China Promised Hong Kong One Country, Two Systems
But the reality looks much different
How is the CCP’s broken promise
Affecting Hong Kong’s Economy?
Welcome back to China Uncensored, I'm Chris Chappell.
Joining me today is Edward Chin,
Hong Kong activist, hedge fund manager,
and founder of 2047 Hong Kong Monitor.
Thanks for joining me Ed.
Chris it's good to see you in less than 100 days, I think?
Less than 100 days or about.
Well, so these protests have been going on for a long time now,
over 100 days.
How has that affected the economy of Hong Kong?
Some of the retail businesses definitely have suffered,
but a lot of people are sympathetic about the current situation
because almost it's like the last fight for Hong Kong's core values,
freedom of speech, freedom of press,
and freedom to move around Hong Kong even.
Seems like Hong Kong is turning into more like a semi police state.
It's something I don't want to see as a business person.
Yeah.
I mean you've seen police and protestors clashing in malls,
that's definitely not good for businesses.
No, it's not, I have seen students, very young people,
very young age, 12, 13 years old even,
and very senior people, senior in terms of age.
They come out in unison to defend what they think.
And it's not just young people protesting.
There's been lawyer protest, doctor protest.
This is really in all level of society.
I'm touched honestly,
like the medical profession,
they do come out,
not just the paramedics.
I have seen one fifth year medical school student
name remain anonymous.
He would put on full gear.
At first, he was just a paramedic.
But when police which is driven by money because of the over pay,
you were paid like one and a half,
two times pay as a policeman to control the situation so to speak.
When you fire so many tear gas canisters towards demonstrators,
the young doctors to be, they would gear up now.
I've seen them like dressed as more the Batmans,
The Avengers so to speak, right,
to defend that this is almost like the last fight they believe in
because they were born like in the '90s or they are millennials.
So they really believe like this is their Hong Kong, they call it home.
They might not have a memory of the colonial days like us
because we benefited from the economic uprising from 30 years ago.
They don't see that same type of a scenario,
but that they could only see like Hong Kong as a more polarization.
So that's why they came out.
And even the older generation,
they come out and support.
Now, definitely it's extremes.
You could see the big real estate developers who are,
some of them are members of the National People Congress
or Political Consultative Conference.
Which is a mainland Chinese organization?
Yeah.
Right.
So they have to kowtow,
the big developers have to kowtow and say condemn everyone.
They would say put up newspaper ads
and condemn the demonstrators from causing so called trouble.
And part of the reason housing prices are so high is
because of an influx of rich mainland Chinese people, correct?
Yeah.
The housing prices have been up a lot
in over the last few decades.
But even with the protests going on in the last 100 days or so,
people are concerned.
But it's not dropping like a rock.
There are still a lot of China money supporting the real estate,
but then the Hong Kong tycoons,
they are also afraid that they will be replaced
by the mainland princelings.
So, they're extracting even the last penny
from the normal Hong Kong people.
That's something we wouldn't want to see.
So in unity for the first time,
the young professionals,
those people who are retiring,
the so called upper middle class too
are joining this so called movement.
It's beyond the extradition deal now,
it's like the last fight for Hong Kong.
Hong Kong people most of them,
I would say 99.999% are not asking for Hong Kong's independence.
They're fighting for at least the Deng Xiaoping motto,
which is that two systems has to remain intact.
We don't have that now.
The Hong Kong government has said the protests
are about economic inequality or livelihood issues.
Do you think that's true?
I think that's part of the problem definitely.
Because 20 years ago,
you could see like a young accountant who is making
10,000 Hong Kong per month,
20 years later, he's still making 10,000 per month.
I would think if we want some more radical changes
like the Hong Kong government should like the Singapore model
build something like for young family at least have
four to 500 square feet of living space.
I mean you cannot have like 150 square feet net
having like a four person household living in that
so called like chunckated home.
It's not as inhumane honestly,
you are talking about Hong Kong is so rich.
It's also so polarized.
And also for instance,
the minimum monthly salary for university graduates,
it cannot be like 10,000 forever over the last 25 years.
It has to be some minimum standard just like a minimum wage,
let's say 20,000, 21, 22,000 honky make the society more fair.
So far, a lot of people when they come out,
it's also they don't see a future.
The civil human rights front,
one of the major organizers of the protest
has accused Beijing of economic imperialism.
Has becoming a part of China helped the Hong Kong economy?
Now, last time, Chris, when you were in Hong Kong,
we already talk about liquid assets moving overseas to Singapore,
Jersey Channel Island.
I have not seen this trend from stopping.
To be honest a lot of-
So money is still going out of Hong Kong.
Of course.
People won't think twice about the so-called,
right now is jurisdiction risks,
people have to think about it.
Now with the human rights and democracy act,
that could be a reality in the US.
They could penalize Hong Kong or Beijing government people
from entering the US or freezing their assets.
Would they have some retaliation to the pro-democracy people too?
And also those 2 million people who come out to the streets
who are fighting for their own freedoms.
I don't know.
That's something called a backup plan
or people have to think about logically if Hong Kong is under duress.
First of all, Beijing could retaliate by freezing
some of the activism assets too.
Liquid assets is very important.
I think anyone with one million Hong Kong,
which is 150,000 US, they could think,
"Hey, if I opened a premier account in one of the global banks,"
they want to offshore maybe 60% of the assets overseas,
like a six four allocation.
Not in remembrance of the Tiananmen 64,
but the 64 allocation could be wise.
Because money movement,
you can do it quite easily.
Now I know a lot of Hong Kong companies like Cathay Pacific
have come under pressure from the Chinese Communist Party
to come out against the protesters.
Do you think more Hong Kong companies
will face that kind of pressure?
Even like BNP Paribas, which is a fringe bank,
which is quite controversial.
I think one of the activists lawyer, Jason Eng, resigned abruptly,
just I think two weeks ago because of his comments on his Facebook.
Now a lot of Hong Kong people are singing a song called
May Glory be to Hong Kong.
I don't know whether you listened to it on YouTube.
We've heard it there.
Yeah.
And then there were some mainland tourists
lash protesters were raiding IFC,
which is a high end shopping mall at the financial center.
Like your Twin Towers, the equivalent.
And then Jason was commenting something
about the mainland protesters,
and then someone saw that and then has it circulated in Waco,
and then he went into some trouble and then he resigned.
Or he is no longer with the BMP.
Is unprecedented.
This is what I call white terror.
Not the word Caucasian white, but terror in general.
We like to use that term white terror,
has nothing to do with that race.
Okay, well how would you define white terror?
It's horror show.
I mean it's like intimidation.
It's like what happened to me 10 months ago.
January 1st when I write a protest saying President Xi Jingping,
please release the two Canadians,
the whole world was watching.
So even before I come out, they visited my office
and say I detained an interviewee in my office.
And no one comes in for an interview on January 1st.
So, a lot of these weird things do happen because the phones,
I think a lot of us, our phones are tapped.
So Hong Kong is becoming more and more like as Jin Jen situation
with a lot of AI lamps, monitoring facial recognition,
credit rating system in 2020.
So, a lot of things are slowly integrated into the Chinese way.
That makes me worry because I don't see the two systems as too valid now.
That's why people still have to come out and fight and to speak up.
Well are white collar professionals or any companies
doing anything to support the protesters?
As individuals.
A lot of them, a lot of them they do come out,
but not at a corporate level.
You will be penalized.
Le Cafe was penalized, I think HSBC,
they replaced some of the senior executives.
And then I mentioned the BMP case,
and then preferably they will come out as individuals and support.
Sometimes anonymous.
Sometimes if they go out,
they have to put on a mask.
Unfortunately, this is Hong Kong now.
Yeah.
So two credit rating agencies, Moody's and Fitch,
have changed the outlook of Hong Kong to negative recently.
Why is that?
Because they think the protests could be prolonged
and also the retail definitely has suffered.
Now I have a friend who is at first more like Blue Ribbon,
which is more like pro-Beijing,
but now is more sympathetic towards the protesters
because his son is around that age too.
So he has a retail chain with 15 stores.
I won't mention what type of clothing
because otherwise you would know who he is.
So of course the sales got affected.
The sales drop 30, 40%, but at first five years ago,
he blamed the Umbrella Movement that Professor Benny Tai initiated
and to finance a banking group that support Occupy Central,
also support Benny Tai's movement.
He was fiercely against it.
But now he becomes more sympathetic
because he knows that his son is around that age too.
He doesn't see his son's upward mobility as a Hong Kong-er.
So even his SEO suffer.
He negotiated with the landlord,
which is really in control of Hong Kong's economy.
So do you think if one country,
two systems begins to become eroded or disappears,
that will be good or bad for the economy of Hong Kong?
Honestly, the two systems doesn't exist anymore.
Now take a look at Macau right now, you have Article 23,
you cannot have a protest.
People are very calm and so called orderly.
You only got one voice.
But Hong Kong, it's a quite multicultural before
and Hong Kong has been an international city.
But this will become an international city with a lot of constraints.
Now we don't have a curfew yet.
The government hinted that if things so got out of control,
we could have curfews.
They would put up like ...
but we have a mini curfew going on right now.
And then the police can do searches on people anytime,
and then they talk about this a retractable baton
could be carried around.
There's a lot of debate on this so called policeman
making excessive money I alluded to earlier,
they could immigrate to Taiwan
because the time of immigration investment scheme
is only million NT dollars.
And so with one and a half years of work
with a lot of overtime pay,
they could immigrate to another country
by bashing of people,
which is sad.
I mean of course I say it half-jokingly now,
but actually is a very bad thing for Hong Kong people
fighting Hong Kong people.
But this is how the CCP wants to play it.
So the US has the Hong Kong policy act of 1992
which basically as far as trade relations
go treats Hong Kong as something different
and separate from mainland China.
Now Congress is talking about passing
the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act,
which would have the US government review
whether or not there's reason to maintain that difference.
What would happen to the Hong Kong economy
if the US treats Hong Kong the same as mainland China?
That in fact remains to be seen,
but talk about the human rights and democracy at first.
I think it's a good deterrent to be honest
because people like Carrie Lam, her husband got a UK passport,
same as her son.
But some of the tycoons who are so pro-Beijing,
the wife is still like an American
and then the kids all have US bank accounts
or companies in the US.
They have to think twice when you try to so called
stabilize things in Hong Kong,
they have to think about the consequences
when you try to like create so much social unrest.
I don't see if honestly when you have a rally,
when you don't have police, everything is so orderly.
Sudden, when you have like 5,000 policemen
came out like a riot police
and then these speedy dragons
and then fiercely firing the tear gas and then rubber bullets.
Suddenly you know the Hong Kong society goes crazy.
Now go back to the human rights and democracy act.
I think if the Congress pauses it,
I think it would be a good deterrent for the Hong Kong government
to think twice about the evil deeds they try to implement.
They have to think very carefully.
So I mean I don't know too well about the politicians in the US,
but I think Marco Rubio and Nancy Pelosi,
they are doing a great job by helping Hong Kong.
I don't want to talk about Trump,
it's a different story.
People have a love and hate on President Trump,
but definitely your Congressman has been helping Hong Kong I think.
Thank you for that.
Yeah.
It's become a bipartisan issue, which is a miracle in this day and age in the US.
Yeah.
It is a miracle to see the US gets so united on Hong Kong's issues.
All right.
Thank you very much for joining me today, Ed.
I hope I don't see you in not too distant future.
Yeah.
Under better circumstances.
Yes, of course.
Yeah.
Thank you so much.