In December of 2019 the Sun entered its 25th solar cycle and according to consensus predictions,
sunspot activity was expected to ramp up in 2020 before peaking in July of the year 2025.
However, For the last few years our star has been in a slumber, with a decline in sunspot
numbers, and with relatively few bright flares or massive coronal ejections emanating from
its surface.
That was until just recently when the sun began heating up.
On may 7 a sunspot named AR 2822 exploded producing an M3.9 class solar flare, one of
the strongest in quite some time.
The solar storm caused a widespread radio blackout over North America.
Although the solar flare didn't cause any noticeable damage, it still raises the question
as to whether America is ready to face a major solar storm that is directed towards Earth.
The probability of a solar superstorm affecting the Earth's communication systems is quite
real, and we only have to look back to the year 1921 as evidence that this has already
occurred.
One hundred years ago, on the 15th of May 1921, a powerful geomagnetic storm caused
telegraph and telephone lines in the U.S. and from around the world to fuse out.
As a result of the malfunction, equipment was damaged, connections were severed and
undersea telegraph cable service was interrupted.
Auroras appeared as far south as southern, California, making the night sky so bright
in Boston that you could read a newspaper.
As a result of the superstorm, the railroad switching system in New York was destroyed,
and so the event became known as the "New York Railroad Super Storm of 1921.
Earth was hit hard by CME solar flares for 3 consecutive days back then, which weakened
and then penetrated the Earth's natural defenses.
An event similar or greater in magnitude is expected to take place again, and when it
does the after effects will make the recent pandemic seem like a walk in the park, and
so we must be ready.
One of the most vulnerable systems at risk is our global positioning system.
The GPS signals have been incorporated into virtually every network technology on the
planet, including telecommunications, the internet, ATM's and credit card transactions.
The electronic equipment onboard these satellites is very sensitive and can be easily damaged
or destroyed by incoming solar flares and so their security is a high priority.
GPS satellites are positioned 12,000 miles above the Earth, where they circle the globe
twice a day, this makes them defenseless against a powerful solar event.
If the GPS shuts down, it could easily become a single point of failure for America and
for much of the world, creating a state of economic and security chaos.
Yet despite the vulnerabilities and the threats posed by severe solar activity, the U.S. has
thus far failed to implement an alternative plan in the event of a GPS malfunction.
Without a doubt, the powerful CME's are a recurring phenomena, and they are a looming
danger to our planet.
The first recorded event of its danger took place during the Carrington Event of Sept
1859 with the burning of telegraph communications, as well as the remarkable night skies, where
auroras migrated far into the tropics.
It was a brief moment in time in which the sun touched the Earth.
In our recent past a powerful CME passed through the Earth's orbit, which if it had occurred
several days earlier, would have impacted Earth.
Solar events like this one are not as rare as once thought.
Most recently, the deputy director of the national center for atmospheric research concluded
that the next 10 years will be a particularly dangerous time, possibly the most active period
since the 1970's Of particular concern is the GPS.
Within the next decade, there is a 35-45% chance that a CME will disrupt GPS service
across the Globe for many days or weeks.
Even more concerning is the chance of a Carrington level Solar Flare this decade, which has a
4-12 percent likely hood of taking place.
Granted these are estimates, and its always a possibility that the scenario will never
play out, at least in our lifetime, but the damage to America, if it were to occur, would
be difficult to comprehend, since we are behind the 8 ball when it comes to alternative forms
of telecommunications in the event of a GPS breakdown.
You would think that government preparations would be a high priority when combating existential
threats from space.
They have known about the threat for years, but have been slow to act.
A plan to have a terrestrial backup of our GPS systems in the event of a catastrophic
failure has been in the works since 2004, and yet nothing has ever been done to fully
secure the technology.
Yet Even with the most concerted government efforts, it would not be enough to make us
safer from solar storms since it would require at least 5 or 6 years to establish systems
and protect vital services, which would take us well into the upcoming solar danger zone.
Every day becomes a ticking time bomb, and so we must act, and do so quickly, before
time runs thin.
2021 has been a very active year for meteor and fireball events in our sky.
There has also been a noticeable increase in the number of asteroid close encounters
coming within 1 LD of the Earth.
Lets have a look at some of the reported events in our sky for the week of May 13.
A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2021 JU6 flew past Earth at a distance of 0.17
LD (65 820 km / 40 900 miles) from the center of our planet on May 14, 2021.
2021 JU6 was first observed at Palomar Mountain observatory in California on May 14, on the
same day it made its close approach to our planet.
The object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between
8.9 and 20 m (29 - 65 feet).
This now becomes the 57th known asteroid to fly by Earth within 1 lunar distance since
the start of the year and the 6th so far this month, outpacing the numbers for this time
last year.
There are moments in time when confronted with feelings of uneasiness that we begin
to doubt our purpose in life And yet despite the uncertainty , take heart in knowing that
every life is unique and it happens only once, in the infinite rhelm of the universe there
will never be another you.
Stay Safe everyone, thanks for watching, and always keep looking to
the sky.