT
THERE.
THERE. WE KNEW IT WAS COMING.
NOW TO GO BACK IN SELLOFF MODE.
YOU MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE
SHOW WHERE WE HAD BACK-TO-BACK
UP DAYS.
UP DAYS. TO HAVE ANOTHER THOUSAND POINT
REVERSAL TO THE DOWNSIDE, I
DON’T KNOW, THE PATTERN TO BE
THROWING IN THE TOWEL, HANG ON
FOR DEAR LIFE.
THE PATTERN HAS NOT HAPPENED,
DEIRDRE.
DEIRDRE. THE NEWS OUT LOMBARDI, ITALY,
THE DEATH RATE COUNT FOR
YESTERDAY WAS THE LOWEST SINCE I
THINK FEBRUARY 19th OR
21st.
21st. IT HAS BEEN OVER -- JUST THESE
KIND OF SIGNS, NOT JUST FOR
HUMANITY, BUT OF COURSE FOR
AMERICA BECAUSE ULTIMATELY IT
WILL BE HOW OUR ARC GOES, APEX
OF OUR CRISIS IN THIS COUNTRY,
WHEN PEOPLE CAN TRULY GO TO WORK
EN MASSE.
EN MASSE. I LIKE THE RESOLVE OF THIS
MARKET.
MARKET. I WILL SAY WHAT IS AMAZING ABOUT
THIS WEEK, THAT IT HAS BEEN THE
LOSERS, IF YOU WILL, THE BIGGEST
LOSERS IN FACT.
YESTERDAY IF YOU TOOK THE TOP 10
LOSERS FROM THE PULLBACK, FROM
THE PEAK, THE TOP 10% OF THOSE
STOCKS WHO LOST THE MOST, ON
AVERAGE THEY WERE UP 18% EACH.
THE SAME THING IS HAPPENING
TODAY.
TODAY. THE CRUISE LINES ARE UP, THE
AIRLINES ARE UP, CASINOS THAT
WORK OUT OF CHINA ARE UP, SO
THOSE ARE THE THINGS THAT WILL
ULTIMATELY LEAD US HIGHER BUT I
DO SENSE THAT A LOT OF
INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS FEEL LIKE
THIS COULD BE EARLY 2009 WHERE
THEY MISSED IT BEFORE AND THEY
DON’T WANT TO MISS IT THIS TIME.
DEIRDRE: WELL THAT MAKES SENSE.
AS FAR AS JUST THE GROUPS AND
YOU NAMED SOME OF THEM, WHAT
ABOUT BIG TECH FOR EXAMPLE?
THOSE ARE THE ONES WE REALLY SAW
IN THE PAST 11-YEAR BULL MARKET,
ESPECIALLY THE PAST 3 1/2 YEARS,
THEY REALLY LED IT HIGHER, WHAT
DO YOU THINK ABOUT THEM AS A
GROUP?
GROUP? >> BIG TECH WILL DO
EXTRAORDINARY STILL.
EXTRAORDINARY STILL. SOME COMPANIES WITH SUPPLY CHAIN
ISSUES, PEOPLE MAY BE ACTUALLY
LOOKING AT APPLE WHICH HASN’T
ACTED PRETTY GREAT THIS WEEK BUT
SOFTWARE NAMES ARE GOING TO --
OF COURSE THEY DO VERY WELL.
THEY DON’T THOSE SUPPLY CHAIN
ISSUES AND THINGS SORT OF
CHANGING THE WAY WE LIVE.
OBVIOUSLY VIDEOGAME STOCKS HAVE
DONE WELL, VIDEOCONFERENCING
STOCKS HAVE DONE EXTRAORDINARILY
WELL.
WELL. BUT IT IS ALSO TIME TO START
LOOKING BEYOND THE CRISIS,
DEIRDRE.
DEIRDRE. I THINK, I CAME INTO THIS YEAR
WITH A THESIS, INVESTMENT
THESIS, ABOUT HOUSEHOLD
FORMATION, A REBIRTH OF THE
AMERICAN DREAM IF YOU WILL AND I
GOT TO SAY ONE OF THE THINGS I
WILL HAPPEN CULTURALLY OUT OF
THIS, PEOPLE WHO WERE ON THE
FENCE MOVING OUT OF AN
APARTMENT, PARTICULARLY
APARTMENT, PARTICULARLY MILLENIALS, INTO SINGLE-FAMILY
HOUSE, YOU KNOW WHAT?
LET’S GET THE HOME, A LITTLE BIT
OF ELBOW ROOM, A LITTLE BIT OF
SOCIAL DISTANCING IF YOU WILL.
THOSE ARE NAMES, WHILE IT FEELS
EARLY PEOPLE SHOULD HAVE THEM ON
A LIST.
A LIST. HERE IS WHAT CAN HAPPEN.
THERE WILL BE A MAJOR SNAP BACK.
WE WILL WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH,
YOU WILL LOOK AROUND WISHING YOU
BOUGHT SOME OF THE THINGS LONG
BEFORE WE GET THE OFFICIAL ALL
CLEAR.
CLEAR. DEIRDRE: I KNOW THAT YOU HAVE
DONE A TON OF RESEARCH BECAUSE
YOU’VE BEEN KIND ENOUGH TO SHARE
SOME OF THIS WITH ABOUT HOUSING,
EVEN OLDER MILLENIALS 38, 39,
EVEN WITHOUT THIS VIRUS, I
REMEMBER YOU TALK ABOUT THEIR
REASONING SOMETIMES THEY ARE
READY TO MOVE OUT, HAVE A HOUSE,
HAVE KIDS BY THAT POINT AND WE
KNOW RATES ARE PRETTY LOW.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE 30-YEAR
MORTGAGE YOU CAN’T GET A BETTER
RATE ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE
GREAT CREDIT.
GREAT CREDIT. THAT HAS TO HELP.
>> THAT HAS TO HELP AND IT DOES.
FOURTH QUARTER OF LAST YEAR WE
SAW HOUSEHOLD OWNERSHIP FOR 35
AND UNDER I THINK AT THE HIGHEST
LEVEL, I DON’T WANT TO GET IT
WRONG BUT I THINK SINCE 2011,
CERTAINLY SINCE 2013.
IT HAS BEEN CREEPING UP AND
CERTAINLY GETTING BETTER.
THAT IS AN INVESTMENT THEME BUT
I GOT TO TELL YOU, THIS WEEK I
HAD SUBSCRIBERS GO LONG ON
DISNEY, WENT LONG ON BURLINGTON
COAT FACTORY, ADOBE, GARY
KALTBAUM MENTIONED ADOBE, UBER
EATS IS A GRAND SLAM.
THEY’RE CUTTING DEALS WITH THE
OTHER RESTAURANTS.
OTHER RESTAURANTS. HOW WILL WE BE ONCE WE COME OUT
OF THIS?
OF THIS? WE PROBABLY WILL USE UBER EATS A
LOT MORE.
LOT MORE. WE’LL HAVE SOME NEW SOCIAL
DISTANCING HABITS.
DISTANCING HABITS. THOSE THINGS ARE CATCHING MY
ATTENTION.
ATTENTION. OVERALL THOUGH I JUST WANT TO
SEE THIS MARKET SUSTAIN THIS.
WE KNOW WE’LL GO BACK AND FORTH
FOR ON TIME BUT, YOU KNOW, IF
YOU’RE TRYING TO BE PRECISE
ABOUT THIS, IT WILL BE VERY,
VERY DIFFICULT.
VERY DIFFICULT. IF YOU JUST REALIZE AT SOME
POINT THAT WE’LL COME OUT OF
THIS AND, A LOT OF THESE STOCKS
ARE SO OVERSOLD, DEIRDRE, I
THINK FOR MANY PEOPLE TO BE A
GENERATIONAL OPPORTUNITY.
GENERATIONAL OPPORTUNITY. DEIRDRE: BECAUSE YOU’RE RIGHT,
CHARLES, OBVIOUSLY THERE IS MORE
VOLATILITY.
VOLATILITY. ANYTIME WE GET, LET’S CALL IT A
TOUGH NEWS DAY, WHETHER INCREASE
IN CASES OR GOD FORBID, AN
INCREASE IN MORTALITY, THAT WILL
BE A HARD DAY FOR INVESTORS.
GARY KALTBAUM JUST SAYING, THE
MARKETS ARE THE VIRUS.
RIGHT NOW THAT IS REALLY THE
NEWS FLOW, THAT INVESTORS ARE
MAKING DECISIONS ON.
I HEAR WHAT YOU’RE SAYING, FINE,
IT IS VOLATILE.
IF YOU’RE BUYING FOR THE LONG
TERM, PAST IS PRECEDENT, STOCKS
WILL BE HIGHER 10 YEARS FROM NOW
THAN THEY ARE THIS SECOND, FAIR
TO SAY.
TO SAY. >> REAL QUICK, CHINA PICKED THE
BOTTOM.
BOTTOM. A LOT OF FOLKS WILL COME ON AND
SAY WE HAVE TO RETEST THE LOWS.
I DON’T KNOW WE’LL HAVE A
PERFECT DOUBLE-BOTTOM, ALL
CLEAR, AUTOMATIC BUY SIGNAL,
PARTICULARLY SINCE WE’VE GONE
DOWN SO MUCH.
YESTERDAY’S SESSION, THE FOURTH
BEST PERCENTAGE GAINER, TOP FIVE
WERE ALL AROUND THE GREAT
DEPRESSION, HERE IS THE GOOD
NEWS.
NEWS. THREE OF THESE OCCURRED AFTER
BOTTOM WAS PUT IN JULY 3rd,
1932.
1932. THE DOW WAS 41.22.
WE HAD THREE SESSIONS AFTER THAT
WERE HUGE PERCENTAGE GAINS.
KEEP AN EYE ON THE MOVES.
DON’T DISMISS THEM OUT OF HAND.
THEY ARE TELLING YOU A STORY.
DEIRDRE: CHARLES, GREAT TO HAVE
YOU HERE ON YOUR OWN SHOW.