On the morning of June 7th, 2023, at 4:44 am local time, a body of lava burst through
the caldera floor of Kilauea, starting a new eruption.
This video clip courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey displays the eruption's first few moments.
Lava fountains during the initial moments initially shot to a height of 153 meters or
502 feet.
Several seconds later, fragments of molten rock fell back to the ground, where they began
flowing towards lower sections of the caldera floor.
Lava fountains soon were reduced to a height of less than 10 meters or 33 feet, but over
time, additional fissures and scattered new vents opened up on the crater floor.
By an hour later, what I estimate to be a square kilometer of the caldera floor had
already been covered in glowing orange lava.
For some context, the Kilauea volcano is the youngest and most active of the 4 active volcanoes
which make up the Big Island of Hawaii.
Since 1900, Kilauea has erupted more than 50 times, with there being about a 55% chance
it was actively erupting at any point since then.
Just like the ongoing eruption, the vast majority of these recent eruptions occurred within
the summit caldera of Kilauea, called Halemaumau.
This caldera last expanded during 2018 when a flank eruption caused magma to drain away
from the caldera, triggering a collapse.
Luckily, there is currently no indication that the erupting lava will drain away and
travel elsewhere on the island.
Thus, those of you in Pahoa and Leilani Estates in the east rift zone or those who like to
hike along the southwest rift zone should feel relatively safe for now.
Were a flank eruption to occur, it would be preceded by a sudden drop in lava levels at
Halemaumau crater along with a series of earthquakes which would track along the magma's path before
it erupted.
Currently, lava is being exclusively emitted within the caldera and will likely remain
there for the duration of the eruption.
Although the rate of lava effusion may have peaked at around a rate of 20 cubic meters
per second, in my opinion it has probably decreased already to less than 7 cubic meters
per second.
Regardless, this eruption in my opinion is almost completely safe to view as there is
no explosive component to it as no ash has been generated, meaning it would be rated
on the volcanic explosivity index as a 0.
Yet, due to the abundant lava Kilauea is emitting it is also producing something else, a series
of gasses and aerosols which include sulfur dioxide, with the amount of released gas roughly
correlating with the amount of erupting or shallow magma.
These gasses can create what is known as vog or volcanic fog, which if it gets strong enough
can cause negative health effects especially for those in sensitive groups or those with
asthma.
Other than vog, the current eruption of Kilauea does not pose any hazards to nearby towns
such as Volcano.
Although about half of Kilauea's eruptions since 1900 have lasted a week or less, in
my opinion the current eruption will probably last on the order of 2.5 to 10 months.
Kilauea until today had not erupted since March 7th of 2023, and that date marked the
end of a 61 day long eruption.
Yet in comparison, the current eruption seems to initially involve a larger amount of magma,
there had been a longer period for Kilauea's shallow magma chamber to recharge since its
last eruption, and the ground deformation at its summit had exceeded values produced
before the January 2023 eruption by a notable amount.
During the current eruption, it is quite likely that the number of active vents and fissures
will slowly reduce in number until only one vent is left.
This might form a small spatter cone or hornito, and along the way what are likely to be millions
of cubic meters of lava will continue to fill a section of the down dropped block left by
Kilauea's 2018 eruption.
We will know if the current eruption is slowly coming to an end if summit ground subsidence
begins on a small scale which could indicate that the amount of magma intruding into the
subsurface is being outweighed by the amount of erupting lava.
Thanks for watching!
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