Hi everybody, it's June the 1st.
It's the first day of the 2022 Atlantic
hurricane season and we're tracking a
spot that's cruising over the Yucatan
into the Yucatan Channel that could
possibly develop into our first system.
Possibly first name system of
the 2022 hurricane season.
Just as we're officially getting started.
So that's where our focus is
going to be this evening.
Last year we had 21 named storms.
This year Noah is forecasting
between 14 and 21 named.
Forms which would be at or well above.
The 30 year average of 14 named systems
in an entire season now we had a
very busy season last year and their
forecasting a busy season this year.
Why was the season so busy last
year and why are they forecasting
a busy season this year?
It's the same conditions we
had going into 2021.
We've got going into 2022.
First of all,
sea surface temperatures in the Gulf,
the Carib and the open Atlantic
are running above normal 3 to
5 degrees above normal now.
Just because you have above normal
sea surface temperatures does not.
Automatically mean that you're going
to get an increase in the number of
storms or an increase in the intensity
of the storms that you do get.
But it does tell you that there's
plenty of energy out here,
and if wind conditions are correct,
you could get a lot of storms.
Or the ones that form could
become quite strong.
That would be these wind conditions.
Would it be because we'd have lighter
upper level winds out here and that
would be a result of the La Nina
conditions that are present in the Pacific.
The Equatorial Pacific is way below normal.
The surface trade winds have blown
all the warm air way off to the
West into the western Pacific and.
Upwelled cold air from underneath,
and so we've got well below
normal sea surface temperatures
in the Equatorial Atlantic.
That's la Nina.
Now what La Nina tends to do,
as we've tracked this over the years.
Is give us lighter upper level and mid level
winds over the Atlantic Basin lighter winds?
Means we get storms that are more likely to
become vertically stacked and become strong,
healthy storms when you have strong
upper level winds like you quite
often get during El Nino conditions.
Quite often the storms get tilted over,
blown apart.
They don't have a chance to get going,
so la nemia like we're in right now
tends to allow storms to not only form.
Quicker,
but perhaps become more intense.
That's what happened last year,
and it may happen again this
year as the same conditions are
present names on the list for 2022.
Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle.
We'll keep track of them if
we go through 21 of them.
Looks like we'd get all the way to Tobias,
Virginia and near Walter.
OK,
so in the Yucatan channel right here,
the space between the Yucatan
Peninsula and the western tip
of Cuba. We're trying to
get something brewing here.
Looking at the high Resolution infrared
satellite, we've got a blossom of
thunderstorm activity here over the
Northwest Caribbean Sea. Got a blossom,
a thunderstorm South of Cozumel?
But upon closer inspection.
Where winds are trying to actually close
off a low is here just South of Cozumel,
so this is the spot right here where the
Hurricane Center is watching for the
genesis of some possible development.
Now that this little swirls moved over,
the warm waters of the Caribbean,
we might get some development
here in the next 48 hours.
Now as we look at areas of possible
development right now in the Atlantic Basin,
there are actually two of them.
This is the spot in question.
This is a spot hurricanes are
giving this a 10% chance for
development over the next five days.
What there is of this,
if anything gets going,
we'll wander out into the open
Atlantic Ocean so that spot we're
going to leave it on the back burner.
It's this one that we're focused on,
and they've put that little X right
there where we saw that little
swirl taking place at the surface.
And now as of this evening,
80% chance that this develops
in the next 48 hours right here
in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico.
So Miami, South Florida,
you would be most likely impacted
if something were to develop there.
This is the European model and
it continues to have, I think,
a pretty good handle on the
possibility of a swirl forming,
maybe a tropical depression,
maybe a tropical storm and we
could have a system sitting off
the coast of the Gulf Coast of
Florida between Tampa and Key West.
As we head into early Saturday morning.
It would be a lopsided system.
There's wind shear will probably
be blowing this and tilting it
off to the east a little bit.
This would be a rain maker for
Central and South Florida,
South Florida in particular
as we head into the weekend.
Why would it be heading that way?
At the surface,
we've got a frontal boundary
pushing in from the north,
and we've also got a high
pressure Dome behind that.
That's a mountain of air,
so that will push and keep this
away from moving into the central or
Western Gulf Coast and eventually
push it and move it up.
The East Coast of the United States.
So that's the big steering mechanism.
For this potential system,
let's take a look at the two
different models.
We look at the European model
in detail there.
This is the euro and the GFS,
the American model.
The American model is in yellow.
The European model is in red.
Both the euro in red and the GFS
in yellow do close off a low,
so they're both forecasting at
least a tropical depression to form
off the southern tip of Florida
on the Gulf Coast side.
But nothing too terribly intense,
so this does not look like a big wind.
Threat for you guys.
Florida, it looks like a heavy rain
threat through Friday evening,
Saturday and probably also a
big chunk of Sunday after that.
Both the euro and the GFS take a low
pressure out of the open Atlantic.
Look what the euro does
the euro really cranks it?
GFS, the American model,
does not have nearly the
intensity of the euro.
Does maybe in North Breeze off
the East Coast of the United
States as we head into Monday,
Tuesday and then the GFS kind of
loses it and the euro just cranks a
vigorous low pressure area southeast
of Halifax and South of Saint
Johns as we head into Wednesday.
So that's interesting.
GFS loses it. Euro cranks it.
You know when this is typical of
computer models that are trying to
forecast a tropical entity that has
not formed yet and you get some of
these strange divergences between the models.
When that's happening,
rainfall over the next five days
light scattered showers across
most of the Gulf Coast,
and then here's all the rain from
whatever tries to form down here
in the in the Gulf of Mexico.
And you know, South of Tampa.
That's all the rain is Tampa northward.
You may not get much rain at all.
There'll be a very tight rainfall gradient,
depending on the exact.
Back of this thing,
but basically Fort Pierce South
to Miami and down across the Keys,
5 to 7 inches of rain I think is
likely as we head through Friday evening,
Saturday and then through Sunday morning,
I think by Sunday afternoon you'll
be drying out so heavy rainfall,
the greatest threat from this
tropical system.
Questions or comments on this
first day of hurricane season?
That's where we stand right now.
Leave the comments here. I read them.
Any feedback is welcome.
We'll check back with you tomorrow
for another update.