there are going to be significant
economic impacts for businesses that's
why we're going to be talking very soon
about measures that Canada's gonna put
forward to support people in the
economic side on the health side we've
been continue to act in ways recommended
by the top experts by the top net and
medical professionals coordinate with
other levels of government coordinating
with the international community do
everything we can to keep ensuring that
Canadians are kept safe an economic
distress call is sounding and the Prime
Minister is promising to answer it CBC
News has learned tomorrow hi there and
welcome to power and politics on Bashi
Capello's from financial markets and oil
prices to travel and trade the corona
virus outbreak is posing a serious
threat to the global economy including
Canada Justin Trudeau insists measures
to help those most affected are coming
tomorrow
specifically he'll announce supports CBC
has learned for those facing immediate
pressures with more aid for other
sectors to be announced in the coming
days take a listen
my 9 percent of the cases that occurred
last night occurred outside of China
this isn't China right now the epicenter
the new China is Europe here are the
latest coronavirus numbers that will
give you an idea of why so many
countries are making announcements
including this one nearly 114 thousand
cases have been confirmed worldwide the
number of deaths now tops 4,000 110
countries in total are affected and
according to the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention in the US China
is no longer ground zero Italy is the
hardest hit country outside of China the
entire nation of 60 million people is
under lockdown after its death toll
surpassed 600 in response
Air Canada has suspended flights to and
from Italy here in Canada there are now
80 cases of Kovan 19 across four
provinces but that could change we're
set to bring you live press conferences
this evening from Edmonton and Victoria
health officials still say the risk of
contracting the virus in this country
remains low but what about the economic
risk how does the government plan to
protect the bottom lines of businesses
sectors and Canadians most affected by
this outbreak Jean Yves du Clos is the
president of the Treasury Board he's
also the vice chair of the government's
special Cabinet Committee on kovat 19 he
joins us from the House of Commons hi
Minister du Clos thanks for making time
hello Ashley and hello to everyone
listening my understanding Minister is
that your government is set to announce
tomorrow some support for people
affected by coronavirus and provinces as
well can you tell us specifically what
you'll be announcing indeed Minister
Frieden and myself and other members of
the Cabinet Committee on the coroner
virus have made important
recommendations today and more will be
known on that in the next few days well
can you give us some specifics about
those recommendations what can Canadians
expect for example are we going to see a
reduction of AI wait times an expansion
of the e aí program well these decisions
recommendations will as you said will be
related to helping workers and families
and businesses thrive and sustain
themselves in the important events as we
are currently undertaking so they will
be designed to help grow through the
crisis they both be supportive of not
only the health and the safety of
Canadians but also in the Economic
Security of workers and their families
and what's announced though will that be
the totality of the government's
response or can we expect more in the
budget no that will be a start because
as you know the situation is quickly
changing we are following every daily
situation we're having committees
committee members almost every day the
situation is challenging for many
Canadians and it will be an evolving
look at the situation and therefore an
evolving reaction on the part of the
government of Canada so there is more to
come in the budget is that fair to say
the budget will be of course another
important moment but as you might expect
since the situation is not going to stop
evolving at the budget there will be
things as we will need to keep
monitoring and further policy decisions
and actions to be taken as demanded by
the situation we already saw in the last
quarter of a slowing an extreme slowing
of GDP growth that is what is
anticipated to persist if not get worse
of coronavirus is your government
considering fiscal stimulus well first
let me say that we want to reassure
Canadians that in Canada the health
situation is is under control our our
risk is modest this being said we won't
also want to reassure Canadians that the
government is very focused on the
situation and will take every action
necessary to sustain ours or our
economic growth and to protect the
health and security of every Canadian
wherever they may happen to live with
respect Minister that doesn't answer
specifically the question where stimulus
is concerned is that under consideration
is fiscal stimulus under consideration
by your government right now yes by
definition this is fiscal stimulus this
is investment in in Canada and in
Canadians and an investment that will
adjust as the information in the
situation evolved so a number of
economists we've been speaking with over
the past few days have talked about the
type of stimulus that might be necessary
and the and tried to quantify it for us
and what they've all sort of are coming
the ballpark of is somewhere between
twenty and forty billion dollars if you
want stimulus to actually have an effect
it has to be about that size given the
size of of growth of GDP in this country
and the size of the economy is that your
assessment as well but that all depends
on how the situation evolves currently
as I said earlier and as we all know the
situation in Canada is quite different
from what we see elsewhere in the world
so the safety and the health of
Canadians are protected and and insured
in the manner which is quite different
from other conditions across the planet
the same thing for the economic
situation we are at the start of a
possibly big impact on the country and
the economy that's also but that's only
possible we need to be responsible and
following the situation and expect the
Canadian government to react and to act
as a situation demands with respect
Minister it's not just possible though I
take your point on the fact that it's
fluid and that we don't have certainty
about what is to come
but we saw a growth slow in the last
quarter already we've seen oil prices
and therefore revenues even if just in
alberta not just in alberta rather but
for the country as a whole they're going
to be impacted as well right korone of
our
has impacted a number of sectors of the
economy and certainly the global economy
and there has not been a global
recession
- which Canada has been totally immune
so I think it's fair maybe to ask I
understand that your government hasn't
made a decision on that but is it your
sense that stimulus would be required in
the neighborhood of twenty to forty
billion dollars and are you willing as a
government to add that much to the
deficit where we're certainly able we
have the fiscal room and the fiscal
power to intervene and to provide the
stimulus that the economy will demand
this being said we need to do it not
only in a fiscally responsible way but
in a manner which is fully in touch with
how Canadians fare and how workers and
businesses thrive across Canada so it
depends on all sorts of things and
you're right now there are others shot
that we need to take into account the
the price of oil the fact that
confidence outside of Canada is
weakening the fact that supply chains
are weakening as well so we need to be
mindful that there will be regional
considerations and also industrial
considerations but we have the power and
we have the willing the will and the
ability to make a difference if a
difference is needed are you sure about
that the Conservatives contend that your
party has laid the cupboard bare that
though you claim the fiscal capacity
exists because of the debt to GDP ratio
there is a twenty six billion dollar
deficit right now we haven't even taken
into account the promises that your
party made during the election which
amount to quite a bit of money nine
billion dollars I believe in the next
year do you do you really have a fiscal
capacity for this well we know and
understand that the conservators
unfortunately are trying to make
political gains on the back of the
health of safety of Canadians that's not
our objective our objective is to build
on the strong economic condition that we
currently have use our of considerable
fiscal Reuben power to invest as and
when needed in the in Canadians and in
workers we can do this knowing that we
have the best credit rating of all g7
countries we have the lowest debt
relative to the economy of all developed
economies we have a falling debt to GDP
ratio in the last few years so we're
very very strong from a fiscal stance
we're also very strong from an economic
point of view
we want to maintain that by investing in
Canadians if that is needed over the
next days and weeks is it really fair
though minister to say that
conservatives are trying to make
political points on the backs of the
health of the health rather of Canadians
I mean they're pointing out you know
something about the deficit deficit that
you're a party in the 2015 campaign
promised would be much smaller than it
is well we don't want to go back to the
conditions we had in 2015 we were in a
recession when we were elected in 2015
we were in the second recession in less
than seven years we don't want to go
back to those conditions we're much
better off today with 1.2 million new
jobs a million Canadians out of poverty
in the last four years so we have a very
strong very strong starting condition
Minister with respect is that that you
spent when those conditions were good
right and so now when the conditions are
bad or when they're worse the money
isn't there to to do so or if the money
is there it just adds further to the
deficit load of the country we have the
room and we have the the not only the
room of the ability and the willingness
to keep investing in Canadian and in
workers and particularly when times are
challenging now we know that the
investment we made in the last four
years have been very good in terms of
job creation in terms of economic growth
in terms of wages in terms of poverty
reduction in terms of protecting our
environment but now we're facing a
different challenge and we still have
the will and the ability to invest in
Canadians in Canada to address the
current challenge by made proposed by
the coroner virus the only point I would
make there is that growth was slowing
before coronavirus hit but just one more
question before I let you go Minister
when you talk about region addressing
regional issues and industrial issues
with what's going on right now the
Deputy Prime Minister Kristian Freeland
said today that she'd spoken to her
American counterpart Mike Pompeo about
protecting North America's oil and gas
sector can you let us know what exactly
that means well in the face of the
challenge which you correctly indicated
earlier the fight of the fall in the oil
price not a dispute between the
oil-producing countries Canada is is a
very important oil and gas producer and
so is the United States so we are we
share common advantages we also same
share common challenges in those in
those days so that's why
talking and collaborating with American
counterparts is so important it will
continue to do that because when the oil
and gas industry succeed in Canada we
also all succeed as Canadians what does
that mean though when she says
protecting North America's oil and gas
center sector rather what does that mean
well it means it means working together
to protect ourselves against the the
challenges posed by the external
situation but what measures would that
be well I could not talk openly about
those measures I know those measures are
being discussed by the two governments
and when they are known and able to be
implemented I know my colleague Minister
freedom will be able and happy to
announce them is the government
considering direct aid to Alberta well
we are mindful of the challenges and the
concerns of Canadians in the current
situation and as you said correctly just
a moment ago the situation is
complicated by a number of factors could
a coronal viruses within your key factor
but there are other things such as the
oil process all prized the tensions
across the world trade situations that
are quite complicated for an open
economy like Canada so we're mindful of
the whole set of circumstances and we
were able to react with the appropriate
and timely measures that Canada's expect
of us again Minister that doesn't really
answer the question are you considering
direct aid to Alberta given how hard
that province is going to be hit well I
think you'll you'll find out very soon
in the next few days that our aid will
benefit all Canadians and probably even
more those regions where we face more
severe challenges because of lower
growth in the last few years okay I'll
leave it there thank you so much
Minister Zhu Chloe she ate your time
this evening thank you and have a good
evening
as the corona virus spreads across
Europe and North America communities
have begun to take some extraordinary
measures Democratic presidential nominee
candidates Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders
both just moments ago canceled their
events tonight because of the virus
here's what's happening elsewhere have a
listen not a question if it will arrive
but when in New Brunswick students
family members and staff returning from
international travel have been ordered
to stay away from public schools for two
weeks
in the US a number of universities
including Harvard Princeton and Stanford
have moved classes online some are even
advising students not to return to
campus following spring break then there
are event cancellations last night Pearl
Jam announced it was postponing the
first leg of its tour which included
shows in Toronto Ottawa Quebec City and
Hamilton in the NHL the San Jose Sharks
may have to delay home games or play
them without fans that's after at the
California County they operate in band
mass gatherings meanwhile wheel of
fortune and jeopardy have decided to
tape their shows with out live audiences
over in Italy an entire nation is under
lockdown schools are closed football
matches are suspended and today the
government announced mortgage payments
are suspended until the outbreak is
under control in order to soften the
economic impact on individuals finally
across Ireland parades have been
cancelled to mark one of their biggest
celebrations of the year Saint Patrick's
Day
thousands of flights grounded millions
under quarantine financial markets in a
tailspin and oil prices crashing like
it's the 1991 Gulf War as the corona
virus spreads around the globe Canada's
economy is undoubtedly taking a toll but
just how much and can this country
weather it every Shen Feld is the
managing director and chief economist at
CIBC he joins us from Toronto hi mr.
Schoenfeld great to see you again nice
to be here so after a historically bad
day yesterday markets did appear to
rebound a bit today what's your
interpretation of how things went this
is all about what happens after what
happens next so I think we all have
braced ourselves for the fact that
economic activity is going to decline in
the coming quarter not not obviously in
Canada but just about everywhere
including Canada and the issue is what
hope is there after that and I think
markets are starting to focus in on
whether fiscal authorities including the
u.s. are gonna provide some stimulus
some sort of tax relief that might then
restore growth a little earlier that's
really what we're talking about and so
when you talk about what they're looking
for what the markets are looking for do
you anticipate we'll be in for a bit of
a rod
till there's some certainty around that
I think as long as the headlines keep
flashing every day about more cases
particularly more cases in the u.s. you
know it's one thing for the stock
markets particularly on Wall Street if
someone in China or Korea is getting
something but when their buddy who sits
next to them on the trading desk on Wall
Street gets the same illness seems to
have a much bigger effect so I don't
think we're out of the woods yet in
terms of this hits a confidence in the
markets or for that matter the hits of
the confidence in the economy as a whole
how significant is then the US efforts
to contain the spread where market
confidence is concerned where economic
confidence is concerned and there's a
bunch of mixed messaging around that
right now how detrimental is that so the
issue really here is that the things you
do to contain the spread of the virus
also exacerbate the near-term economic
slowdown so if you Lockley pull up the
way they did in China if you shut down
all of Italy as they've done you have a
huge economic dent in the near-term
which isn't great for financial markets
and you hope that that slows or stalls
out the spread of the virus later on so
the government's are in a bit of a
quandary how much economic activity do
give up now and what reward do you get
in terms of slowing the peak rates at
least of contagion down the road and
what are your expectations in the
Canadian context of and I and I fully
understand this is not an easy thing to
predict at all but when you're looking
towards you know the next corridor
particularly the quarter after that
where the economy is concerned what are
your expectations so we know that
consumer spending will slow we're not
traveling as if Canadian cities actually
see anything like what we're starting to
see in US cities then we in effect
expect a pullback in consumer activity
as well within Canada and and more
notably of course we have you know about
a half a percent off GDP growth from the
oil shock we've got a big hit to exports
because our major trading partners have
slowed so it all adds up to you know
pretty sure thing that the next quarter
is not going to look good where
economists don't know after that is what
epidemiologists don't know is is the
spread of the virus going to way
and therefore future quarters will look
a little bit better you know we may in
be in for a couple of quarters of
economic decline before we see that
story play out so what are the
implications then for the federal budget
from where you said the problem for
Ottawa is that they probably wrote the
budget already now they're they're gonna
change the economic assumptions in that
budget which will automatically show a
larger deficit that in effect is a good
thing you wouldn't want to raise taxes
or cut government spending to fight that
wider deficit we know that the
government is going to come up with
specific targeted provisions to help
people for example who are laid off or
in quarantine the real issue is do you
need a big stimulus package and I don't
think they're ready to announce that it
takes time to unveil it and a logical
thing to do would be then to put that
off for after the budget the question is
of course it's a minority government so
can they get the opposition or at least
one opposition party to agree to that to
phased approach do a little bit now see
how the economy goes and be prepared to
offer big time stimulus if the economy
actually needs it and what's the
advantage of I guess delaying that big
time stimulus is it just to get a better
read on the economy and then if you are
reading the economy at what point does
it jump out and say okay this is time
for big stimulus look if we if we could
deliver a big stimulus program tomorrow
maybe we would wave our magic wand and
do that but the problem is that these
things take time to design and to be
fair to the politicians and for that
matter the civil service who has to do
the work on this you know it was only in
the last few days that we knew that oil
had was plunging as far as it did and
really only in the last couple of weeks
that we saw the spread of the contagion
in the US and budgets takes months of
work so I think even in the White House
there was a false announcement that
there was going to be you know a tax
stimulus plan unveiled on Tuesday and
then the the people who work around mr.
Trump said well actually we don't have
that yet right
when it comes to the potential for
larger stimulus again taking into
account everything that you just laid
out we've heard if you want to make a
big dent if you want to create an actual
impact you need something in the
neighborhood
twenty to forty billion dollars is that
accurate from where you sit so I think
40 would be battling a huge recession
20 would be a moderate recession 10
billion would still do something so but
it's in the 10 billion dollar range
before it really makes a difference and
so that's why it's not so easy to do at
the drop of a hat because laying out
who's gonna get what money and when and
how is not an exercise that you can do
in a few days particularly if you want
to make sure that the money is going to
the places where it's going to be most
effective either in lifting growth
during this slow patch you might not be
able to do that people might be hunkered
down and unwilling to spend a check
you've just sent them but it might help
as we come out of hibernation down the
road encourage a quicker revitalization
of the economy if people have saved up
some of the money they got from Ottawa
or businesses have been sheltered in
some way and therefore are more able to
start spending and rehiring again okay
I'm gonna leave it there Thank You mr.
Schoenfeld pleasure as always to have
you on I appreciate your insights this
evening you're welcome
hi i'm mocchi Capello's host of power in
politics see more of our show by
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