[Music]
Skywatch media news for February the
13th 2029 years ago in the year 1991 an
enormous eruption occurred at Mount
Pinatubo located in the Philippines it
was an event that was valued as a VE 1:6
eruption on the explosivity index many
of you may remember that event it
produced high speed avalanches of hot
ash and gas cataclysmic mud flows and a
cloud of volcanic ash which was hundreds
of miles across it became the second
largest eruption of the 20th century the
impacts of which were felt for many
years following the eruption
according to the latest data assessments
there is a 95% probability of a powerful
eruption of 5 or greater on the volcanic
explosivity index within the next 5
years if the assessment is correct then
the expectations are almost certain of
an imminent large volcanion type
eruption similar to Pinatubo or Krakatoa
here are some important figures to help
you understand the reasoning used to
back up these scientific predictions
back in the 19th century eruptions of 5
or greater occurred on average every 11
years with the eruption of Tambora in
1815 being the greatest then in the 20th
century this list is showing an eruption
of 5 or greater occurred at intervals
from 1 to 23 years the average being
just over 7 years the eruptions of 1912
and 1991 were classified as vei 6 in
strength so what this data is inferring
is that we are overdue for the next
super eruption because we have already
surpassed the average span between
eruptions over the past 200 plus years
the present span now sitting at nearly
29 years dating back to the ve i6
eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June of
the year 1991 if we consider what has
taken place so far in the 21st century
the 2010 eruption in Iceland reached 4
on the explosivity index followed by e
vei for eruption in Chile in the year
2011 this was followed by an eruption of
Mount Etna in 2012 that was rated as a
three on the index therefore the last ve
i-5 to occur was Pinatubo in the year
1991 so a value 5 eruption is very much
overdue
so what are the impacts and the
consequences of a vei 5 or greater
eruption similar to the one which
occurred at Pinatubo in the Philippines
the short-term consequences are
primarily a result of the population of
an affected area and the time required
for evacuation in today's world
populations are much higher but the
warnings come much quicker as does the
mechanisms for evacuation at the
beginning of this century the numbers of
people at risk from volcanoes was
estimated to be in excess of 500 million
and the numbers have only increased
since that time the long-term impacts
involves the location of the eruption a
massive eruption could trigger a year or
two without a summer it happened in our
past and it could certainly happen again
what could determine whether such an
event would repeat itself involves the
extent of the ash the altitude of the
plume and how long it persists the
magnitude of the eruption would be the
driving factor that could have the
potential to catapult the earth into
another mini ice age the key to survival
would entail the ways and the means to
reduce the disaster risk and increase
the resilience to volcanic catastrophes
the good news if we wish to call it that
is that some of the more destructive
eruptions in the past 2,000 years with a
few exceptions had a vei value lower
than 6 a value which is considered as
bordering on catastrophic musubi is
among those volcanoes that are grouped
into this category its eruption in 79 ad
is listed as 5 on the vei index having
destroyed both pompeii and herculaneum
among the largest explosive eruptions
since a year 1500 there have been 20
listed as vei five or more with only the
Tambora eruption of 1815 reaching a
value of seven on the index it's
interesting to note that there appears
to be little if any correlation between
the size and the magnitude of an
eruption when it is associated with the
resulting damage as an example the
volcanic eruption in Colombia in the
year 1985 was indexed as a vei 3 but
this eruption triggered mud flows that
caused one of the worst volcanic
disasters of the 20th century of the
most powerful eruptions since the year
1500 in terms of casualties there are
only three that are considered as
devastating with a vei greater than five
that being Tambora Krakatoa and lucky we
should also consider the long and the
short term consequences of super
eruptions with a value of seven or eight
on the index these type of eruptions
have impacted the Earth's climate for
long periods of time they do this by
forcing ash into the stratosphere at
very high altitudes similar in scope to
the 1994 satellite image of this
stratovolcano located on the Kamchatka
Peninsula the movement of the ash across
the Earth's stratosphere caused by this
type of eruption triggers temperature
changes which results in crop failure
and eventually famine and epidemics in
many parts of the world when Tambora
erupted in the year 1815 it produced 19
cubic miles of ejecta into the
atmosphere resulting in a year without a
summer after generating abnormally low
temperatures across China Europe and
North America at this moment in time we
are witnessing significant changes
taking
as the earth moves into a period of
instability what we can all know and
understand is that volcanic eruptions
are extremely dangerous and they are
highly unpredictable there can be no way
of preventing them from m15 serious
damage to our planet this is why the
scientific community has indicated that
within the next five years the
likelihood of a vei 5 or greater
eruption is close to if not more than a
95% certainty the short term effects can
be minimized with proper preparedness
but the long term global effects may be
something that we will have to endure
for many years volcanic activity has
been increasing exponentially since the
early 20th century and it has increased
dramatically in the last 30 years
volcanic eruptions are now becoming more
intense and more frequent and therefore
more unpredictable the chances of a
volcanion type occurrence similar to
Vesuvius or Mount st. Helens in any
given year
how paces the other natural disasters
known to man volcanoes are associated
with global catastrophes as well as mass
extinctions their ability to create
chaos is unlimited one of the most
active volcanoes in the world and one
that is closely monitored is Indonesia's
Mount Merapi which rises ninety five
hundred and fifty feet above sea level
in the early morning hours of February
the 13th though restless volcano erupted
spewing volcanic material for more than
a half a mile radius while ash rained
down on villages located more than 6
miles south of the volcano
[Music]
a Mount Merapi
is a very dangerous volcano interrupted
four times within a three-month span in
the fall of 2019 those eruptions were
followed by a deep volcanic earthquake
the country of Indonesia was struck with
more than eleven thousand five hundred
and fifty volcanic earthquakes in the
year 2018 resulting in the loss of many
lives while leaving many others homeless
eruptions similar to Merapi are
happening all across the planet and for
those who live in its path it is
imperative to keep a watchful eye and to
be vigilant for the unpredictability of
these mighty forces of nature will
continue as you look towards the heavens
know that the earth and everything
around it is connected the sky the moon
and all that exists above us are seen as
a mystery thanks for watching
[Music]
[Applause]
[Music]
[Applause]
[Music]
you