INTRO: I’m sure you all know about the
Nile River. It is disputedly the longest river in the world and has been the lifeline for growth and
development across northeast Africa. The country that is by far the most dependent on the Nile is
Egypt where 95% of the country’s 102 million people live along the river banks. In fact,
Egypt’s population is so concentrated along the Nile that only about 4% of the country’s land is
actually used by people. The unforgiving deserts that surround the Nile have only exacerbated this
situation. Considering this, I don’t think you’d be surprised to hear that protecting the Nile
is the top priority for Egypt. Over the past century, they’ve signed dozens of treaties and
striked numerous deals to take down any project that threatens Egypt’s use of the Nile. But one
project that they were not able to stop is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam also known as the
GERD dam. The goal of the GERD dam was to capture the might of the Nile river to produce enormous
amounts hydroelectric power. In fact, the dam was projected to provide 65 million Ethiopians with
affordable electricity. This electricity can then be used to develop Ethiopia’s service, industrial,
and agricultural sectors and lift millions of Ethiopians out of poverty. But, wait a minute,
that sounds like a good thing. How could such a wholesome project be a negative. Well,
the truth is that it’s not a negative atleast not for Ethipia, but the same cannot be said about
Egypt. You see, the Nile river doesn’t flow from North to South as you might intuitively expect.
The Nile river actually flows south to north starting in Lake Victoria located in modern day
Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya and emptying into the Mediterranean Sea. This means
that Egypt actually gets the tailend of the river and that any operations upstream can
affect how much water Egypt receives. And as you probably already guessed,
the GERD dam is one such project. So, here’s the story of the dam that is threatening to end Egypt.
GERD DAM:
Taking a look back, while the GERD dam didn’t become a hot topic till the 2010s, the project
has actually been discussed for nearly 70 years. In fact, the US Bureau of Reclamation identified
the site fo the GERD dam somewhere between 1956 and 1964. But, work on the dam never got started
due to a slew of political issues. First of all, Ethiopia was under the control of an emperor named
Haile Selassie. Selassie was a controversial leader who had both good and bad intentions.
One one side, he introduced the country’s first written constitution, he abolished slavery, and he
tried to defend Ethiopia from an Italian invasion though he unsuccessful at doing so. On the other
side, however, he was also known for ruling with an iron first and doing whatever it took to keep
control. For example, he was known for suppressing rebellions and pushing the boundaries when it came
to human rights. And let’s just say, there were a lot of rebellions especially from the princes
of Ethiopia often referred to as the Mesafint. The Mesafint felt that Selassie’s reforms were
simply not good enough and that Ethiopia could be modernizing way faster if they were in control.
Ironically, if they simply shut up, Ethiopia might’ve modernized faster because Selassie was
spending a significant amount of time just keeping the Mesafint in check. This issue just became
worse with time as the rebellions would eventually boil over and become a military coup that resulted
in Selassie being assassinated in August of 1975. That wasn’t the end of it either. It was actually
just the beginning of a 17 year long civil war that would take Ethiopia into the 1990s. With all
this drama going on, building a dam simply wasn’t a top priority for anyone. Establishing stability
and peace was simply a far greater concern, and fortunately, Ethiopia would eventually reach some
level of this by the turn of the century. At this point, they could finally start investing
into the country and try to turn things around for the better, and the GERD dam was of course
one of these initiatives. Building the dam was by no means a fast process though. The Ethiopian
government would survey the land for several months between October of 2009 and August of 2010,
and the design of the dam would be finalized a few months later. With initial planning out of
the way, the Ethiopian government would award an Italian company named Salini Impregilo now known
as Webuild with the contract to build the dam. The contract was worth $4.8 billion and this was
by no means an easy amount to put together. For perspective, when this dam was approved,
the cost was over 10% of the country’s GDP. So, funding the dam was very much a national effort
for a full decade. The country sold bonds to their citizens and persuaded employees to contribute a
portion of their paycheck to the dam. Ethiopia also received international help from China
and some gulf countries. Construction of the dam is actually still underway
and it’s not expected to be completed till 2023. But, most of the dam has been completed
and Ethiopia started filling it up in July of 2020 which is when the controversy reached new heights.
ETHIOPIA’S PERSPECTIVE:
From Ethiopia’s perspective, the GERD dam is not only a development project or an infrastructure
project. The GERD dam is a natural right. Here’s the thing, it’s not like Ethiopia is crossing into
Egypt’s borders and directly stealing their water. In fact, Ethiopia doesn’t even share
a border with Egypt, they’re actually separated by Sudan. Not to mention, the blue nile literally
originates from Lake Tana which is located in Ethiopia. So, it makes no sense to Ethiopia
that Egypt is trying to tell them what they can and cannot do with their own natural resources.
That would be like Abu Dhabi telling Saudi Arabia to chill out on the oil production so that they
can keep oil prices high. If anything, Egypt should only have the power to put in a polite
request that Ethiopia consider how the dam would affect nearby countries and their people. But,
even if Egypt was being polite about it instead of trying to control the situation,
it’s not like Ethiopia has another option. It’s not like they’re building a vanity project like
the Burj Khalifa or the Jeddah Tower. If this was the case, Egypt could argue that
the welfare of Egyptians is more important that the frivolous luxury of Ethiopians,
but this is not the case. Ethiopia is building the GERD dam out of desperate need. Ethiopia is
one of the poorest countries in the world coming in at rank 170 when it comes to GDP per capita,
and that’s with the dam. Before the dam project, Ethiopia’s GDP per capita was literally $120. Now,
it’s not like Egypt is killing it and is a developed country either. But, Egypt has arguably
done far better than Ethiopia. Their current GDP per capita stands at $3,500 which is nearly 4
times Ethopia. So, when Ethiopia is given a choice between Ethopian’s welfare and Egyptian’s welfare,
the choice is obvious. It’s not even a question which country is in a more desperate state.
Literally over 90% of Ethiopians have been living in abject poverty for decades. So, it’s about time
that this finally changes. We should also note that Ethiopia has been as cautious as possible
every step of the way. After all, they’re goal is not to screw over Egypt. Their goal is to simply
advance their own country and they’re more than willing to try to minimize the damages to other
countries. A perfect example of this is their approach when it comes to filing up the dam
itself. Ethiopia has carefully timed each filling to take advantage of the Kiremt season which takes
place between June and September. This is when rainfall is at its peak meaning that Ethopia
can fill up their dam with the minimum amount of damage. Not to mention, Ethiopia is spreading out
the fills between 4 to 7 years. So, there’s little doubt that Ethiopia is approaching the dam as
slowly and methodologically as possible. Really, the only way Ethiopia could be more careful is to
just not do the project at all which is obviously not something that they’re willing to do.
EGYPT’S PERSPECTIVE:
Hearing Ethiopia’s perspective, it may seem like Egypt has a hard case to defend, but it’s not
that simple. From Egypt’s perspective, they have literally given up everything to defend the Nile.
And this doesn’t just apply to the GERD dam. Egypt has defended the Nile for centuries and they have
sacrificed so much for the river. Not to mention, they literally have legal rights to oversee and
influence upstream activities. This legal right was agreed upon way back in 1929 when the Nile
Waters agreement was signed by Egypt and Great Britain. At the time, Great Britain represented
Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Sudan. This treaty, however, did not include Ethiopia. In fact,
Ethiopia really wasn’t even considered. So, while Egypt has the legal right to veto upstream Nile
projects, Ethiopia argues that this right only extends to countries that were involved in the
treaty. Why should Ethiopia abide by a treaty that they weren’t even involved in. This wasn’t the
only treaty that Ethiopia was left out of either. In 1959, Egypt and Sudan formed an agreement to
split the Nile water. Egypt had rights to 55.5 billion cubic meters of Nile water and Sudan had
rights to 18.5 billion cubic meters of Nile water. So, once again from Egypt’s perspective, they
literally have the legal right to x cubic meters of water. And when Ethiopia’s activities threaten
that supply, they feel that they have the right to fight against Ethiopia. At the same time though,
Ethiopia wasn’t even involved in the discussions, so why should they be forced to follow any of the
treaties. But, Ethiopia can only pull out the “we weren’t even involved card” on these
two agreements because they were very much involved in the Cairo cooperation framework
of July 1993. This was an agreement directly between Egypt and Ethipia. In this agreement,
“Both countries pledged not to implement water projects harmful to the interests of the other
and consult over projects to reduce waste and increase the flow of waters.” While Ethiopia
had deniability with the other agreements, this one is as clear as day. Ethiopia literally agreed
to make decisions together with Egypt, but when it came to the GERD dam, it seems like they took
a solo approach. I think you can start to see why Egypt thinks that Ethiopia is in the wrong. Also,
Egypt doesn’t just have a legal basis against Ethiopia but also a humanitarian one. While
Egypt is more well off than Ethiopia economically, this doesn’t mean that they’re in a position where
they can negotiate on the Nile. 97% of Egypt’s fresh water comes from the Nile. And the Nile’s
water flow has already been on a decline over the past several decades. Combine this with Egypt’s
rapidly growing population, and you’re left in a position where Egypt is facing an annual water
deficit of 7 billion cubic meters. In fact, at the current deficit, Egypt could run out
of water by 2025. Considering this, who actually has the greater natural right to the Nile. Is it
Ethiopia where much of the water originates or is it Egypt where much of the water is actually used?
THE FIGHT FOR THE NILE: The fight between Ethiopia and Egypt is still
very much an ongoing situation and is extremely fluid. By the time the GERD dam is filled up,
some studies suggest that the Nile’s fresh water flow to Egypt may be reduced by 25%. Additionally,
the electricity produced by Egyptian dams may be reduced by ⅓. This would likely take
a massive toll on the agriculture that takes place around the Nile which accounts for 60% of Egypt’s
food. On the other hand, the GERD dam has already started to pay off for Ethiopia despite not even
being complete. I mean, just look at Ethiopia’s GDP over the past 10 years. The dam was of course
not the only project contributing to this rise, but it definitely played a major role. Given that
the GERD dam will become the largest hydropower facility in Africa once completed, Ethiopia likely
has a lot more benefits to reap from the GERD dam, but that’s only if the rest of it is filled. Who
do you think is in the right? Egypt or Ethiopia? Comment that down below. Also, drop a like if you
hope that both countries are able to sort this out before the situation becomes irreversible. And of
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