*intro plays*
Before I go onto the scenario,
Let me explain why I put the word 'won'
in quotation marks.
The Vietnam War wasn't a purely American war, even though the US involved itself heavily in the 1960's and 70's.
The conflict itself had been raging ever since the end of World War 2
once Vietnam declared its independence from France.
The conflict in Vietnam can only be described
as two phases: half revolution for independence and half civil war.
The first part was waged against colonization by France and Japan.
and then the second between the split North and South.
The second phase was when the Americans became involved
and then the conflict which was truly more than just communists vs non communists
That's why this title is misleading somewhat
since America would not have won the Vietnam war,
but it would have been a South Vietnamese victory with American support.
So the scenario is technically "What if the South Vietnamese won their Civil War
and Americans gained more Influence in Indochina?"
But that's not a very appealing title.
Now that we've got that figured out, onto the scenario.
Say that it's the 1960's and the United States has sent troops into Vietnam.
America is fully supporting the South Vietnamese government and has dedicated ground troops to fight the Viet Công and NVA.
How would the US be able to win this intervention against the communist North and be able to stop the spread of communism?
Well, the best solution to a quick end of the North's expansion would be a full invasion of North Vietnam.
Yet this is impossible as any invasion of a communist nation would automatically put America in a World War 3 situation with the USSR and China.
The US couldn't just bomb the North into submission as history shows we did this many times in Vietnam,
and they simply changed routes or used simpler technology to achieve their goals.
The only way to win the war was a full military invasion of the North.
Ground troops, the whole shebang.
This video will have two scenarios:
1 where there is no threat of retaliation
from the USSR and China had America fully invaded North Vietnam.
The second where America is able to build a stable government in Saigon and is able to push back Northern aggressions to the point where the NVA and Viet Công
could no longer fight back.
One:
For some reason, the USSR and Chinese simply don't care about North Vietnam,
and so the US is able to invade.
American troops quickly storm into Hanoi,
overthrow the communist government, and set up a pro American government.
What would the world and Vietnam look like, had America done that?
Well, for one, Vietnam would have been united under American influence.
The South government would have control over the North and South, American investors and contractors would come and do trade with the recently invaded North,
US media would declare the Vietnam War a massive success and would use it to showcase American firepower.
The main threat to the US and the newly united Vietnam would be a potential Chinese invasion of the North
had China changed their minds about the US occupation.
The US secretly plans for all options including this Chinese retaliation.
More resources are sent into the North and military utilities are exchanged from the South
to quell any rebellion among communist Vietnamese.
This communist rebellion among the northern Vietnamese would be a major threat to the American occupation.
Communism was very popular among the rural villages and so the countryside could've harbored rebellions against the Americans.
Many Vietnamese would liken the invading Americans
to the French and would be very resentful of Westerners
overthrowing their government.
Communism, for the Vietnamese, was a united front against colonialism,
which is why Ho Chi Minh himself became a communist.
For the Vietnamese, communism was not holy because of anti-capitalist beliefs,
but the simply anti colonial ideas expressed by communists.
With this, I am assuming there will be a new resurgence in communism.
America would have to deal with a communist rebellion.
This rebellion would probably be beaten back by American firepower and resentment would still exist.
This will only be temporary;
eventually after years of occupation,
probably until the mid 1970's,
the Americans withdraw troops from Vietnam.
This is like our timeline's Vietnamization,
but instead of war,
we would be bringing in more Vietnamese political power.
in this scenario, Vietnam would have Western influence like that of Japan or South Korea.
It's government would have ties with the Americans,
and its economy would be capitalist.
Whether or not this nation would prosper is up to your own opinion.
The second scenario is the Americans completely render the North Vietnamese army useless
and neutralize any communist forces.
This could be a massive bombing campaign and a successful shutoff of the Ho Chi Minh trail,
no matter how unlikely this would be.
After this, America dedicates more resources into putting in a stable government in South Vietnam
and stays invested in the region into our present day, like Korea.
North Vietnam slowly loses the gradual support
from China as the Chinese build relations with Americans, and the country becomes more isolated.
However, much like China's relation with North Korea,
the Chinese would sometimes back the Hanoi government against the US.
North Vietnam's army is rendered useless
and is unable to put up a full scale assault on the South.
The Viet Công is destroyed and any form of guerilla war is ineffective against the better-trained South Vietnamese forces.
If anything, the scenario would play out like in Korea:
South Vietnam could gradually reform itself, becoming more and more democratic, with help from the West,
and boosting its economy.
But this is only an optimistic view.
It could easily stay a dictatorship
as it did in our timeline.
Today, North Vietnam and South Vietnam are still separated and the Vietnamese people wish for unification.
The North is still back by China and the South by the West.
However, relations have normalized and no larger power really wishes to jeopardize relations.
Maybe North Vietnam would reflect the Vietnam today,
or would it devolve into a crazed North Korea dictatorship?
I'll leave you to decide.
These two scenarios were one of the most accurate ways I see the US could have at least had a victory in Vietnam.
How do you think, if at all, the situation would have been had the Americans 'won' the war in Vietnam?
Like us on Facebook, subscribe if you have not done so. This is Cody from the AlternateHistory Hub.