THAN IT IS TO RUSSIA.
SO I'M HOPEFUL THAT HE DOES NOT
GET ENGAGED.
>> JOINING ME NOW IS THE FORM
ARE U.S. DEPUTY NATIONAL
SECURITY ADVISER UNDER -- INSIDE
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, MATT
POTTINGER.
MATT, IT'S GOOD TO HAVE YOU
BACK.
LET ME START WITH THIS AND GET
YOU TO REACT TO THE NATO
STATEMENT YESTERDAY AND IN YOUR
EXPERIENCE WHAT THE CHINESE
HEARD WHEN THEY READ THE
STATEMENT.
"WE CALL ON ALL STATES, INCLUDES
PEEP
THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
TO ABSTAIN FROM SUPPORTING
RUSSIA'S WAR EFFORT IN ANY WAY
AND TO REFRAIN FROM ANY ACTION
THAT HELPS RUSSIA CIRCUMVENT
SANCTIONS.
OBVIOUSLY I KNOW WHAT THAT SAYS
TO AN AMERICAN AUDIENCE, BUT
WHAT IS THE PRC -- HOW WOULD
THEY BE INTERPRETING THIS
STATEMENT AND WHAT DO YOU EXPECT
THEM TO DO IN RESPONSE?
>> SURE.
GOOD TO BE WITH YOU, CHUCK.
WHAT IT SHOWS IS THAT BEIJING'S
ATTEMPTED STRATEGY HERE IS NOT
WORKING.
THE STRATEGY ALL ALONG WAS TO
QUIETLY UNDERWRITE AND SUPPORT
VLADIMIR PUTIN AND HIS WAR IN
EUROPE BUT PRETEND TO BE A
NEUTRAL PLAYER AND SOMEONE WHO
COULD STEP IN AND MEDIATE.
THE WORLD'S NOT BUYING IT
BECAUSE THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION
HAS BEEN SKILLFUL IN AUTHORIZING
THE RELEASE OF INTELLIGENCE THAT
SHOWS JUST HOW CLOSE THOSE TIES
ARE, SHOWS THAT XI JINPING
DISCUSSED THE TIMING OF THE WAR
IN UKRAINE ALL THE WAY BACK IN
EARLY FEBRUARY WHEN THEY SIGNED
THEIR COMMUNIQUE TOGETHER AT THE
OPENING OF THE BEIJING OLYMPICS.
THEY'VE SHOWN THAT THE WEST IS
AWARE, HAS THE INTELLIGENCE AND
THE WHEREWITHAL TO MONITOR ANY
FINANCIAL SUPPORT THAT BEIJING
MIGHT PROVIDE TO PUTIN TO EVADE
SANCTIONS OR MILITARY MATERIAL,
AS YOU MENTIONED.
SO THE WEST IS BASICALLY SAYING
WE GOT YOUR NUMBER, WE KNOW WHAT
YOU'RE DOING, WE KNOW WHAT
YOU'RE CONTEMPLATING, YOU WILL
GET CAUGHT AND THERE WILL BE
CONSEQUENCES.
>> IT SEEMS THE PLACE THAT I
GUESS EXPERTS I TALK TO THINK IS
THE MOST LIKELY WAY CHINA MIGHT
QUIETLY TRY TO HELP RUSSIA IS
SIMPLY ENERGY CONTRACTS,
PURCHASING WHATEVER ENERGY THEY
CAN'T SELL TO EUROPE.
IF THAT IS WHAT WE SEE THEM
DOING, WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE
SHOULD BE THE POLICY RESPONSE?
>> YEAH.
WELL, FIRST OF ALL, I'M NOT SURE
THAT IT WILL BE LIMITED TO THAT.
I THINK WE SHOULD EXPECT WHAT
YOU JUST LAID OUT BUT LOOK AT
WHAT BEIJING HAS DONE FOR NORTH
KOREA AND FOR IRAN OVER THE
YEARS, AS THOSE TWO COUNTRIES
HAVE BEEN UNDER U.N. SANCTIONS,
AS WELL AS U.S. SANCTIONS.
BEIJING HAS, YOU KNOW, PITCHED A
LIFELINE TO BOTH OF THOSE
COUNTRIES TO KEEP THEM APRILFLOA
NOT TO MAKE UP TO THE MASSIVE
LOSSES TO THEIR ECONOMIES FROM
THOSE SANCTIONS BUT TO GIVE THEM
A LIFELINE, TO BUY OIL, PROVIDE
OIL IN THE CASE OF NORTH KOREA
AND CREATE SESSION PURPOSE
FINANCIAL VEHICLES THAT ARE
DESIGNED SPECIALLY TO EVADE
SANCTIONS.
I THINK WE SHOULD EXPECT BEIJING
WILL DO WHAT IT'S DONE IN THOSE
TWO EXAMPLES OF IRAN AND NORTH
KOREA AND REPEAT THAT FOR
RUSSIA.
NOW, THE OIL SECTOR, OIL AND GAS
IS THE ONE AREA THAT WE HAVE NOT
GONE ALL IN ON.
I THINK THAT THERE'S SOME LODGEG
IN NOT GOING ALL THE WAY JUST
YET, LEAVING A LITTLE BIT OF
SPACE FOR AN OFF RAMP, BUT
BEIJING IS GOING TO GET CAUGHT
IN THAT WEB IF THE WEST DECIDES
THAT IT WANTS TO GO AFTER THE
ENERGY EXPORTS, TOO.
>> I GUESS THE QUESTION I HAVE,
THOUGH, IS WHAT KIND OF STOMACH
IS EITHER THE EU OR THE UNITED
STATES, WE ARE IN AN UNSTABLE
ECONOMY THANKS TO INFLATION,
THANKS TO SUPPLY CHAIN, ENERGY
ISSUE, COVID, ET CETERA.
WHAT KIND OF PUNISHMENT COULD WE
LEVEL ON CHINA THAT DOESN'T
ALREADY CREATE A MORE DISRUPTIVE
ECONOMY, WHICH WE ALL KNOW,
EVERY INTERNATIONAL LEADER HERE,
INCLUDING OUR PRESIDENT AND
GERMANY'S CHANCELLOR, THEY HAVE
ONE EYE ON THEIR DOMESTIC
REACTION, TOO.
WHAT IS SOMETHING THAT'S
REALISTIC?
>> YEAH, WELL, LOOK, YOU PUT
YOUR FINGER ON IT.
IT'S THE WORD STOMACH OR WE
COULD SAY WILL, RIGHT?
WE'RE SENDING MIXED SIGNALS
RIGHT NOW.
THE SIGNAL THAT WE WANT TO SEND
IS THE SIGNAL THAT WE'RE SENDING
WITH THE GALVANIZED SOLIDARITY
OF THE WEST AGAINST RUSSIA.
WE'RE WILLING TO EAT ECONOMIC
PAIN AND DISRUPTION AS THE COST
OF MAINTAINING THE SOVEREIGNTY
AND STABILITY OF EUROPE AND SO
THAT IS A VERY EFFECTIVE SIGNAL
BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE'RE
SENDING A CONTRADICTORY SIGNAL
WHEN WE, FOR EXAMPLE, SAY THAT
WE'RE GOING TO NEGOTIATE WITH
IRAN TO RELIEVE THEIR -- GIVE
THEM SANCTIONS RELIEF IN RETURN,
ALLOW THEM TO SELL OIL BECAUSE
WE'RE WORRIED ABOUT THE RISING
PRICE OF GAS AT THE GAS PUMP.
THAT IS A CONTRADICTORY SIGNAL.
BEIJING IS GOING TO READ BOTH OF
THOSE AND KNOWING XI JINPING,
HE'S PROBABLY GOING TO LOOK FOR
THOSE SIGNALS OF WEAKNESS AND
HAVE A BIAS TOWARD THOSE SIGNALS
AS BEING WHERE WE REALLY ARE.
WE'VE GOT TO REALLY STOP THAT
NEGOTIATION.
>> HE DOES HAVE A LITTLE -- WHAT
INTERNAL PRESSURE DOES HE HAVE
ABOUT HIS ECONOMY, THOUGH?
HE'S GOT A LITTLE BIT TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT HIMSELF, NO?
>> LOOK, THE THINGS HE'S DOING
ARE NOT IN CHINA'S INTERESTS BUT
HE BELIEVES THAT THEY ARE IN HIS
PERSONAL INTEREST.
RIGHT NOW HE'S A DICTATOR.
WE'VE ERASED -- HE HAS ERASED
LITERALLY FROM HISTORY, HE JUST
DID A HUNDRED YEAR RETROSPECTIVE
OF COMMUNIST PARTY HISTORY AND
DENOTED HIS THREE IMMEDIATE
PREDECESSORS AND HE'S GONE BACK
TO TAKING A PAGE WHERE HE'S
ELEVATED HIMSELF AS AN
ALL-POWERFUL DICTATOR.
I DON'T THINK HE CARES ABOUT
ECONOMIC GROWTH EXCEPT AS A VERY
DISTANT SECOND PRIORITY TO HIS
OWN AUTHORITY AND POWER.
>> THAT IS, SHALL WE SAY, AN
UNFORTUNATE CHANGE IN
PERSPECTIVE THAT I THINK
PROBABLY HAS TO CHANGE OUR OWN
PERSPECTIVE WHEN IT COMES TO
CHINA.