In 2017, it'll be 70 years since India broke off from the British Empire and became an
independent country, which today, is actually the largest democracy in the world.
In these 70 years, India has managed to implement a political system, with more than 1,000 parties,
and high female participation that is totally unprecedented in such a poor country.
Of course, we should wait before we pop the champagne...
Because we can't precisely say that these 70 years of independence have gone brilliantly
in this gigantic country of more than 1.2 billion people:
poverty, inequality, a terrible caste system and many, many problems with women's rights
have continued to shake this nation.
That...
And 4 wars with Pakistan, which has become something of an archenemy…
But, if you really want to know why we might claim that India CAN'T be that proud of the
last 70 years, well, we only need to compare this country's evolution with that of China.
See, when Deng Xiaoping launched his policy to open China up to the world and change it's
economic model back in the 1980s, the sizes of these two economic giants, China and India,
were similar.
In 2016, however, China's GDP was 5 times higher.
Check out this graph: And not only that, these differences repeat
in practically every statistic - social and economic.
Another example?
Well, while China's illiteracy affects less than 4% of the population, in India almost
1 out of 3 people can't read or write.
So, considering all this, we could almost reach the conclusion that the only good thing
that this country has achieved has been its democracy, right?
Well wait a second, because it seems that this poverty and injustice situation is beginning
to shift...
More and more experts are betting that the 21st century will be, above all, India's century.
That is to say, that in the next few decades we'll witness how this country emerges from
the developing world to become an economic super power.
Many companies, such as Amazon and Apple are already betting on this transformation and
are paying close attention to this huge market.
They understand that, if expectations are met, in the next few years we could see one
of the biggest business opportunities in history.
And it's not just companies.
The Delhi government's own expectations are so high that they expect this country's transformation
to be at least as impressive as that of China in the coming decades.
For this reason, they want to be prepared.
They are contemplating, for example, building 250 airports, 6 new macro-ports and creating
more than 150 million new and accessible homes in the next 10 years alone…
In other words...
everything indicates that we may see India's great takeoff.
Which is a good thing, right?
Well keep one thing in mind, Beijing doesn't like this, not at all…
DISTRUST AND RESENTMENT
China is India's main trading partner.
However, despite this, Chinese authorities look at India's growing economic, political
and military capacity with a lot of distrust.
This is because this is a time when China wants to gain political influence, and this
change in India doesn't suit them at all...
India is perhaps the only country in Asia with enough potential to offset China's political
power in the region.
After all, we are talking about what will soon be the most populated country on earth.
And, there's even analysts who affirm that this has already happened - that India has
surpassed China in population size.
But it isn't only that...
Because of the one-child policy that affected China for so many years, India's population
has - and will have – more young people and less elderly people.
Which is quite an advantage.
Given these circumstances it's easy to understand Beijing's distrust
of India.
Don't you think?
Now...
Don't think that this feeling only exists in political offices, not at all in fact.
This growing rivalry is also reflected on the streets.
Consider the following data:
According to a survey published in 2016 by the Pew Research Center, only 1 in 4 Chinese
people have a favorable opinion of India.
And in India's case, it isn't more encouraging: 7 out of 10 are worried about Beijing's military
drive and believe that China's economic influence is hurting them.
In other words, it seems that both China and India's population know that their neighbors
are also their great rivals.
In any case, curiously, it must be said that despite all this rivalry Bollywood is becoming
quite popular in China...
This summer, we saw how Dangal, an Indian blockbuster, swept the Chinese box office
and became one of the highest grossing films in China of all time.
Of course, well, the Beijing government does not like this at all.
Audio: “In terms of soft power, India has done better than China [...] Although India’s
economy is not as developed, they have put a huge emphasis on promoting their culture”.
Jiang Jingkui, director of the Southeast Asian Research Institute at Peking University.
Anyway, it'd be great if all tensions occurred in such a, let's say, peaceful field…
But, unfortunately, that's not the case.
DISPUTES IN THE HIMALAYAS
While everyone was looking at Pyongyang, and the North Korean nuclear crisis occupied every
front page, another political crisis was about to explode.
It happened in the Himalayas, more than 4000 meters above sea level, in one of the most
remote places of Earth: the Doklam plateau.
In this place, between June and August, one of the most serious political crises between
China and India in the last 55 years occurred: when Chinese troops invaded northern India.
See, on June 8th, 2017, a squad of Chinese border guards and a construction team entered
a territory that is disputed between China and the small, closed, kingdom of Bhutan.
Bhutan?
The country with the highest “Gross National Happiness.”
Yep, and that’ll certainly be something we discuss one day.
Well, the fact is that the Chinese units destroyed several bunkers owned by the Bhutan Royal
Army and began to build a road.
However, as Bhutan's protection has been in India's hands since the 40s, Indian troops
arrived on June 16th and blocked the road's construction.
So far, a typical border conflict...
However, tensions didn't dilute but increased… and the discussions between Beijing and New
Delhi became quite tense.
“China and India are dangerously close to military conflict in the Himalayas”.
The Washington Post.
The Chinese state media began to threaten the Indian government with serious consequences…
So, at this point, you may be wondering,
Why on earth was a land that is practically frozen for most of the year given such importance?
Well, on the one hand it seems that Xi Jinping's government wanted to test India and "punish"
them for... well, many things:
For their relationship with the Dalai Lama and Tibet, for their growing ties with Washington,
for their relations with Pakistan, and so on.
And with regard to India, because China's control in this area – with its military
presence and new road - would put China within a stone's throw of the so-called "Siliguri
Corridor", a narrow strip of land considered strategic because it connects seven of the
states of northeast India with the rest of the country.
You can see this well on the map.
And above all, beyond tactical issues, for another important reason.
The same reason why China wanted to test India... you'll see what I'm talking about in a minute...
The fact is that, finally on Monday, August 28th, after many strips and slacks, many threats
and a lot of tension, both sides agreed to withdraw their troops and return to the starting
point of this entire political muddle.
Of course, years ago both powers' rivalry wasn't as obvious as it is now.
And of course, let's not fool ourselves, the Doklam plateau is... well… the least of
it.
And I'm not saying this just because of the more than 3,000 km of border that have territorial
disputes between China and India.
There are...
Many more reasons.
A NATIONAL STRATEGY
Given the possible emergence of India as a superpower, the Chinese government has adopted
a strategy: to surround it.
Yeah, that’s exactly as it sounds what it sounds like…
In recent years China has tightened its ties with Pakistan in exchange for $60 billion
in infrastructure, especially to connect both countries, including a strategic port in Gwadar
that China will operate until at least the year 2050…
On the other hand, a Chinese government company has taken control of Hambantota port in Sri
Lanka, a country with which Beijing is also strengthening political ties.
Regarding Bangladesh, China has become its most important arms supplier.
Last year they sold them two submarines…
And finally Nepal, which greatly improved its relationship with China after a political
conflict in 2015 with New Delhi.
Now let's look at a map.
See?
India is surrounded.
The Bhutan criss wasn't more than a move in this chess game.
A game in which China has the economic capacity, and the money, to make friends easily.
And of course, the fact that China's military superiority over India is overwhelming is
also very helpful.
So a question that must arise is: after all of this… what is India's bet, or rather,
their response?
Basically, three words: The United States.
Yes, as you heard it.
In recent years, relations between the United States and India have become quite close.
See, between 2009 and 2016 bilateral trade doubled, and the sale of military equipment
from the United States to India multiplied by 50!
In fact, everything indicates that India is going to replace their old Mig 21 with a mega
contract of newly manufactured F16s (200 of them).
And if this is confirmed, Lockheed Martin's intention, the manufacturer, - with the Pentagon's
approval, of course - is to transfer all of this plane's worldwide production from Texas
to India.
An unbeatable way to strengthen alliances, don't you think?
Well, now we can better understand not only China and India's tense relationship, but
also, for example, the US's new hard strategy towards Pakistan, which we discussed in our
previous video about Afghanistan.
And of course, all of this starts based on a premise: India will emulate the economic
success that China has achieved in recent decades...
Narendra Modi, the popular Indian Prime Minister, of whom we already talked about, is leading
many changes...
But not as many as the country needs.
But we can leave this for another day.
Now, it's your turn.
Do you think that China will succeed in beating India?
Leave your answer in the comments below!
Also, don’t forget to subscribe to our channel for brand new videos every Monday and Thursday.
Also, don’t forget to check out our friends at the Reconsider Media Podcast - they provided
the vocals in this episode that were not mine!
And hey, if you are looking for something else to watch, check out Biographics…
And as always, thanks for watching!