As the war in Ukraine continues,
attention is growing on neighbouring Moldova and its breakaway region of Transnistria.
With reports of increasing unrest,
there are suggestions that it could well be Moscow's next target.
But what is the Transnistria issue all about?
And how could developments in Ukraine
shape efforts to resolve this long-standing dispute - peacefully or otherwise?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security and statehood.
The conflict in Ukraine has thrown the spotlight on the seemingly frozen conflicts around the
former Soviet Union, such as the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia.
But the issue that's attracted most attention is the long-standing dispute over Transnistria.
As Russian forces try to take control of southern Ukraine, there's been growing speculation that
they may attempt to link up with the 1500 Russian troops stationed in Transnistria - either as a
prelude to an attack on western Ukraine or perhaps even as an attempt to take control of Moldova.
Such fears have not only been fed by images from Belarus seemingly showing
Russian plans to attack Transnistria, but also by comments from a Russian general that this
was in fact one of Moscow's war aims - a claim strongly denied by Russia.
And it's for all these reasons that the conflict in Ukraine
has raised some important questions about the future of Transnistria.
Moldova lies in southeast Europe, between Romania and Ukraine.
At 34,000 square kilometres, or 13,000 square miles,
it's the 134th largest member of the United Nations.
Its population currently stands at around 2.6 million.
Predominantly made up of Romanian-speaking Moldovans,
Ukrainians and Russians make up around seven and four percent of the population respectively.
Transnistria, also called Trans-Dniester, lies at the eastern edge of Moldova.
At 4,200 square kilometres, or 1600 square miles,
it constitutes a little over 10 of Moldova's territory.
According to the most recent 2015 census, the population stood at 475,000.
This is roughly equally divided between the three main ethnic groups:
Russians and Moldovans representing around 29 per cent each, and Ukrainians at around 23 per cent.
Moldova originated with the Principality of Moldavia.
In 1812, the Ottoman Empire ceded Moldavia's eastern provinces - an
area known as Bessarabia - to Imperial Russia.
And while western Moldavia later united with the neighbouring Principality of Wallachia
to form the kingdom of Romania in 1881, Bessarabia remained under Russian rule.
This lasted until 1917.
Following the Russian Revolution,
local leaders declared independence before finally uniting with Romania just months later.
However, the newly established Soviet Union never accepted the unification
and in 1924 it established an alternative administration within Soviet Ukraine.
The Moldavian Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic was located on the east bank of Dniester River,
a prominently slavic area known as Trans-Dniester
that wasn't traditionally considered to be a part of Romanian-speaking Bessarabia.
This became crucial when the Soviet Union seized control of Bessarabia
following the start of the Second World War.
On 2 August 1940, the two areas - Bessarabia and Trans-Dniester - became the Moldovan
Soviet Socialist Republic, one of the 15 top level republics of the USSR.
Over the following decades, Moscow altered the demographic balance in the republic and by 1989
Romanian-speaking Moldovans represented around two-thirds of the population;
with Ukrainians and Russians representing around 13 per cent each.
However, as the Soviet Union weakened,
Moldovan leaders increasingly reasserted their Romanian-Moldovan identity.
This led to tensions with Transnistria,
where the largely slavic population retained closer ties to Moscow.
The situation would change radically in August 1991.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Transnistria
unilaterally declared independence creating the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic.
Six months later, on 2 March 1992, the day the now independent Republic of Moldova joined the UN,
major fighting erupted between Moldovan troops and Transnistrian forces.
And it was at this point that the Russian army stationed in Transnistria
stepped in to defend the breakaway republic.
After four and a half months of conflict,
and following around a thousand deaths, the sides agreed a ceasefire in July that year.
As well as allowing a contingent of Russian troops to remain in place
as part of an agreed peacekeeping force, Moscow also retained a separate contingent
of troops in Transnistria - forces that remain in place to this day,
despite a call from the UN General Assembly for their withdrawal.
All this meant that while Transnistria was still internationally unrecognised,
including by Russia, it now became a de facto state under Moscow's protection.
In the years that followed, efforts were made to try to resolve the conflict under
the auspices of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe,
Russia, Ukraine, the European Union and the United States.
However, a solution proved impossible.
Moldova had little desire to hand too much power to Transnistria,
especially if that also gave Russia a say in internal Moldovan affairs.
Meanwhile, Transnistria's leaders, happy with the financial support they received from Russia,
had no wish to give up the criminal statelet that they'd created.
More to the point, the dispute became a useful bargaining chip
for Moscow as it effectively blocked Moldova from pursuing European Union and NATO membership.
All this has meant that while the two sides have been increasingly willing
to interact with each other, and the conflict certainly isn't marked by the tensions we see
in other such disputes, they also seem to be comfortable with the status quo.
The trouble is that this settled situation now appears to be at risk with the war in Ukraine.
So, what could happen next?
Obviously, the most worrying immediate prospect is that Russia invades Transnistria.
While this looks unlikely just at this stage given the way that the war is unfolding,
it would have a profound impact.
Moscow would almost certainly recognise Transnistria as independent and this
could well be followed by annexation - as happened with Crimea and increasingly seems
likely to happen with Donbas and other areas Russia is seizing across southern Ukraine.
Of course, this would be an enormously worrying development.
Transnistria would move from being a Russian-occupied de facto state
to being Russian annexed territory.
This would almost certainly have a profound effect on Transnistria's population,
who may well find themselves cut off from the rest of Moldova and the wider world.
This could well see many Moldovans and Ukrainians leave with only Russians remaining.
Indeed, there already seemed to be signs of this happening.
However, it wouldn't change the legal basis of the dispute.
Transnistria would still be regarded by the wider international community
as a part of Moldova and would officially remain an unresolved conflict.
This could potentially lead the door open to an eventual settlement in the post-Putin era.
But obviously any changes on the ground in the meantime would become
more entrenched as time passes.
This brings us to the second possibility: Moldova now tries to retake Transnistria by force.
With Russia caught up in Ukraine this might seem an ideal moment to try this.
And certainly going by other examples, such as Azerbaijan's campaign against Nagorno-Karabakh
in November 2020, there'd be little wider international opposition if Moldova did try it.
However, it also seems highly unlikely.
For a start, the Moldovan government has
publicly stated its commitment to a peaceful settlement of the issue.
More to the point, there's little indication that Moldova has the strength to do it.
Even though it's understood that Russia's own force in Transnistria
is relatively weak, the Moldovan army is small and poorly equipped.
On top of this, it could also inflame tensions with Moscow
in unexpected and potentially devastating ways.
If it seemed likely to lose control of Transnistria,
Russia could well feel the need to respond with a display of force - opening
up the possibility of airstrikes on Moldovan cities and civilian targets.
Of course, Moldova could look to get outside help, but the options here are limited.
Neighbouring Romania, which assisted in 1992, can't take a direct role this time.
As a NATO member, its involvement could lead to a serious confrontation between Russia and the West.
That said, there's another possible scenario to watch out for.
Ukraine might yet launch an attack on the Russian forces in Transnistria,
especially as this would help to secure its southwestern flank.
While there's no sign of this just now, this could well happen if,
as some in Ukraine suggest, Transnistria is preparing to join the attack on the country.
This may yet be one of the big unexpected surprises of the Ukraine War at some stage.
The third option is to use the opportunity to push for a negotiated settlement.
But this also seems hard to see happening.
For a start, it's unclear how talks could start for as long as the war in Ukraine continues.
The leaders in Transnistria would presumably not want to give up their claim to independence
for as long as there's still a hope that Russia might yet reach them.
And, even if they did, Russia's military presence on the ground
would seemingly stop them from going behind Moscow's back.
But things could potentially start to change if the war goes badly for Russia
and Moscow is no longer able to help Transnistria politically, militarily or financially.
But, even then, reaching a deal may well prove extremely difficult.
Would Moldova be willing to offer a high degree of autonomy,
or even a federal settlement, if Transnistria looked to be weakened.
Given all this, some have also suggested that it might make more sense for Moldova
just to ditch the problem altogether and accept Transnistria's independence.
Obviously, this is extremely unlikely. States very rarely let go of territory voluntarily.
However privately many Moldovans may at least think about it;
especially as such debates are usual in secessionist conflicts.
On the surface, it would seemingly carry some advantages.
Apart from apparently ending a long-running dispute,
it would also potentially open other options for Moldova.
It would make European Union membership easier, for example.
It could even open the door to NATO membership - although this
is currently off the table while Moldova has a constitutional commitment to neutrality.
It could even make union with neighbouring Romania
achievable - if that's what the two countries wanted.
But it also carries major problems.
Unlike other secessionist disputes that are usually centered on distinct ethnic groups,
roughly a third of Transnistria's population is Moldovan.
It would be very difficult for Moldova to cut them loose.
More to the point, there are wider geopolitical complications.
There would be fears that an independent Transnistria could well become another
Russian client state squeezed between Ukraine and Moldova.
And what if it then decided on union with Russia?
Transnistria would become a Russian exclave;
rather like Kaliningrad that's squeezed between Poland and Lithuania.
Of course, there's the argument that if it did become independent,
Transnistria could then develop closer relations with the west.
But this seems unlikely given Russia's strong presence there.
For all these reasons, and despite the tumultuous events in Ukraine, one can't
discount the possibility that Transnistria could well just remain a frozen conflict.
Rather than be resolved either peacefully or through armed force,
we may just see a continuation of the status quo - albeit within a new
geopolitical context of an extremely tense relationship between Russia and the West.
That said, there seems to be a growing sense that the future of Transnistria,
and of Moldova more generally, could well rest on the course of the ongoing war in Ukraine.
And if you're interested in more about the Ukraine conflict, or even the possibility
of unification between Moldova and Romania, here are some more videos for you to watch.