Let's continue finding out everything Tesla has to say about the future of the company.
Tesla is asked about the pricing strategy
for FSD, and how they see it evolving.
Elon says they will increase the price of FSD sometime later this year, probably just
before they go wide beta.
Elon thinks that it makes sense to increase the price of FSD when this is rolled out to
everyone, I assume he means just in the US.
Ok just to point out, we have been given so much incredible information and data on cells,
batteries, vehicles, production, refining, mining, minerals, and more, so much, I really
think this will keep me going until the shareholder meeting, which is actually not too far away
now.
But now Elon is about to spill some beans on FSD as well.
You just have to listen carefully to just about every sentence.
Anyway, Elon is saying that the price will increase, but says the value of FSD is extremely
high, and not well understood by most people.
Of course we often discuss the economics of FSD, down to the end user along with how it
can impact cities or nations.
We are well aware of it's future and potential, and of the realization that it's not if, but
when, and that window of error for the when is diminishing continually, implying it seems
like it's really going to happen sometime soon.
In fact Elon goes on to say after how cheap FSD is, that price is based on the assumption
that it will materialize, but then Elon says in a deadpan tone, "of which it will".
He certainly sounds very confident on FSD these days, which must be a good sign.
Elon is aware of how often he has given timelines for many products, but FSD is likely the most
notorious.
However, despite such a reputation, Elon continues to express his thoughts that FSD will be complete
this year, even in light of knowing there will be ridicule if he doesn't achieve it.
He is still confident enough to state it will be ready soon, and really soon, this year.
Even if FSD was 2 years away, and Elon was saying it will be ready in 2 years, then that
would also be amazing.
But under 6 months, that's what he is telling us.
And wow, how valuable has that got to be?
I think it will add a trillion to the stock price.
Although even if Tesla does achieve it, and Elon says we have reached FSD feature complete,
safer than an average human, then were is the proof?
Perhaps the street will still be somewhat dubious about it.
Maybe it needs to be authorized by NHTSA or something to give people full validation that
Tesla have achieved what Elon said they would.
But are we being silly here?
Tesla is going to add about $1000 to the stock price when FSD is approved.
He is highly confident it will be in the next 6 months.
Is it a little tempting to sell our houses and put it all into LEAPS?
This is one serious opportunity to miss, shoot for the stars for a massive, massive return
that would more than set you life.
And not even over 6 months, but perhaps as far as 2 years out.
Shoot for the FSD stars, but if we miss, then what?
We are ruined for life?
No, when you shoot for the stars and miss, you might still hit the moon, which is likely
4680 ramp up.
Yea, there is that too.
Really, we could see Tesla at $3,000 early as next year, if they hit the 100 GWh run
rate for 4680s and FSD.
These are Tesla's biggest 2 products, and they aren't finshed yet.
Another question following up Zach and Elon's
response to Tesla's demand related to the macro environment, with Elon and Zach saying
that they hadn't noticed much difference in demand, subject to the economy.
The question also brings up lead times have reduced slightly in China and US, as that
is the only visibility Tesla investors have.
And are they expecting decrease in demand due to the price rises perhaps.
Elon just repeats again, Tesla does not have a demand problem they have production problem.
Elon says we're trying to make the backlog lower, not longer.
Elon compares it going to a restaurant and ordering your burger, and having to wait 3
hours for it, that's annoying, you want your burger right away.
Same with the car.
Tesla want the lead times to reduce.
People will also pay more for something to have it earlier.
Tesla see daily orders from around the world, Elon says, it is a little like a mood barometer,
Elon says consumer sentiment is all over the map, and things can vary a great deal from
one day to the next, so one cannot read into it too much.
But there is so much excess demand for Tesla, that the economy doesn't simply seem to be
an issue for Tesla.
Elon says though, it may be an issue for others.
Elon is asked if can comment on his personal
role in the company, along with time spent and commitment with the company.
Elon replies, saying he is committed to the long term, and will continue to work at Tesla
for as long as he can usefully advance the course of sustainability and autonomy.
Which Elon has said in the past, or similar, just that he will stay with Tesla whilst he
can continue to be useful.
Which as shareholders, or at least most of us shareholders, do appreciate very much.
Having Elon behind the wheel is obviously important.
I get comments saying that Elon is bored, and has moved on.
This is not the case, he is about to finally pull off his major break-throughs FSD and
4680 volume production.
This is likely the most exciting time ever for him in Tesla.
I am sure the vast majority of us would be hugely disappointed if he stepped down.
We want to see this mission have every best chance it has, and I believe the best chance
is with Elon steering the ship.
Elon was asked about their current AI, and
he basically says wait for AI day, obviously.
But he also says that they are further ahead, than most people think.
Which is a theory I had.
People think FSD beta is as good as are with FSD is, to an extent.
Any issues they see with FSD beta, they immediately think that it's a flaw with FSD.
But we don't know what FSD beta is really doing.
Just think for a second, what do Tesla want to achieve from FSD beta?
Was their aim to roll out their latest version for their best drivers, for them to discover
at what level Tesla's FSD and AI really is at?
Or is it designed to test the FSD, exactly how Tesla want it tested, and to get the actual
feedback they really need.
For example, when someone has to intervene because the car was going to hit a road cone
or something, well this could be Tesla just trying to refine the sensitivity.
Tesla then learn, ok, we still have to be a little bit more sensitive there.
There is a compromise between safety and speed.
If Tesla thinks a car is about to pull out in front of you, then the Tesla may slow down,
just in case it does pull out.
But if you reduce the sensitivity, then perhaps Tesla will not slow down so much, and act
closer to a human driver.
I mean I am sure Tesla could have FSD now, and drive safer than a human, but perhaps
the journey might take twice as long.
It is Tesla's job to refine the FSD, and perhaps increase the aggressiveness of the driving
somewhat, to be more like a human driver.
Whilst this is the case then all beta testers will experience interventions, just so Tesla
can learn.
It is also possible, that not everyone has the same FSD Beta.
If there are over 100,000 drivers, then perhaps Tesla have split the FSD for a/b testing,
or multivariate testing.
Then after viewing perhaps half a dozen different FSD Beta types, Tesla are able to see which
versions are doing better in different areas.
Perhaps one worked better on highways, another with left turns, etc.
But even if none of that is the case, it's moot, as it could be the case, or there could
be many other reasons as to why Tesla's FSD Beta version is not the latest and greatest
version of FSD for customers.
In other words, just because you have been dissapointed in your FSD beta, it doesn't
mean you necessarily have an accurate overall view as to where they are with the technology.
And Elon has even talked about how he drives a completely difference alpha version of FSD
too.
Anyway, I think we have a lot to discover and look forward to in regards to this when
AI Day comes.
Elon seems so confident in FSD being achieved.
But also it being achieved this year.
The CEO of the company is saying, I am highly confident that as early as sometime this year,
we will create software that will literally make trillions of dollars a year, and our
company valuation isn't even one trillion.