And to discuss the state of war in Ukraine. We turn once again to
Michael Kaufman, Research program director in the Russia Studies
Program at the Center for Naval Analyses. Michael Kaufman. Good to
have you back on the program. What's the significance of Russian
forces seizing all of the Luhansk region?
Well, like with those two main cities now that they have the rest
of the region there at least part of the way towards their political
objective, which is seizing the entire administrative territory of
the Donbass, however.
A lot of the harder fighting is still ahead for the Russian military.
The Ukrainian military conducted it would draw from that area and
they are now building a new defensive line. They're going to fortify
around the main cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
And so well, you could say that Russia has made incremental or fitful
progress. It's still very far short of their actual political goals.
So far in this war so short term Russia's ability to seize those
territories in the Donets region, Slovyansk Kramatorsk, Why will
it be difficult for them to do that? Just in the short term?
Those areas are more fortified, and the Russian military, like the
Ukrainian military has taken very substantial losses. So this has
become a grinding war nutrition, territorial gains to tend to be
incremental at best.
And they required tremendous amount of use of artillery and other
types of fire. So I suspect that we're going to see battles grind
on Donbass at least the next month or two.
The outcome of courses and determinant. These things are very difficult
to predict. But even if the Russian military is able to take this
part of the dawn, boss, alright, these successes are not decisive
Losses for Ukraine ultimately,
In the Russian military is likely to pay a substantial price and
trying to gain territory and so longer term as you say, a war of
attrition. That's what both militaries have to fight. What's going
to determine Russia's ability.
To sustain that fight.
You know, at the end of the day, these wars often come down to manpower
material who's able to replace their losses, the best who is able
to adjust and build a force against sustain the conflict.
Both sides have significant challenges. The Russian military enjoys
a local advantage, particularly advantage in firepower. Artillery
in the dumbass. The Ukrainian military right now is in a bit of a
valley in terms of equipment and capability. It's solely trying to
assimilate Western equipment artillery and trying to change the kind
of equipment ammunitions. The force depends on
So this is a very challenging time for the Ukrainian military, probably
the coming two months in particular. That said the Ukraine somewhat
enjoys long term advantages in this war that is conditioned on sustained
Western support because Ukraine has the manpower NFS access
To Western military equipment and training to use that equipment
over time, it can develop significant advantages. Ukrainian officials
are talking about launching counter offensives against the Russian
forces using those heavier weapons that you just talked about. How
will those weapons affect Ukraine's ability to re seize territory
that Russia's occupied?
If at all.
Western military equipment, particularly different types of artillery
systems will help equalize the current substantial disadvantage.
The Ukraine has relative to the master Russian artillery firepower.
That's right now Both forces are only kind of capable of localized
attacks. Ukraine has been conducting small, localized counter offensives
and other parts of the front, trying to set themselves up in a better
position down the line.
Neither military really has the force capacity left for big offensive
or break out attacks, the kind of things that can generate momentum
right nor is either a military close to collapse over time. Ukraine
may be in a position to conduct
Is substantial counter offensive, perhaps in one of the other regions
like your son, but that doesn't just depend on military equipment.
People tend to fix that military equipment and technology and capabilities.
They make a significant difference. They rarely game changers. You
have to look at the quality of the force.
And you have to look at the overall military. And so do you believe
that on the Russian side they can wage the same kind of war they've
been waging in the East indefinitely.
Well, it definitely is a very hard test to pass. I'm not sure anything
can be wasting definitely. But the Russian military is playing to
a strength, leveraging massed artillery firepower right, which minimizes
the disadvantages and problems that has on the force.
And taking territory incremental. Yes, they can sustain it for quite
some time. But they, too have big challenges. When it comes to manpower
sustainment of this fight and the solutions they've taken to keep
the Russian military in the fight and what it's likely to be a protracted
war have their own drawbacks. They come
At the expense of long term degradation of the Russian force, so
they may not be the absolute sustainable when we pull it into a much
longer time line.
Michael Kaufman. Thank you very much. Thanks for having me back on