When Russia invaded Ukraine back in February, it was initially described as a “special military operation"
The supposed objective of this was to “demilitarise and denazify'' the country.
Putin had likely expected a quick victory, but now, after months of war, there doesn’t
seem to be an end in sight.
In this video, I’m going to talk about how this war might come to an end.
I'm going to focus mainly on a diplomatic solution, but first let’s take a quick look
at some other scenarios.
First, there could be a stalemate.
In that case, parts of Ukraine would continue to be under Russian occupation.
With the continued threat of conflict, rebuilding of the country and resettling refugees would
be very difficult.
Next, there could be further escalation, with the invasion even going beyond Ukraine’s
borders, possibly to Moldova or Georgia.
There could even be direct conflict between Russia and NATO, which would be a very precarious
situation, that would turn a regional conflict into a global one, which would bring us dangerously
close to descending into some kind of WWIII-type scenario.
Another possibility is that one side could win a military victory.
Given the sheer size of Ukraine though, it’s very unlikely that Russia could manage it;
and Ukraine going on the offensive and pushing the Russian forces back to the border seems
equally implausible.
Finally, this war might end if Putin were ousted as president.
The most likely to be able to remove him from power would be the billionaire oligarchs,
who command immense political power in Russia, but it’s anyone’s guess as to what it
might take from them to try and whether or not they would actually succeed.
Okay, so with that out of the way, let’s talk about a diplomatic solution.
In the last major round of peace talks in Turkey, Russia and Ukraine had 6 key points of discussion:
1) Ukrainian neutrality 2) Disarmament of Ukraine, and their security guarantee 3) The denazification of Ukraine
4) Suppression of the Russian language in Ukraine
5) The Donbass region and the two breakaway republics; and finally,
6) Crimea
I’ll go over each of these six points one by one.
So starting with point #1, Ukrainian neutrality.
Ukraine has wanted to join NATO for a few years now.
At the 2008 NATO summit, leaders of the alliance pledged that Ukraine would join NATO.
And in 2019, the country amended its constitution to include the goal of joining both the EU
and NATO.
Because of Ukraine’s border with Russia, plus the historical ties between the two countries,
Putin has always been fiercely opposed to this.
Putin has claimed that having NATO members on Russia’s border is a threat to their
national security; going as far as calling Ukraine in NATO a “red line” issue.
Putin has criticised the alliance for its significant eastward expansion since the end
of the Cold War, given that NATO has greatly expanded its membership since the fall of
the Iron Curtain.
Therefore, Ukraine becoming a neutral state is a main priority for Putin.
This would provide Russia with a buffer between themselves and NATO.
To end this war, Putin would almost certainly require an agreement from Ukraine that the
country will not join NATO.
From the Ukrainian perspective, it's a difficult situation to be in.
On the one hand, joining NATO would be the best way to defend themselves against Russian
aggression… but, somewhat paradoxically, the very act of discussing membership has
only exacerbated the tensions with Russia.
Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has admitted that at this stage it does seem
unlikely that Ukraine joining NATO is a possibility.
However, he has said that any change to the country’s stated position in this regard
would require a referendum, and only after the withdrawal of Russian troops.
Only time will tell if he’ll stick to this statement or not, especially since it’s
unclear which way the people of Ukraine would vote.
Of course, if Ukraine agreed not to join NATO, how could the country feel safe from any future
Russian aggression?
This brings us on to point #2 - security guarantee and disarmament.
Ukraine needs assurance of its safety, and Russia wants the demilitarisation of Ukraine
in some capacity.
This point alone means that any peace treaty could not be simply a bilateral agreement
between just Russia and Ukraine.
A 3rd party would need to be involved to guarantee the security of Ukraine.
Realistically, this would have to be NATO, or at the very least, a NATO member.
They’re the only one capable of being enough of a deterrent to Russia.
It’s not clear what the Russian delegation is looking for in terms of disarmament.
This may be restrictions on military personnel, tanks and aircraft, or perhaps even specific
types of weapons.
For example, long-range missiles capable of striking Moscow.
Or it could simply be to return all weapons received from NATO countries.
Obviously, Ukraine would not want to put itself in danger by restricting its military, so
it would need to be 100% sure of the strength and legality of any security guarantee.
Zelenskyy has gone as far as to say he would need something akin to NATO’s article 5:
an attack on one is an attack on all.
In which case, any attack on Ukraine would oblige all NATO countries to respond.
Ukraine will be understandably cautious with this key point of discussion, especially given
what has happened in the past.
In 1994, Ukraine signed an agreement called the Budapest Memorandum, in which the country
gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances from several countries.
Among these, ironically enough, was Russia, but also the NATO members of the US and the UK
As both 2014 and 2022 have shown, none of the signatories of the agreement came to Ukraine’s aid.
Point #3 is the “deNazification” of Ukraine.
Now, it would be very easy to simply dismiss this point as Russian propaganda, but there
actually is some truth to it.
Certainly nowhere near enough to justify an invasion, but let’s take a closer look.
So who are these guys pictured in the article?
They’re called the Azov Battalion.
The group was founded in 2014, which began as an ultra-nationalist volunteer police group,
and was integrated into Ukraine’s national guard later that same year.
This was done to help fight against the Russian-backed separatists in the Donbass region, who were
trying to break away from Ukraine.
It would be rather difficult to deny the group’s links to neo-Nazi ideologies.
Even just looking at the Azov logo is enough to raise eyebrows.
Their logo features a Wolfsangel, symbolism that was used by the Nazi’s SS division
in World War 2.
During the last 8 years, the Battalion has been on the frontline in the war in the Donbass,
and the fighters have gained a reputation as fierce defenders of the nation.
In the 2022 invasion, the Battalion was the main unit defending the besieged city of Mariupol.
And in fact are the very reason that the city held on for as long as it did, under heavy
and constant bombardment from the Russian forces.
More than 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers, including many from Azov, were captured when Russia
finally took the last stronghold of the city, the Azovstal steel plant.
Estimates of how many members there are in the battalion range from about 900 to 2,000,
with the wider Azov movement having perhaps as many as 20,000 supporters.
In the 2019 parliamentary election, a far-right coalition won just 2% of the popular vote,
winning no seats.
Despite their minimal size, this will still be a tricky point for the two countries to
agree on.
Zelenskyy doesn’t want to admit that the country has a Nazi problem (albeit exagerated),
since it would help Putin legitimize the invasion.
In reality, though, this will be a low priority for Putin, since he knows the issue was blown
well out of proportion in order to justify the so-called “special military operation”.
Point #4 is about the suppression of the Russian language in Ukraine.
Once again, there actually is some legitimacy to this point.
The native language of Ukraine’s population is about 67% Ukrainian and 30% Russian.
In recent years, Ukraine’s government has made an active effort to promote the use of
the Ukrainian language within its borders, although this has often come at the cost of
the Russian language… deliberately or not.
In 2017, there were 3 different policies that restricted the use of the Russian language:
Commercial book imports were banned from Russia, despite making up about 60% of the country’s
imports A minimum Ukrainian language requirement for
TV broadcasts was introduced: 75% for national, and 50% for regional
And a law on education stipulated that Ukrainian was the language of education at all levels.
It does allow an exception for English or “one of the other official languages of
the EU”, of which there are 23, none of which are Russian.
In January 2022, a controversial law went into effect that required all print media
to be published in Ukrainian.
Foreign language print media is still allowed, but a Ukrainian version must also be published
in parallel, with the same number of copies printed as the original.
This means that a Russian language magazine, for example, would have to incur the extra
costs of translating everything, and printing double the number of copies… which would
be entirely unprofitable.
These recent policies do seem to contradict Ukraine’s own constitution, article 10 of
which states that “the free development, use and protection of Russian, and other languages
of national minorities of Ukraine, is guaranteed”.
Regardless of whether or not suppression of the Russian language in particular is one
of the goals of this legislation, historical context is important for understanding why
the current government of Ukraine would want to further promote the Ukrainian language
in particular.
A distinct Ukrainian language and culture has been suppressed since the days of the
Russian Empire.
As early as the mid-1800s, there was an effort to restrict the use of the Ukrainian Language,
in order to dissuade any ideas of a separatist movement.
After the Soviets took over following the Russian Revolution, Ukraine tried and failed
to achieve its independence, and was forcibly annexed by the USSR.
The Soviet era had its ups and downs, with the Ukrainian people facing particularly heavy
suppression and persecution under Joseph Stalin.
A 1930s famine in Ukraine, which was directly caused by Stalin’s policies, led to the
death of 4 million people.
Some scholars view the famine as a deliberate genocide against the Ukrainian people, although
there remains a significant debate on the subject.
Throughout the years, many Russian nationalists have sought to classify Ukrainian as a dialect
of Russian.
And today, Putin has often dismissed the very idea of a Ukrainian identity.
The issue of language, ethnicity, and national identity is an extremely complicated one,
with lots of overlapping; just because someone is a Russian speaker, does not mean they consider
themselves Russian, and certainly not that they support the invasion.
Putin has cited some of Ukraine’s recent language policies as evidence of “genocide”
of ethnic Russians.
Since the initial invasion of Crimea, however, many Russian speakers in Ukraine have actually
made an effort to use the Ukrainian language more in their daily life, in order to, quote:
“avoid using the language of the occupier”.
More broadly, though, there has been a noticeable shift in recent years towards more people
in the country embracing their Ukrainian identity and its distinct culture.
Any concessions made to Russia in this regard as part of a peace deal would be tricky, since
they might not even be supported by the very population that Russia is claiming to protect
– i.e Russian speakers in Ukraine.
Point #5 is about the war in the Donbass, and the two breakaway republics of Donetsk
and Luhansk.
The Donbas War started in 2014, immediately following the revolution and overthrow of
the government in Kyiv.
With the backing of Moscow, the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts staged an uprising against the new central government.
This escalated into armed conflict, and both oblasts declared their independence from Ukraine.
[reporter] “And so once again, defiant fists and Russian flags fly above this Ukrainian government building.
It is a measure of the turmoil this country is in.”
Since 2014, the separatists have held much of the territory of Ukraine’s easternmost
oblasts, including the regional capitals.
Over the last 8 years, there have been numerous ceasefires, but none have managed to stick
more than a few months.
Just days before Russia’s 2022 invasion, Putin officially recognised the two breakaway republics
The conflict in the Donbas region has escalated significantly since the beginning of the invasion.
In terms of trying to come up with some kind of agreement to put the broader conflict to
an end between Russia and Ukraine, both sides will need to compromise.
Russia will likely ask for Ukraine to recognise the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics
as independent, which of course Ukraine could never do.
Ukraine will want its territory back, but given how strong a hold the rebel republics
have, with backing from Moscow, this would be very difficult.
One possibility for a practical, long-term approach to achieving peace might be something
along the lines of an autonomous region status for the oblasts.
This way, they would remain part of Ukraine, but have a certain degree of self governance.
The specific details would need to be worked out by the relevant parties, which would be
a complex process, but if both Russia and Ukraine, and indeed the separatists themselves,
were willing to compromise, this could be a potential solution.
And finally, point #6 - Crimea.
The Crimean Peninsula was part of the Russian Empire from 1783.
Then, during the time of the USSR, Crimea was transferred from Soviet Russia to Soviet
Ukraine in 1954.
The transfer from one Soviet republic to another is sometimes described as a “symbolic gesture”.
The population at the time was 75% ethnic Russian, 25% Ukrainian…
although this was only the case because Joseph Stalin had expelled the native population
a decade earlier.
Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014, and they’ve had complete control over the entire
peninsula ever since.
A referendum showed more than 95% of voters in favour of joining the Russian Federation,
though it’s hard to know just how legitimate the process was.
Very few nations have officially recognised Crimea as part of Russia.
Unlike the Donbas region, there has been very little conflict in Crimea, even since the
beginning of the 2022 invasion.
However, this is still a major point of contention for the two countries.
Russia wants Ukraine to recognise the annexation, and agree that Crimea is part of Russia.
Zelenskyy, though, has remained firm on Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
This is one key point in which the status quo may actually be the most desirable for
both sides, and indeed the most realistic.
Ukraine knows that winning back Crimea, either by force or through diplomacy is extremely
unlikely any time in the foreseeable future.
Maintaining the ambiguous status of the peninsula allows president Zelenskyy to stick his strong
stance on the country’s territorial sovereignty, and not give Putin what he wants.
And from the Russian perspective, Crimea has already been a de facto part of Russia for 8 years now, and while international recognition of this would be a major victory for Putin, it doesn’t really affect the domestic situation all that much.
So these are the main talking points for ending this war.
Hopefully you now understand why this could take a very long time.
And these are just the main points of contention, there are of course other issues that haven’t
even been discussed here.
And on top of this, there are issues that have come up during the course of the invasion.
For example, the Russian delegation has stated that Ukraine must return all weapons that
it received from NATO countries, and that Western sanctions must be a part of the negotiations.
Which, again, reinforces the fact that any long-term agreement will require more than
simply Russia and Ukraine, but likely NATO as well.
From the Ukrainian perspective, the country will collectively be looking for some kind
of justice for what has happened to their country.
Will Putin ever face any consequences for his actions?
Could he be tried for war crimes?
And what about war reparations to help rebuild the country?
Just how much negotiating power each side has will largely depend on what is going on
on the frontline, and which side has the most desire to end the conflict.
This will determine just how much either side will be willing to compromise on the six key
issues, and much more as well.
In this video, I tried to give a brief overview of the main issues that will be crucial for
ending this war - but there is so much more historical background
that I wasn't able to go into.
For that reason, I would highly recommend you check out RealLifeLore’s Modern Conflicts
series over on Nebula.
This Original series features a full 26 minute episode of the history between Russia and
Ukraine that was made well before the 2022 invasion; and additionally, three more episodes
relating to Russia and their other 21st century conflicts.
The series is only available on Nebula, a streaming platform that was built by myself
and my other creator friends, featuring exclusive big budget content from Wendover Productions,
Real Engineering, and plenty of others you’re already familiar with.
And it’s completely ad-free.
The best part is - you can get access to Nebula through the CuriosityStream bundle deal, which
is available for just $15 for an entire year.
Sign up to receive immediate access to both these services.
On top of all the great stuff on Nebula, you’ll also get to watch all the professionally produced
documentaries on CuriosityStream, with tons of great content, including plenty of stuff
for the history buffs.
For example, Apocalypse Stalin, a 3-part docu series, which takes a deep look into the life
and rule of Joseph Stalin, giving a detailed and harrowing account of his brutal regime.
Featuring incredible colorized archive footage and diaries of people who actually lived through
these times, I truly cannot recommend this documentary highly enough.
So to get started watching now, go to CuriosityStream dot com forward slash WonderWhy, and sign
up for less than $15 for the whole year.
On top of getting access to all the content, you’ll also be helping support this channel,
and plenty of other independent creators like me.
As always, thank you so much for watching, and I’ll see you next time.