As Kosovo marks 15 years since its declaration of independence,
it remains a serious point of tension in the Western Balkans.
Having led to numerous confrontations, some of which have threatened to push the region back
into conflict, it also remains a source of division on the international stage.
But there's now a major new effort to try to break the deadlock.
So, what is the problem all about? Why has it been so difficult to reach a settlement?
And can this latest effort succeed where so many others have failed?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
One of the most important questions in modern international relations centres on
the relationship between the self-determination of peoples and the territorial Integrity of states.
Should ethnic groups have the right to Independence if they want it?
Or should state borders always be sacrosanct?
Ultimately, in a world made up of states, territorial integrity won.
While self-determination is still regarded as a core principle of the international system,
and is even included in the UN Charter, it came to be understood in two distinct ways.
In cases of colonial control, it meant a right to
Independence - usually called external self-determination.
In cases affecting groups within established states, it was understood to mean a right to
meaningful self-rule within the existing borders of that country.
This could mean anything from special language rights to
some sort of federal or confederal arrangement.
There was no right to Independence.
But while these principles were seemingly settled by the 1970s,
the debate emerged again in 2008 when Kosovo unilaterally declared independence.
While most of the West recognised it as a sovereign independent state,
many other major countries, including Russia and China, refused to accept its statehood.
15 years later, it still firmly divides International opinion.
And although efforts have been made to try to establish a working relationship between
Kosovo and Serbia, the underlying issue of its status still causes significant
friction - friction that sometimes threatens to boil over into armed confrontation.
Kosovo lies in southeast Europe.
At around 11,000 square kilometres,
or 4,200 square miles, it would be the 160th largest member of the United Nations.
Landlocked, Serbia is to its north and east.
To its south is North Macedonia and to its west is Albania.
Montenegro lies to its Northwest.
The population currently stands at around 1.9 million.
The exact ethnic makeup is disputed as ethnic Serbs boycotted the last census, in 2011.
However, it's believed that Albanians make up
over 90 percent of the population and Serbs between four and seven percent.
In addition, there are other small communities, including Bosniaks, Turks, and Roma.
Kosovo has a long and fascinating history.
The centre of the ancient Illyrian Kingdom of Dardania,
from which the Albanians claim descent, it came under Roman and
Byzantine rule before being conquered by the Serbian Kingdom in the 13th century.
After that, in the 15th century, it then became part of the Ottoman Empire.
This lasted until the start of the 20th century when Kosovo,
already by now overwhelmingly inhabited by ethnic Albanians, was conquered by Serbia,
which in turn became a part of the new Yugoslav Kingdom following the First World War.
But our story really starts after the Second World War when Yugoslavia came
under communist rule and became a federation of six republics: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia,
Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Slovenia.
Although Kosovo was granted full autonomy within Serbia, and in 1974 was granted a
similar status to the republics, the Kosovo Albanians wanted full republic status.
This in turn led to growing tensions and, as a result,
in March 1989 the Serbian authorities unilaterally revoked Kosovo's autonomy.
As Yugoslavia began to break apart in the early 1990s,
pressure grew in Kosovo to be allowed to break away as well and in September
1991 an unauthorised referendum showed overwhelming support for independence.
However, while the republics became independent countries, albeit after a series of bitter and
brutal wars, Kosovo's right to independence was rejected by the international community.
Instead, it continued to be regarded as a part of Serbia,
which, along with Montenegro, now made up what was left of Yugoslavia.
Frustrated by their fate, the Kosovo Albanians launched an
armed uprising, which in turn led to a brutal counter-insurgency campaign by Serbian forces.
Faced with the prospect of yet another Balkan war, international peace talks were held in early 1999.
But after seven weeks of discussions the talks broke down.
Blaming Serbia for the failure, NATO now began bombing the country - a
highly controversial action carried out without UN security Council authorisation.
After two and a half months, the NATO campaign came to an end when
Serb forces withdrew and Kosovo, which was still considered to be
a part of Yugoslavia under the terms of U.N security Council Resolution 1244,
was placed under U.N Administration pending a final decision on its status.
Although efforts were made to establish democratic self-rule in Kosovo,
in 2004 serious inter-ethnic writing broke out
As a result, the UN Security Council authorised the start of status talks.
However, after 18 months of discussion, the sides remained fundamentally at odds.
While Serbia was willing to accept extensive autonomy,
the Kosovo Albanian leadership insisted on full independence.
With growing fears that any further delay could lead to serious violence,
the United States and key EU members decided that there was no choice but
to allow Kosovo to go its own way according to a plan put forward by the UN mediator.
On 17 February 2008, Kosovo unilaterally declared independence.
From the start, a fierce diplomatic battle over recognition broke out between Serbia
and Kosovo as they attempted to win round the international community.
For Kosovo and its Western supporters, the argument was that while unilateral secession
was generally opposed, Kosovo amounted to a unique case in international relations.
As they argued, this was due to its highly autonomous status within Yugoslavia;
the history of Serbian human rights abuses,
including the decision to remove its autonomy; and its period spent under UN Administration.
In contrast, Serbia, along with many other countries,
including Russia and China and five EU members, refused to accept this.
They argued that Kosovo had no right to unilaterally secede
and that any settlement must be acceptable to both sides.
As a result, Moscow and Beijing have blocked Kosovo's UN membership.
Meanwhile, the U.N General Assembly, at Serbia's request, referred the declaration
of independence to the International Court of Justice - the world's highest court.
However, it sidestepped the issue.
While it ruled that international law didn't prohibit declarations of independence,
it refused to say whether Kosovo was in fact a state.
In 2010, the European Union began efforts
to try to normalise relations between Belgrade and Pristina.
This led to an apparent breakthrough in April 2013 when the sides agreed
measures to integrate ethnic serbs into Kosovo's institutions in return for
autonomy arrangements for majority ethnic Serb areas within Kosovo in
the form of a body to be known as the Association of Serbian Municipalities.
Since then, however, the situation has deteriorated.
The battle over recognition has again intensified.
Having been recognised by half the UN, new endorsements have now dried up.
The last one was Israel in 2020.
At the same time, Serbia appears to have persuaded anywhere up to
a dozen countries to reverse their recognitions.
Meanwhile, tensions have grown on the ground.
As the Kosovo government has attempted to assert its control,
the Serbian inhabited areas in the north have resisted.
At the same time, efforts to create the Association have stalled after Kosovo's
Supreme Court ruled that elements of it would be contrary to the Constitution.
All this has led to increasingly frequent confrontations.
The most recent of these was in late 2022,
when Pristina insisted that Kosovo Serb cars use Kosovo license plates.
While the crisis was eventually defused,
there were nevertheless fears that it could have led to violent clashes.
And it's for these reasons that another attempt is now being made to broker an agreement.
In January 2023, a group of senior officials representing France, Germany, the European
Union, the United States and Italy traveled to Belgrade and Pristina to present a new proposal.
In essence, the plan consisted of two key elements.
First, while Serbia is not expected to recognise Kosovo, at least at this stage,
it will drop any further opposition to Kosovo's membership in international
organisations, including the United Nations.
In return, Kosovo will press ahead with creating the Association of Serbian Municipalities.
But what's made the proposal so controversial is that it's
understood to be underpinned by threats of heavy punishment if the sides reject it.
This means withholding aid and investments.
And for Serbia even includes suggestions that its EU membership talks could be suspended.
Despite this, the proposed plan has nevertheless
met with strong opposition in both Serbia and Kosovo.
Many in Serbia see it as capitulation.
Once Kosovo joins the UN, then it'll be gone for good.
Serbia will also be left in the uncomfortable position of not
recognising a fellow UN member while almost everyone else will.
That said, the Serbian president has
been warning about the dangerous consequences of rejecting the plan.
Meanwhile, in Kosovo, many view the association as a threat to the very stability of the country.
They fear it will replicate the complex political system in nearby Bosnia,
where the Serbian entity has strong powers to shape national policy.
On top of this, they argue that it wouldn't even
guarantee recognition by other countries, nor UN membership.
Despite this, Kosovo prime minister, who has in the past strongly opposed the creation
of the Association, has now said that the proposal represents a basis for further talks.
While one gets the impression that the plan may well go through,
not least of all given the huge pressure put on the sides, there's little doubt that it's flawed.
Ultimately, it's merely a patch for the problem.
It's not the final settlement that's really needed.
Instead, it will just see the problems build up again as Kosovo doesn't get
the recognition it wants and Serbian autonomy will almost certainly be delayed.
In this sense, the plan is simply not ambitious enough.
If the EU and US are willing to use such strong coercion,
it would seem to make more sense to push for a final deal.
However, this can only occur when the sides and their international
supporters are prepared to accept several fundamental realities.
First, Serbia's legitimate grievances over Kosovo have got to be acknowledged.
Whatever the justification for acting in 1999,
the 2008 declaration of independence stood against established International principles.
No other country has had territory forcibly removed in this way in the modern era.
For example, no country accepted Kurdistan's right to independence after the fall of Saddam
Hussein in Iraq; even though they too had suffered significant human rights abuses.
In Serbia, therefore, the West's actions have been
seen as hypocritical and unfair and this has fed deep resentment.
But Serbia must also recognise that it was unrealistic to expect Kosovo to remain a
part of Serbia when the other parts of Yugoslavia, including parts the same
size or smaller than Kosovo, went their own way and became independent states.
Kosovo may not have been a republic by law, but it was in all but name.
Given its previous history of autonomy, its different ethnic composition,
and its history of oppression, independence was, and is, the most logical outcome.
But tied to this, Kosovo must also understand that, as an independent state,
it's bound to also accept the principle of internal self-determination.
This means granting the Kosovo Serbs a degree of autonomy, as it agreed.
This isn't about accepting what Serbia wants.
Instead, it's about accepting the principles and rights contained in
the UN Charter and which it argues it was denied when it was part of Serbia.
Ultimately, neither Serbia nor Kosovo,
nor their supporters, have been willing to acknowledge each other's positions.
However, if they were to do so, and fully accept that the unresolved nature of this
dispute is holding them back, some progress might be made - especially if the EU and US
offer far greater incentives to the sides to put the past behind them and look to a new future.
For Kosovo, this will mean finally taking its
place as a fully equal member of the international community.
For Serbia, it means joining the European Union and ending the deep grievances and resentments
that have created an unnatural wedge with its neighbours and partners in a united Europe.
But, again, this can only happen if all sides finally and honestly
acknowledge the full extent of the problems created by this
anomalous situation and understand exactly why and how we got here.
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