The question many of you are asking these days is:
To what extent will China support Russia in the war in Ukraine?
You could say it is one of the missing pieces in this whole puzzle.
China is the super power that rivals the United States.
And theoretically, if China were to decisively support Moscow, the balance of power would
change radically.
Now, this is the theory, but is the same true in reality?
To what extent would China be willing to get involved?
Well, to answer these questions, the first thing to do is to answer another question:
what exactly does the Chinese government think about the invasion of Ukraine?
Well, here’s where it gets a bit murky.
Because, VisualPolitik fans, on the one hand, prior to the invasion, China had been saying
things like this for some time.
Messages that they had been repeating over and over again.
(Xi backs Putin's opposition to Nato expansion at summit that underlines closer ties.
FT)
And, what’s more, during the first hours of the invasion they also said things like
this:
(We have stated China's principled position on the Ukraine issue.
There is a complex historical background and context on this issue.
(..) Russia's defense ministry said that its armed forces will not conduct missile, air
or artillery strikes on cities.
– Hua Chunying, Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs of China
You get the idea: that it is all very complicated, that they are not going to attack civilians
(Yeah, right!), that it is a limited operation, that grandma smokes...
Blah, blah, blah.
And so the days continued to pass, until:
(Ukraine invasion: China abstains from voting on UN Security Council resolution condemning
Russia.
SKY)
And you know that there are some silences that are thunderous.
China's abstention must have come as a surprise to the Kremlin,
[Or maybe not?]
Whatever the case, the Chinese left the Russians outvoted, with the Kremlin relying only on
the support of Belarus, Syria, North Korea and Eritrea.
[What a club]
It was a stab in the back for the supposed love story that Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin
have been playing out in recent years.
Few leaders accumulate so many meetups.
To give you an idea, the presidents of Russia and China have been face-to-face and rubbed
palms about 40 times.
It is even rumored that in order not to spoil the party for the Chinese, Putin waited until
the Beijing Olympics were over to begin his invasion.
But why is China not supporting Russia in this war?
Will Beijing take advantage of this situation?
Today we are going to answer these questions but first let's look at a bit of history.
(DESTINED TO GET ALONG)
The Soviet Union led the communist bloc during the Cold War.
And in its early years it had the support of the most populous country in the world:
Mao's China.
Together they were called to stand up to the capitalist system of the West.
However, relations between Moscow and Beijing went awry after Stalin's death.
Gradually, the disputes between the Chinese and the Soviets became more and more heated
until, in 1969, there were armed clashes between the troops of the two countries along the
border.
Their shared border of more than 3,700 miles or 6,000 kilometers was heavily militarized
for decades.
The USSR maintained 44 divisions deployed until the late 1980s, that was 13 divisions
more than on the western front against NATO.
However, after the collapse of the USSR, Russia and China improved their relations considerably.
They initiated a series of meetings together with other Central Asian countries.
They were known as the Shanghai Five and their aim was to clearly define the post-Soviet
borders, which was essential for reducing the number of deployed troops.
Over time, these meetings were transformed into an international organization: the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization, about which VisualPolitik has already made an entire video.
Today, the SCO has broadened its objectives and is part of China and Russia's strategy
to build international organizations beyond the institutions designed by the United States
at the end of World War II.
In fact, China and Russia have been trying to come up with their own alternative to the
SWIFT banking system.
Now that most Russian banks cannot use SWIFT, it is very likely that they will switch to
CIPS which is a system created by China.
But make no mistake.
CIPS is still light years away from the classic SWIFT: they don't even compete in the same
league.
SWIFT is the system used by more than 11,000 financial institutions in over 200 different
countries.
While just 1,200 institutions in only 100 countries use the Chinese system.
In addition, there are many doubts that this system can be used in Russia without problems.
Listen up.
(The RMB cross-border payment system still relies on banks as nodes, which can be sanctioned
and influenced (...) The United States can sanction these banks.
- Chen Xin, professor at Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance.
Guancha)
The year 2014 was a turning point.
When the Kremlin annexed Crimea, the West punished Russia with sanctions.
Since then Putin has had no choice but to look more and more to the East.
[By the way, quick side note: even today China still does not recognize the Russian annexation
of Crimea.
Surprise]]
But back to the economic arena, think about it: China appears to be a perfect trading
partner for Russia.
China has technology but lacks natural resources.
Russia, on the other hand, has plenty of resources but no technology.
That's a clear-cut solution.
Since 2014, business between Moscow and Beijing has only kept growing.
The figures for 2021 speak for themselves.
(China-Russia trade hits a record high of over $140 billion.
Global Times)
And so, China has become the largest market for Russian exports after the European Union.
Half of what China buys from Russia is crude oil.
But they also buy coal, natural gas and arms.
For their part, the Russians have shown great interest in Chinese technology.
They don’t have much choice.
For example, Huawei is set to play a leading role in the development of 5G in Russia.
[Well, when it arrives, I mean.
Because in Russia when they say 5G, you may end up getting about two and a half mega yachts
in Cyprus.
You know what I’m talking about]
Well, this was the point where relations between these two countries stood when Putin unleashed
his storm of fire and destruction on Ukraine.
And the question is: How has Beijing reacted to the Russian attack?
We'll tell you right now.
(PUTIN'S WAR)
At the last Winter Olympics, China won the gold medal in the gymnastics competitions.
However, I assure you that the flexibility of the Asian giant's diplomats is on par with
that of its gymnasts.
Those of you who follow VisualPolitik regularly have surely heard of the Munich Security Conference.
It is held every year in February.
And, out of interest, VisualPolitik participated in the 2020 one.
But that's another story.
The fact is that the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, participated in the latest 2022 Conference
via videoconference.
And this is how firm he was when he was asked about the tensions on the Ukrainian border.
Remember, at this point there were five days left before
the invasion.
Good, isn't it?
You can say it louder, but not clearer.
The thing is that it is very easy to be so blunt when the status quo is maintained and
everything is more or less calm.
But of course, when Putin suddenly appears on TV and says that Russian troops are about
to cross the border, then things change completely.
And as we say here on VisualPolitik, no sooner said than done.
As soon as the invasion began, the Chinese government became very uncomfortable.
As if it suddenly had to look for excuses and justifications for what Putin was doing.
What’s more, on 24 February, with the invasion already underway, Chinese Foreign Ministry
spokesperson, Hua Chunying, even tried to convince us that the war in Ukraine was not
even
a war.
The rest is history.
Russia has used artillery and we have all seen the pictures of Kharkov and Mariupol
devastated by the Russians.
So China started to move.
To move like this...
See?
This way, hoping to fade into the background...
so that you can't see them well...
The problem?
The problem is that China belongs to the UN Security Council.
And when the UN Security Council met to rule on the invasion of Ukraine, China had no choice
but to vote.
So what do you think China voted for?
Well, it did the same as it did with the annexation of Crimea.
Abstain and avoid criticizing Putin's actions.
As it stands, not even the official Chinese media have talked about invasion.
In fact, China's representative to the UN, Zhang Jun, accused NATO of causing all the
problems, you know the usual excuse that the blame for aggression lies with everyone but
the aggressor.
But...
Of course, what else would China say?
Be that as it may, the truth is that this is not a clear endorsement for Moscow either.
In fact, since then, China has avoided any further missteps.
It maintains that it does not like what is happening in Ukraine, that it defends its
territorial integrity and that it is committed to resolving this situation through dialogue.
Even so, it maintains that Russia has its reasons for acting.
How can you be on both the side of the aggressor and the attacked?
Well, what can I say, I have no idea!
I guess it will be a matter of juggling.
What is clear is that China has nothing to gain from this war.
We could even go so far as to say that it cares very little about the outcome.
This war is Putin's war and the Chinese are neither in nor out of it.
They are not going to burn their bridges for either Russia or Ukraine.
They already have enough problems in China with the real estate crisis, the economic
slowdown and their own foreign relations without getting into a senseless mess!
What’s more, we all know what China's main objective is.
And more so having seen what happened last January, something that has been repeated
in recent months.
(China sends largest incursion of warplanes into Taiwan defense zone since October.
The Guardian)
In fact, many analysts wondered whether Xi Jinping was not thinking of imitating Putin
and taking advantage of the occasion to invade Taiwan.
Of course, for Chinese communism the two situations are very different.
Ukraine is a sovereign and internationally recognized country.
In contrast, Taiwan is not recognized as a sovereign country by almost any country: not
even the United States.
In fact, questioning Ukraine's sovereignty is something that plays directly against China
itself, as it would validate other nations questioning China's sovereignty in Taiwan,
a concept that Beijing is so keen on defending.
Precisely for this reason, Beijing seems to be clear that this is not China's moment.
However, the war in Ukraine is serving as a learning experience for Beijing.
For example, they are looking at what weapons the West is willing to use to stop a nuclear-armed
power.
In addition, everything indicates that, in the event of an invasion of Taiwan, US opposition
would be even greater.
Taiwan is the US’s ninth largest trading partner and a semiconductor superpower.
Moreover, hypothetical sanctions to curb trade with the West would be lethal for the Chinese
economy, which is still dependent on imports in a few strategic sectors.
In fact, this leads us to an important consideration: the battery of sanctions with which the Allies
keep economically bombarding Moscow could have an outcome that goes beyond military
interests both for the world and particularly for the Chinese themselves:
If the new wars of the future are no longer to be fought only on the battlefield, maybe
it's not such a priority to invest more and more and more in trying to have the strongest
army.
[Unless you share a border with Putin, that is.]
But, let's not get sidetracked, all this doesn’t mean that the Chinese are not thinking about
how to take advantage of Putin shooting himself in the foot.
Not at all, check it out.
( THE BOOTY OF XI JINPING)
One of the most significant sanctions imposed against Russia is the one imposed on its Central
Bank, whose foreign exchange reserves have been frozen.
In this matter, by the way, China may have taken note.
It is a lesson to avoid being punished in the future.
After all, China is the country with the world's largest reserves.
We are talking about the equivalent of approximately US$ 3.22 trillion dollars.
And in this case the US currency is the predominant one.
Xi Jinping's government has been very critical of the sanctions and has no reason to apply
them.
But, at the very least, it will certainly act very cautiously before taking any decision
that threatens its access to the international financial system.
Having already experienced a taste of this, when the United States sanctioned some Hong
Kong leaders, what won’t they do with the Russians?
And as far as trade is concerned, it’s much the same story.
For as much as trade with Russia is breaking records, for the time being it represents
barely a tenth of China’s combined trade with the United States and the European Union.
So what might China want from Russia in exchange for its support?
If you think about it, it has to be things where Beijing really stands to gain a lot
because nowadays making deals with Russia is frowned upon.
For example, one area of great concern to China is food security.
Before the war, world food prices were already at decade highs.
Now experts point out that the invasion of Ukraine threatens the world's wheat supply.
(China lifts restrictions on Russian wheat imports.
CNN)
And of course there is the issue of gas.
China’s natural gas consumption has multiplied by three in the last decade.
And since domestic production does not cover 60% of its current demand, the rest has to
be imported.
Most of it comes through liquefied natural gas.
The problem with LNG is that it is significantly more expensive than pipeline gas.
And I'm sure many of you here are thinking.
Hey, [Name of Hosto] but isn't Russia the biggest supplier of gas to Europe?
Well, yes, but at present Russia only offers China around 15% of the gas it imports.
Of course, that will change somewhat over the next few years.
In 2019 the Power of Siberia gas pipeline went into operation, which will be at full
capacity in 2025.
What’s more, at the last meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping, an additional agreement
was reached to supply gas via a new route.
And the invasion of Ukraine has not interrupted these plans for the time being.
(Gazprom Paves Way to New China Gas Deal as Sanctions Hit Russia.
Bloomberg)
We are talking about the new SOYUZ VOSTOK mega pipeline.
If these three projects are completed, Russia's export capacity to China will multiply.
This would make Chinese gas imports cheaper and increase its security of supply.
On top of this, given Russia's new isolation, China will surely be able to wrest the most
favorable conditions from the Kremlin.
In fact, the sanctions imposed on Russia even lead us to consider the possibility that the
relationship between Beijing and Moscow will become even more unbalanced and the Kremlin
will become very dependent on its dealings with China.
Then it will be time for Xi Jinping's regime to put into practice one of its specialties:
sugar daddy diplomacy.
What is sugar daddy diplomacy?
We explained it to you in previous VisualPolitik videos.
It will use this tactic when Russia's position has weakened so much that it reaches a point
where the Chinese sugar daddy starts demanding things that Russia will not be able to refuse.
Now, is China really willing to bail out the Russian economy?
Well, stay tuned because in an upcoming video, here on VisualPolitik, we will answer this
question in detail.
So don't forget to subscribe and hit the little bell.
But for now, it’s your turn: What role do you think Xi Jinping should play in the Ukrainian
war?
Do you think China will ever change its position of simultaneously supporting both the demands
of Russia and Ukraine?
You can leave me your answer in the comments.
And now if you found this video interesting don't forget to like it.
Thank you very much for watching.
All the best and see you next time.