In recent weeks, there's been growing alarm
about a significant Russian troop build-up on the border with Ukraine.
While Russia has now announced that it's returning the troops to their bases,
the mobilisation nevertheless highlighted the ongoing conflict
between the Ukrainian government and Russian-backed separatists.
So, what is the conflict in Eastern Ukraine all about?
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Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel my name is James Ker-Lindsay and here I take an
informed look at international relations, conflict and the origins of countries.
In the modern era, there are a few major civil wars that are wholly domestic in nature.
Around the world we see conflicts fought within countries that have
a significant degree of external involvement.
However, sometimes
what appears to be a civil war is in fact little more than an interstate conflict in disguise.
Local parties are in reality proxies for an outside actor.
Perhaps the best example of this in recent times has been the conflict in Eastern Ukraine.
While it might seem like a dispute between a Russian minority and the Ukrainian state,
in reality it's a dispute that's seen direct Russian involvement from the start.
Ukraine lies in Eastern Europe.
At 600,000 square kilometres, or 230,000 square miles,
its the 45th largest of the 193 members of the United Nations
and the second largest country in Europe, after the Russian Federation its neighbour to the east.
The country is divided into 27 territorial units: 24 oblasts, or regions;
an autonomous republic, Crimea; and two cities with a special status,
the capital, Kiev, and Sevastopol, on the Crimean Peninsula.
The country's population is estimated to be around 44 million.
According to the 2001 census, the most recent available,
78 percent were ethnic Ukrainians, followed by Russians, comprising 17 percent of the population.
The remaining five percent were made up of other groups, including Moldavians,
Belarusians and Crimean Tatars.
While Russian speakers tend to be more prevalent in the south and the east of the country,
they only representative majority in three key areas: Crimea, in the south,
and the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, in the east - an area known as the Donbas.
And it's here that the conflict is centred.
Ukraine has a long and complex history, not least of all in terms of its relationship with Russia.
Having emerged as a distinct entity in the mid 9th century, over the course of the late
middle ages and early modern period it was at different times carved up between various powers,
including the Ottoman Empire, the Habsburg Empire and, crucially, Imperial Russia.
This lasted until the Russian Revolution, when it gained its nominal independence from Russia
and became one of the four founding republics of the Soviet Union - alongside Russia,
Belarus and the Transcaucasian Federation.
In the decades that followed, its boundaries with Russia changed.
While ceding some territory to Russia and the north,
it gained territory in the east, including parts of today's Luhansk and Donetsk.
Having gained territory from Poland and Romania during and after the Second World War,
the country assumed its current boundaries in 1954, when the Soviet leadership ceded
the Crimean Peninsula to Ukraine from Russia - a decision long resented by many Russians.
However, the story really begins in late august 1991.
Just days after a failed coup in the Soviet Union,
the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic declared independence.
This was confirmed three months later in a nationwide referendum.
On a turnout of 84 per cent, 92 percent supported the decision to leave the USSR.
Even areas with strong Russian-speaking presence, the majority supported independence.
The following day, Ukraine began to be formally recognised as an
independent state by the international community.
Crucially, it was also recognised as such by the Russian Soviet Federative
Socialist Republic, the largest partner in the Soviet Union,
which itself became a fully independent state just three weeks later when the Soviet Union dissolved.
From the start, relations between Ukraine and
the Russian Federation were strained over several issues.
These included the presence of Soviet nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the future of the Russian
navy in the Black Sea, which was stationed in Crimea, and the status of Crimea itself.
In the end, the issues were solved through negotiations.
The nuclear weapons were transferred to Russia
and, under the terms of the Budapest Memorandum - agreed in 1994 between Ukraine,
Russia, the United States and Britain - the parties agreed to respect the sovereignty
and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its current borders and refrain from the threat or
use of force against it, except in self-defence; thus seemingly ending Russia's claim to Crimea.
Meanwhile, in 1997, the two countries agreed to divide the navy and let Russia
retain control over the port in Crimea until 2017, later extended to 2042.
But there were also wider geopolitical factors at play.
Although Ukraine joined the Commonwealth of Independent States,
a loose organisation made up of most of the former Soviet republics, and effectively led by Russia,
divisions started to emerge about the country's future strategic direction.
While Russia sought to keep it firmly within its sphere of influence, many in Ukraine wanted
to move closer to the west and called for membership of NATO and the European Union.
In the years that followed, Ukraine became increasingly polarised.
These differences came to a head in November 2013, when the country's pro-Russian president,
Victor Yanukovych, suspended the signing of an association agreement with the European Union.
This led to a wave of protests across the country and, in February 2014, Yanukovych fled to Russia.
This then led to counter demonstrations in the Russian speaking east and south of Ukraine.
It was under the cover of these protests that Russian forces began
infiltrating the Crimean Peninsula; a move that eventually led to Russia's
annexation of the territory a few weeks later, on the 18 March.
Soon afterwards, an uprising began in the east when pro-Russian separatists stormed government
buildings in Donetsk and Luhansk and from there started to seize territory across the two regions.
On 12 May 2014, they declared independence as the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.
In the months that followed, rebel forces - already widely
believed to be actively supported by Russia - extended their control.
However, by August, Ukrainian forces seemed to be gaining the upper hand.
It was at this stage that Russia became more active.
As well as taking a more direct control of the separatist forces,
it also sent in military reinforcements under the guise of providing humanitarian aid.
As a result, Ukrainian forces were pushed back,
leaving roughly a third of Luhansk and Donetsk under effective Russian control.
In early September 2014, and under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation
in Europe, the OSCE, the Ukrainian president met with the leaders of Donetsk and Luhansk,
as well as the representative of Russia, in Minsk in Belarus.
There they signed a 12-point agreement.
In return for a ceasefire and the departure of external forces,
steps would be taken to decentralise power in Donetsk and Luhansk.
While it was hoped that this would end the conflict, by January 2015
serious fighting had resumed.
In February 2015, the sides met again.
This time, the meeting was attended by the Ukrainian and Russian presidents,
Petro Poroshenko and Vladimir Putin, the leaders of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well
as by the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French President, Francois Hollande.
There they agreed a new document - Minsk II - which set out the
terms of the original agreement in more detail.
Although this seemed to bring an end to the most serious phase of the conflict,
it didn't bring peace.
In 2016, the German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier,
proposed a simplified formula offering elections leading to immediate
self-government for the territories in return for Ukrainian control of its eastern border.
While welcomed by Russia, which saw it as legitimising the regimes in Luhansk and Donetsk,
it was widely opposed in Ukraine.
A meeting that was meant to have been held in September that year
never went ahead and the proposals were not formally agreed by the sides.
In the years that followed, the conflict continued; occasionally flaring up.
In the meantime, Russia sought to extend its influence over the areas under separatist control.
This included providing citizenship to over a million people living in Eastern Ukraine,
a step that Moscow argues entitles them to Russian protection.
Meanwhile, in May 2019, Ukraine voted for a new president, Volodymyr Zelensky. Committed
to reaching a deal that would see Donetsk and Luhansk reintegrated into Ukraine on
the basis of the Steinmeier formula, he signed the agreement just months later.
But while this led to further peace talks, there's still not been a settlement.
Indeed, the region is still prone to flare-ups of fighting.
As the conflict enters its eighth year,
it's believed that 14,000 people in total have died, and 30,000 have been wounded.
In addition, over 1.5 million people have been displaced.
But while there may be a tendency to view the conflict as a civil war,
pitting ethnic Russians in the east of the country against the majority Ukrainian population,
in truth the conflict bears all the hallmarks of a classic proxy war.
Including Crimea, it's estimated that roughly
seven percent of Ukraine is now under direct or effective Russian occupation.
From the start, it's clear that Russia has been driving this process,
not only to retain as much influence over Ukraine as possible but also to
ensure that Ukraine does not move closer to either the European Union or NATO.
I hope you found that interesting. If so, here are some more videos that you might find useful.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.