John: With summer travel
forecast to be high, even by
pre-pandemic standards,
passengers are having to deal
with thousands of flight
cancellations.
Major carriers have the plains
but don't always have the pilots
to fly them.
When demand for air travel
plunged during the pandemic,
airlines offered furloughs and
early retirement, and are now
struggling to meet demand.
Miles o'brien joins me to
discuss this.
There was a talk about a pilot
shortage even before the
pandemic.
How quickly and easily can this
be solved?
Miles: If you waved a magic wand
and said pilots don't absolutely
positively have to retire at age
65, which some people would
agree is not the best line in
the sand for a lot of
individuals.
They get checked out by a doctor
thoroughly twice a year.
You could do it on a more
case-by-case basis.
That would leave a lot of the
very experience, some of the
best pilots on the job.
The other individual is the 1500
hour air transport pilot
requirement.
This came in the wake of the
Buffalo crash of 2009.
Congress decided to raise the
bar for beginner pilots.
They have to have this phd of
flying and 1500 hrs.
It costs well into the six
figures to get all of those
hours and ratings, and what you
get?
A job at a regional carrier that
pays about $20.
For some reason, people are
lining up for that.
If you raise the pay and maybe
came up with a little more
margin or wiggle room on that
1500 hour requirement, and
raised the retirement age, you
might be able to solve it pretty
quickly.
John: Those things need
legislation to solve, right?
To change those requirements?
Miles: Legislation or FAA
rulemaking.
This is when things slow down,
as you know.
There is pressing demand.
People want to fly.
The pandemic hastened all of
these retirements.
The airlines are in a bit of a
fix.
The honest-to-goodness truth is
if they paid their people more,
we probably would not have this
brings along.
I'm never going to say a
65-year-old guy is unsafe to
fly, but yes, there are cases
where people should be -- for
medical reasons, told not to fly
anymore.
But you can do this on a
case-by-case.
They are seen by doctors already
and an evaluation can be made on
an ongoing basis.
There could be some wiggle room.
As far as the hours, there are
hours and then there are hours.
Are they strict academic hours?
If you go to one of the aviation
schools, you don't have to do
the full 1500 hrs.
That tells you the kind of hours
you are getting are at or
quality.
Maybe there are ways to make
those hours more valuable and
increase the training value.
The other thing never addressed
in the wake of the Buffalo crash
is the regional airliners, the
small airplanes.
They look like they are the big
players but they are run by
small companies, which duty bare
minimum for safety requirements
and training.
The legacy carriers go above and
beyond.
Maybe the bar should be set
where the legacy carriers put it
for the regionals as well and
that safety issue won't be as
big an issue.
John: The big pilots union says
there is no shortage, that there
are plenty of qualified pilots
for the vacancies at the
What is the difference of how
they look at this?
Miles: I think there are plenty
of qualified pilots if you raise
the age, if you look at lowering
the number of hours, for
example, to allow people to come
in.
What does qualified mean?
Where do you set the lines?
How many hours do you need to
get in and how many years are
too much at the end?
These are debatable lines we
draw in the sand.
With regulations, you have to
pick numbers.
But often many qualified people
are told to go home.
That is probably not good.
John: You mentioned regional
carriers.
Is this having a
disproportionate impact on
small, regional airports and
service to those airports?
Miles: Absolutely.
This is where you get your first
job after you spent to get your
1500 hrs.
You sign up for a regional
player to fly the smaller jets
on the so-called commuter
routes.
That's where the real trouble
is.
This is where the initial hiring
into the system begins.
They will always be the leading
edge indicator.
John: Miles o'brien, inc. You
very much.
Miles: You are welcome, John.