leaders from all 31 nato member
nations will hold their annual
summit next month in Vilnius,
Lithuania.
Ahead of it, some members, and
Ukrainian president volodymyr
zelenskyy, are stepping up their
calls for Ukraine to join the
military alliance.
Ali rogin has the details.
Ali: Poland's parliament today
passed a resolution supporting
Ukraine's admission to nato.
Ukraine-in-nato was a
contentious issue long before
the war began, and it has only
accelerated since then.
We have now our own debate over
when or whether Ukraine should
be invited into nato.
Charles kupchan served on the
national security council staff
during the Obama and Clinton
administrations.
He's now a senior fellow at the
council on foreign relations and
a Georgetown university
professor.
And Evelyn Farkas was deputy
assistant secretary of defense
for Russia, Ukraine and eurasia
during the Obama administration.
She's now executive director of
the McCain institute at Arizona
state university.
Welcome back to you both.
Evelyn, you support Ukraine
becoming a member of nato now.
Why?
Evelyn: Ukraine has earned it.
We gave them a political
agreement back when we took
their nuclear weapons that we
would defend them if they were
invaded.
The countries that were supposed
to defend Ukraine did defend
Ukraine to some extent but not
to the extent that Ukraine
expected.
Since then Ukraine has been
fighting to uphold the
international order, this entity
of borders, which Russia has
violated repeatedly, and now the
most battle hardened, capable
military on the continent.
Amna: -- Ali: Charles, has
Ukraine earned it?
Charles: I'm all for helping
Ukraine and doing our best to
help them recover as much of
their territory as possible.
But I part ways on the question
of whether nato should open its
doors and offer membership to
Ukraine at this point.
President Biden and nato allies
are helping Ukraine defend
itself that they are not going
to war to defend Ukraine in part
because they have made a
judgment that they are not ready
to see nato go to war with
Russia, risk World War III over
Ukraine.
We need to keep in mind that if
nato does admit Ukraine and a
single bomb were to fall on Kyiv
, we would have a treaty-based
obligation to go to war with
Russia.
Secondly, I think we see this is
a war that will go on a long
time.
We don't know how it will end.
We need to keep open the
prospect for some sort of cease
fire, perhaps an armistice in
which we can get Russia to play
ball.
Much harder to get them to play
ball.
Two final reasons.
There is no consensus in nato
about admitting Ukraine.
Nato's strongest suit right now
is its unity and I don't think
we want to interject this debate
right before the summit in July
and go into that summit with
disunity.
Finally, the domestic question.
Sweden is on the path to nato
membership.
Turkey is blocking it.
It's not clear to me that if we
go down the path of wanting to
admit Ukraine, that our own
senate would be ready to ratify
it.
Before we start moving toward
nato mentorship for Ukraine, you
need to get our political ducks
in order.
Ali: I want to pick up on
Charles's first point, that we
should not necessarily be ready
yet to commit American troops to
the site.
You have when it out that uncle
five of nato's principles that
state a collective self-defense
does not necessarily specify
what that response looks like.
So we are not automatically
promising troops to the front.
You are saying you believe that
is a commitment the united
States should be willing to make
at this point?
Evelyn: If Russia is allowed to
prevail and a cease fire will
essentially mean Putin can rest,
his military can regain strength
and attack Ukraine again, Putin
prevails militarily in Ukraine,
he will turn to Georgia,
Moldova, and then make no
mistake, he will challenge the
nato alliance.
He will do something to cause us
to have to make a decision about
whether we trickle -- trigger
article five or not.
It's far easier to deter him in
the Ukraine context, than having
the possibility of fighting
another day against nato.
How do we do this?
We have a precedent in the cold
war where east Berlin was part
of Germany, but we did not
extend to code-5 to that area
because it was occupied by
soviet forces.
There were ways to guarantee
article five.
If Russia was to attack part of
Ukrainian territory where they
are not today, meaning the
Ukrainian government has control
and therefore article five would
count, we can then make a
decision about what actions take
in it doesn't necessarily have
to of all all the way to nuclear
or all-out war.
Ali: How do you make
determinations about what parts
of Ukraine are Ukrainian and
what parts are under Russian
control in an active war zone
where individual cities change
hands every day?
Evelyn: I think there's any
question, you put it into the
disputed category.
I think it's fairly clear day
today which towns are
controlled, but on the day
Ukraine becomes a member, that's
the day it counts.
I realize it is tricky and there
is a little danger on those
towns on those days, when the
decision is being finalized.
Ali: The Biden administration
has indicated it's not
supporting Ukraine nato member
ship at this time, it wants to
wait until fighting has ceased,
today there are reports that
they are open to wave the
so-called member should action
plan, a series of commitments
that nato applicants have to
make before they are admitted.
What do you make of that signal
from the Biden administration
and is that enough?
Evelyn: I think the Biden
administration is responding to
pressure from the Europeans and
the majority of nato members,
they are very much in favor of
nato membership for Ukraine.
The bided administration is not
leading this time when it comes
to Ukraine's nato membership, as
in the past.
I think the administration is
trying to close the gap with us
and our allies.
Charles: I would agree, I think
the Americans are looking for
something to give the Ukrainians
at the summit.
Waiving the action plan is not a
bad idea, but it is a procedural
maneuver that kicks down the
road the question of will
Ukraine ever get in to nato.
I think right now the main line
of effort will stay the main
line of effort, and that is
getting arms to Ukraine so they
can continue this offensive and
take back as much land as
possible on the battlefield.
Ali: Charles and Evelyn, thank
you for joining us.
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