bjbjLULU JUDY WOODRUFF: Margaret Warner takes the story from there. MARGARET WARNER: For
more on why Arab leaders are stepping up the pressure on Syria, we're joined by Michele
Dunne, formerly at the State Department and National Security Council, now director of
the Atlantic Council's Middle East Center, and Shibley Telhami, a professor of government
and politics at the University of Maryland. He conducts public opinion surveys in the
Middle East and has just returned from a polling trip there. Welcome, both of you, back to
the program. First, let's start with today's news, Michele Dunne, King Abdullah saying
if he were Assad, he would be stepping aside right now. Why would he speak up now? MICHELE
DUNNE, The Atlantic Council: Well, I think for King Abdullah, first of all, Syria -- has
always viewed Syria as more of a threat than a friend to Jordan. And he's responding to
public opinion within his own country that is against the Syrian regime and also to Saudi
Arabia. Jordan is extremely close to Saudi Arabia, and the Saudis have now taken a pretty
hard stance against Bashar al-Assad. So King Abdullah is placing himself in alignment there.
MARGARET WARNER: Which takes us then to the Arab League vote, Shibley Telhami, on Saturday.
Most accounts called it unexpected. What explains the Arab League taking on essentially one
of its core members? SHIBLEY TELHAMI, University Of Maryland: Well, it's interesting because
it was unexpected. I mean, the Arab League is usually very conservative on those issues.
When it took a position on Libya, it was seen to be an exception to the rule. So this was
very unusual. But there are two things going on here. One is a little bit of score-settling,
particularly among the powerful members of the Arab League at the moment, including the
GCC, particularly Saudi Arabia. MARGARET WARNER: The Gulf Cooperation Council. SHIBLEY TELHAMI:
The Gulf Cooperation Council. But there is public opinion. Everybody is terrified by
public opinion. And if you look at the way the sentiment has changed over the past year,
there's no question that it has soured on the Syrian government. And in the case of
Jordan in particular, I just received the public opinion poll from Jordan that I'm releasing
next Monday, in the context, a big public Arab opinion poll. Overwhelmingly, the Jordanians
are opposed to -- taking the side of demonstrators against the government in -- in Syria. Everybody
is nervous about that. And I think they're responding just like everybody else -- every
government is trying to respond. The Arab League is trying to respond, even though it
is a league of Arab states. MARGARET WARNER: Michele Dunne, this is a group of nations
that has never been hugely responsive to public opinion in the past, and they often have not
spoken out against atrocities by fellow members. Is this all a result of the Arab uprising,
because they're all nervous now about their own position? MICHELE DUNNE: Oh, very much
so. I think that they are concerned about public sentiment in the region and not showing
themselves to be too much out of step. I think the Arab states, a lot of them are also concerned
about a changing strategic regional picture. And, you know, the interesting thing here
is that the Arab leaders are -- they're placing their bets against Bashar al-Assad. They seem
to think that he's going to go. And they want to be on the right side of that and have Syria
aligned with them, no longer with Iran and not with Turkey, for example. They want to
have Syria with the Arab states if there's going to be a new Syria. MARGARET WARNER:
Is the Iranian-Syrian competition for influence in the region, Shibley Telhami, part of the
underlying -- some strategic calculations for some of these countries? SHIBLEY TELHAMI:
Oh, there's no question. I mean, when I say score-settling, it's part of the strategic
score-settling. I mean, you have to take Syria into an historic perspective. Dating back
to the 1980s war between Iraq and Iran, where the -- most of the Arab states supported Iraq
in that war. Syria was the only one who took Iran's side, and obviously more of late, there's
been a strategic relationship between Iran and Syria. The Hezbollah factor in Lebanon
is a huge factor for some of them. including Jordan... MARGARET WARNER: Supported by the
Syrians. SHIBLEY TELHAMI: ... but especially the Saudis, where there's a lot of competition.
It's interesting because, in Lebanon itself, you know, the public is very divided on Syria.
MARGARET WARNER: Let me just go on to now the effect this is likely to have. Now, a
lot of the Arab League officials said we're not trying to do what we were trying to do
with Libya, and we're not trying to set the stage for international intervention, but
could it lead to that? MICHELE DUNNE: Well, I think there are several things that this
Arab League move will lead to. First of all, they are trying to get the Syrian opposition
a little bit more unified. They have invited the Syrian opposition leaders to come to Cairo
and have some conversations with the Arab League, because there's still a significant
rift between the opposition inside and outside of Syria and between civilians and those who
left the Syrian military. So that's an issue. But I think the Arab League decision will
maybe have more effect outside of Syria. For example, there's the question of whether Turkey
will place economic sanctions on Syria, whether the Arab League states will, and whether Russia
and China will now come under more pressure to go along with other members of the international
community, for example, in a U.N. Security Council resolution against Syria. MARGARET
WARNER: But if Assad defies this latest pressure move, then what does the Arab League do next?
In other words, are they taking a bit of a gamble here that they are calling Assad's
bluff, but he could turn around and call their bluff? SHIBLEY TELHAMI: It's a slippery slope.
And the problem for them too is that while Arab public opinion is decidedly against Assad,
they don't want to see international intervention in Syria. MARGARET WARNER: Because? SHIBLEY
TELHAMI: And even on Libya... MARGARET WARNER: And why? SHIBLEY TELHAMI: Because of the -- there
is still very deep suspicion of the intention of international intervention. And even in,
you know -- in my polling, I ask a question of whether they think the intervention in
Libya in retrospect has been a good one or not. In Jordan and Lebanon, they're still
divided on this one. They're still suspicious of the international intervention. And so
there is a problem. However, if you take aside the Libyan intervention, you can imagine,
for example, a safe haven-type intervention. And that's the kind of incrementalism that
could be -- don't think Libya model. Think a different model. And I think, eventually,
if this -- if the killing continues, I see an escalation that will lead to some kind
of international step in Syria. MARGARET WARNER: So, very briefly -- we only have about 30
seconds -- what impact is this going to have on Assad? MICHELE DUNNE: I don't think he
will respond to this. He hasn't responded to a lot of other initiatives, so it makes
him more isolated, but I don't expect to see him changing his tactics toward the uprising
because of this. MARGARET WARNER: What do you think? SHIBLEY TELHAMI: The real interesting
question is what his elders will do, the people who are around him. Are they going to throw
him under the bus at some point, like the Egyptian military threw Mubarak under the
bus? That's really the interesting question. For now, they have decided not to do so. MARGARET
WARNER: Shibley Telhami and Michele Dunne, thank you both. MICHELE DUNNE: You're welcome.
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