El Nino 2023 is going to be a beast is what all the reports have been reading have been telling
me but what does it actually mean what is El Nino and what do we have in store for us around the
world this summer I'll be honest with you I didn't really know nearly enough about this myself so
this one's going to be fun let's figure this all out together I'm Ricky and this is two-bit DaVinci
this video is sponsored by anchor solix since early this year climatologists have been warning
of the imminent onset of an El Nino event the warm phase of the El Nino Southern oscillation
or Enzo system the first unino watch was issued on April 13th when one of the conditions for El
Nino was initially met we'll get back to that in a minute but on June 8th of this year the arrival of
El Nino was officially confirmed by scientists at NOAA based on their predictions 2023 is going to
be a really hot year and it's very likely that 2024 will be the hottest year ever recorded So
what is the Enzo system the Enzo system is the world's most important climate cycle it's a
recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperatures of the Central and Eastern tropical
Pacific Ocean this phenomenon has three potential phases a cold hot and neutral phase during a
neutral Enzo phase sometimes called lanata or nothing in Spanish something I just learned
the ocean temperatures are average and we get typically mild weather patterns around the world
the hot phase is what we call El Nino which is Spanish for the child or the boy the name comes
from 17th century Peruvian fishermen who noticed warmer Waters and poor fishing during Christmas
and Associated it with the birth of baby Jesus when Waters get colder we get the opposite effect
so we call that phase La Nina which means the girl the Enzo cycle usually lasts between two and seven
years averaging about five with El Nino and La Nina phases lasting an average of 9 to 12 months
it's during these months that we see stronger weather events in some parts of the world but
the last La Nina phase lasted three years instead of nine to twelve months earning the nickname the
triple dip La Nina now the Enzo is bouncing back to an El Nino and it's gonna be bad to understand
why this result Nino is going to be such a beast let's look at how El Nino's work but before we
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solex fans so check that down using the links in the description huge thanks to Anchor solar Alex
and you for supporting the show now we've been talking a lot about the Pacific Ocean and not
about the other oceans that's because the Pacific literally controls Global Climate due to its sheer
size to put the sheer scale and significance of the Pacific Ocean into perspective it covers 47
percent of the water surface of the planet that's double the area and over twice the volume of the
water in the Atlantic which is the next largest the point is even though El Nino happens over the
Pacific it's a fact stretch across the globe for example El Nino also affects the jet stream which
is an atmospheric River of high-speed wind that circulates around the earth near the poles during
El Nino events the jet stream can weaken and shift to the South often leading to an increase in
storms along the southern coast of North America during the winter it also brings in hotter Summers
like we are witnessing now this shift in the jet stream also brings warmer temperatures and drier
conditions to Northern areas like the northern U.S and Canada it can also call cause extreme
weather conditions such as floods and droughts in other parts of the world floods are common in
places like Peru Ecuador Colombia Venezuela Chile and Bolivia in South America drought conditions
tend to be more widespread and can occur in parts of North America Central America the Caribbean
Islands Australia Africa and parts of Asia and finally El Nino can also cause higher than normal
hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean but we'll get back to that in a moment now not all of these
effects are sure to show up during a particular El Nino season global weather is much more
complicated than that and there are other forces at play but statistically speaking there is a
strong correlation between the strength of the El Nino phase and its effects on those global weather
patterns so just how strong will the 2023 super El Nino be I mean why are the scientists saying
that this year's El Nino is going to be stronger than ever scientists measure the intensity of an
El Nino event by measuring how much warmer or colder the ocean's surface temperatures
are than the normal average this is called called the oceanic Nino index or Oni that is true these
temperatures are tracked within a particular patch of the Pacific Ocean along the Equator called El
Nino 3.4 so for Noah to declare an El Nino event three things have to happen one the ocean must be
at least 0.5 degrees Celsius hotter than normal for a given month the normal temperature here
is compared to the 30-year long-term average from 1991 to 2020. if the water is more than
0.5 degrees Celsius colder then it's classified as La Nina and if it's between 0.5 above or below the
Enzo is considered in its neutral phase second there should be evidence that the event will
persist scientists use complex computer models to forecast sea surface temperatures for the
coming months and that's how they predict if the conditions will last the final condition requires
the emergence of changes in weather patterns that are typically associated with an El Nino event
from late January to late May the Enzo system came out of the triple diplanemia and entered a neutral
phase temperatures kept Rising Noah then issued an El Nino warning in mid-april when the water
reached a temperature over 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal the first condition was met but not
the others however on June 8th over 90 percent of all weather forecast models agreed that the warmer
temperatures would persist that's condition number two also they were more than mild indications of
changing weather patterns particularly in Canada if you've been watching the news lately a warmer
drier and earlier than normal summer caused by the descending jet stream has contributed to
more than 2 700 wildfires along Alberta Nova Scotia Ontario and Quebec now this will only
affect Canada as the smoke clouds are spreading it's reached Ireland and the UK as of June 26th
but here in these states things are also looking pretty bleak we're currently witnessing record
high summer temperatures even though the hottest months of the year are typically weeks away as of
the making of this video there's a massive heat wave in the central U.S that has over 45 million
Americans under official heat alert because of an expanding heat Dome Over Texas just take a look at
this temperature map from June 20th multiple parts of Texas are recording scorching temperatures
above 110 degrees Fahrenheit this is seriously dangerous stuff this heat wave has already taken
the lives of two hikers who went on a hike in the Big Bend National Park when temperatures hit 119
degrees this is only the beginning right now the latest measurement of the Oni for the El Nino 3.4
region is 0.9 degrees Celsius above average but almost all models predict this temperature will
keep rising in the coming months peaking around October November during the northern winter some
of the most advanced models predict the ocean temperatures will reach a staggering 2.73 degrees
Celsius above average others predict 2.5 several more predict at least two and most other forecast
temperatures well over 1.5 degrees Celsius this puts the 2023 El Nino event as a potential super
El Nino which happens when Central Pacific Waters reach at least 2 degrees above average to put this
into perspective here's a graph of The observed monthly Oni values since 1950. all values are
0.5 and above represent El Nino events this graph shows two things we've had a total of only four
super El Nino events since 1972 with a tie for the strongest ever recorded El Nino between 9798 and
2015-2016 Seasons with 2016 ranking as the hottest year in recorded history the intensity of super El
Nino event has been growing stronger over time and this time it seems like it'll get even worse
as I mentioned before we're coming into a bounce back effect from a triple dip La Nina this matters
because the ocean is the world's largest carbon sink absorbing 25 of all the carbon emissions and
90 of the excess heat caused by those emissions cold water can actually absorb more carbon and
heat from the air than warm water can this is why La Nina usually comes with lower average
global temperatures because the water is colder however even though we just had a three-year
long La Nina 2022 was the fifth hottest year ever recorded and now that the tides have turned and
the ocean is getting warmer it's also getting ready to release gigatons worth of greenhouse
gases and excess stored heat into the atmosphere another clear sign of a stronger than usual El
Nino event is that the U.S drop monitor reported a faster than normal decrease in drought conditions
across the country this dropped from 63 percent at the start of November 2022 to 19 by the end of May
2023. that's definitely good news for places in drought but that's the fastest decline in drought
conditions since we began tracking them in 2000 and it points to a strong El Nino effect on the
jet stream I mentioned before so the 2023 super El Nino is going to be massive how massive the only
way to put it into context is to compare it to the closest competitor the 2015-2016 El Nino let's
recap what happened during that year first during this season the southern states especially along
the Gulf Coast received much higher precipitation than normal during the winter months for example
Texas had its wettest winter on record with an average of 16.8 inches of rain which was 7.4 above
normal Florida also had its second wettest winter on record with 4.7 inches more rain than normal
that is set to happen again in the 2023-2024 winter season only worse but that's the milder
side 2016 has the second highest annual number of billion dollar weather-related disasters in
U.S history there were a total of 203 disasters 15 of which were extreme events including Hurricane
Matthew in October the northern Central Texas hail storm of April and the ongoing Mega drought
here in California to name a few in total these natural disasters killed 138 people and caused
46 billion dollars in direct damages and that was with a peak sea surface temperature of 2.3
degrees above average imagine with 2.7 would do with the exception of Hurricane Katrina in 2005
which has been the costliest natural disaster in U.S history most billion dollar disasters are
linked to El Nino events and the overall cost in human lives and damages has been increasing
steadily Yale climate connections contributor Michael Lowry explained in simple terms why this
year's El Nino could also trigger one of the worst hurricane seasons in the Atlantic he stated the
Tropical Atlantic has been running an astounding full degree Celsius or warmer above its long-term
average blistering warmth that in any other year would signal an active hurricane season ahead and
that means that it's not just the Pacific that's getting worked up we really have to embrace
ourselves we're heading toward a pretty ugly situation and we desperately need to prepare if
you're in any of the regions where you're likely to see the impacts of the super El Nino event it's
probably a good idea to at least consider getting flood insurance or fire insurance or something
similar it's also important to take official warnings seriously and make sure we have a backup
plan to cool off if you have to spend time outside during a particularly hot day but as an engineer
I also like to take a more proactive approach to preparation one that doesn't only depend on public
utilities or the government setting up backup systems for power for example is why talk so much
about batteries and solar better Communications water and food or totally going off-grid are all
things you can do in some small way so for example one of the big concerns whenever the heat starts
to rise is people running their air conditioning especially in the U.S where people are not keen
to turn the thermostat up and overload the grid and causing brownouts to happen so for me I now
have a 11 kilowatt solar system which produces all the power I need next up for me is home
batteries if I got those two things together even the power goes out I could still run my house and
my business and that's why I love that technology so much it's the emergency preparedness of it all
that said predictions and forecasts are only that predictions based on models and those models could
be wrong we could end up with a mild El Nino that doesn't really do all that much harm there is a
more than 50 chance that this year's El Nino will be a beast but there's also a chance that it won't
I don't make these videos to come out as alarmist or to scare people I'm bringing you all the data
how this works I honestly didn't know and now I fully understand what El ninos are that there's
a la NADA didn't know that and how this year is shaping up so definitely keep a prize of the
news where you live and be prepared there's going to be increases in air conditioning usage power
outages those are things that are probably going to happen especially as the temperatures start
to rise in regions that have air conditioning you know I love you take care of you and yours be safe
out there and uh until next time I'm recruit tube DaVinci and check out this video next