so the first North Korea USD nuclearization talks in more than seven
months broke down in Stockholm this past weekend
immediately after the eight and a half hour long meeting North Korea said the
talks broke down entirely because the US had not discarded as old and came to the
table empty-handed the US on the other hand said the two sides had good
discussions that intense it intends to build on in two weeks which Pyongyang
denied a few hours later so are we in for another hiatus or is this a game
tactic live in the studio with me is john delorean at the Graduate School of
International Studies at NC University John it's great to have you in the
studio good to be with you now my first question to you is was this more or less
than what you had expected going into this Sock'em meeting I mean is this
really a failure it's just one Saturday meeting so really what can you expect
from one working-level meeting yeah well that's right you know you have to be
realistic about the expectations of what they're gonna do and this is a process
as the State Department noted we can't solve 70 years in one Saturday that said
I think the fact that the North Koreans almost immediately after the end of the
day it's good they got through the day it's good they had eight and a half
hours of discussion but the fact that the North Koreans went public with a
very negative characterization of the meeting and basically said that's it
that's not good and and the fact that we now have dueling public statements these
are not good so I would say in terms of my own expectations I really didn't know
was this gonna go well or not and so I would characterize it as closer to
didn't go well but not disaster not utter failure but doesn't look like it
went great so based on the conflicting remarks about their eight and a half
hour long meeting by the North Korean US negotiators what do you think happened
behind closed doors I mean there had been various speculations as to what
Steven vegan had going in so what kind of cars he had he had to play in there
basically what do you think happened behind closed doors well I have two
thoughts and of course this is totally speculate
you know I have no inside info here but we did see leaks that looked like pretty
good leaks right about what the proposal might be there may have been more than
was in those leaks for example you know not included in those reports in the
lead up was the question of summits we know that Kim jong-un has invited Donald
Trump to Pyongyang Donald Trump has talked about Kim jong-un visiting the
White House so that's a wild card that may have been that may be playing we're
not paying as much attention to it we're very focused on sanctions relief and on
some kind of security guarantee but I think there's a third kind of Maverick
piece and that may be playing into these working-level negotiations as far as
these summits and what would be required to hold the summit and that gets to the
second point which is timing you know when I look at these statements
especially the North Korean statement is very focused on the timing and actually
if you if you parse their phrases they were frustrated that they didn't hear
enough from the Americans and the Americans stressed the importance of
having lots of meetings whereas the North Koreans said you know their
statement was we want results from this meeting and we're not going to come back
to meet unless we're sure there's results so there's a kind of urgency on
the North Korean side whereas the Americans seem much more
process-oriented and the North Koreans were very negative in their
characterization of that now so the breakdown raises the possibility of
North Korea that it will intensify its provocations which the talks itself came
days after it's a launch of a sea-based ballistic missile launch right and and
but also the North decision could amount to a negotiation tactic meant to raise
its pressure on Washington also do you think of North Korea and us will meet
again in two weeks like how the US has said that they'll
meet again in Stockholm which North Korea flatly rejected yeah two weeks in
Stockholm does seem unlikely since the North Koreans said they're not
interested in that that would be great but the way the North Koreans have set
this up in terms of timing is Kim jong-un at least back in April's when I
remember he said maybe even earlier than that maybe
the beginning of the year he said the Americans have to kind of deliver by the
end of this year so that's the timeline that the North Koreans are working off
of we don't know why Kim jong-un set that timeline but for a negotiator like
kim jung-il doesn't matter that is the timeline now what is Donald Trump's
timeline presumably and the North Korean statement talks a lot about US domestic
politics presumably Donald Trump's timeline is November 2020 you know
that's where he's so their timelines are off and it creates a strange situation
where there's North Korean urgency to actually get something done before the
end of this year so that Kim jong-un can give his big New Year speech next year
and say oh well things didn't go great but in the end we got something you know
if nothing good happens by the end of the year we're gonna have a very
negative message from Kim jong-un and he's promised this new way right right
and we'll see what the new way is so now of course that's a threat to the
Americans right to actually negotiate so they have the North Koreans have created
a situation where there's this somewhat artificial pressure to do something by
the end of this year that's pressure on both sides however you know pressure on
themselves as well that's right really a no exit kind of right that's right
so if I would expect another contact before the end of the year but the
question now is how long you know will the North Koreans kind of drag it out
right up to the deadline and also what kind of message is now the North Koreans
have said balls in your court Steve began' in america.you that wasn't
enough you got to come back to us so now there is kind of pressure on the
American side to get them back to the table and of course that's not a great
situation from the negotiating perspective now I'm you know how very
with this impeachment drama unfolding in the US with mr. Trump do you think this
will be a factor in either speeding up at the denuclearization talks with North
Korea well the domestic politics the United
States very important to this and the North Koreans flagged it you know in
their statements and that's significant because they don't always do that so
they basically said the American team is kind of distracted and abusing this this
dialogue for their domestic political interests so that's that's not good and
Donald Trump looks pretty distracted you know one of the views of what went wrong
in Hanoi was that while it's unfolding Donald Trump is on TV watching you know
watching whatever the testimony was Cohen and the Moller reporting all that
and we're kind of back into that scenario where the impeachment inquiry
has begun the domestic political pressures on Donald Trump are huge and
the general view is who is driving engagement with North Korea it's Donald
Trump himself you know a lot of the a lot of his principal advisors have been
opposed to this John Bolton just left but of course we know he was always
opposed to this and he said publicly he was opposed to it so Donald Trump is the
one who kind of believes in this high-level engagement and that means
when he's distracted and he looks very distracted right now when he's
distracted that's not good for progress with North Korea now for the North
Koreans this is a double-edged sword you know because on the one hand if
Donald Trump is weak maybe they think that they can get more out of him on the
other hand if they make a deal with a weak president it might not last very
long and the North Koreans don't like when they make a deal that then blows up
in their face and is reversed so again just like with the timing the pressure
is pushing in both directions now last but not least we don't want to leave
South Korea out of this of course we are a direct player in this as well as we
are on the peninsula what do you think South Korea's role is and moving forward
with this denuclearization process of course president moon jaein was recently
in New York putting the North Korean denuclearization talks back in the
global media spotlight what do you think South Korea's role should be moving
forward well we've talked about this heavenly because we've seen
extraordinary events unfold over the last year year and a half and moon
jae-in has played that catalytic role you know we can see certain examples I
mean he's the one his message shuttle diplomacy got the first summit going he
had a meeting with Kim jong-un to revive the fate of that if you're moon jae-in I
think you do consider trying to have another meeting with Kim
jong-un which has been elusive you know there's that possibility of Kim jong-un
visiting Pusan if I were moon J and I'd be pushing very
hard to try and make that possible so that president moon could intervene at
the leader level to talk with Kim to find that missing piece and then message
that back to Donald Trump you know that it's kind of a Hail Mary pass the closer
we we get to the end of the year but I would expect that when Jane's can be
working very hard to see is there some role for him to play that that middleman
because we we have seen where it's worked before a lot of the times he
doesn't get traction and he can't but I would expect him to be looking very hard
for that right so in any case we have an end-of-the-year deadline in any case and
we only have what two months left so we'll have to wait and see how this
works out in all three countries that's right it's a lot of pressure yep all
right John Drury thanks so much for insights we appreciate you as always
pleasure