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Welcome to the Bureau of Meteorology's Northern Australia severe weather season long range
forecast for the wet season of 2022-2023 in Northern Australia the wet season is
the peak season for heat waves, flooding, severe thunderstorms and tropical cyclones,
while bushfires can also be a major risk in southern areas. In the months ahead,
Northern Australia can expect the risk of prolonged heat waves, severe thunderstorms,
bushfire risk to remain above average for parts of Central Australia, central WA and
south-west Queensland, increased chance of more tropical cyclones and tropical lows,
an increased risk of flooding linked to tropical systems, with some coastal flooding also likely.
The La Nina event in the tropical Pacific Ocean has brought increased rainfall to the east and is
typically associated with above average rainfall across Northern Australia over the wet season.
La Nina may start to ease in early 2023. Other important drivers for the tropics include the
Madden Julian Oscillation or MJO. The MJO brings bursts of heavy monsoonal rainfall at times during
the wet season. Sea temperatures across the northern tropics and Coral Sea are much warmer
than normal at the moment and may increase the amount of rain and moisture in weather systems.
Longer term Northern Australia has been receiving more of its rain from short and
intense rainfall events. Australia's climate has also warmed by over 1.4 degrees centigrade
over the past century, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. So,
let's take a closer look at Northern Australia's long-range forecast for the severe weather season.
We're now in tropical cyclone season. The Australian region is likely to experience
an above average number of tropical systems, so northern communities should be prepared.
Tropical Cyclones and tropical lows are some of the most dangerous weather events in Australia.
They can bring destructive winds, heavy rainfall, flooding and storm surges. Remember, even cyclones
that don't make landfall can still cause damage. This includes rainfall leading to flooding,
destructive winds, storm surges and large waves. In every season since tropical cyclone records
began in 1970, Australia has had at least one tropical cyclone crossing the coast. People right
across Northern Australia should be prepared for the cyclone season and follow our tropical cyclone
watch and warning advice on the Bureau's website or the Bureau weather app. [Music]
Far Northern Australia has been experiencing heat waves over recent months,
with some areas of the Top End and Cape York recording their warmest spring on record.
Heat waves are predicted to continue across the tropical north. Nights are expected to be much
warmer than normal across the north over the wet season. Warm nights after hot days give
our bodies little chance to cool down, so heat stress becomes a real health risk. We now issue
heatwave warnings direct to the community through our website and the Bureau weather app. [Music]
During the wet season fire risk in the far north is much lower than during the dry season
but the outlook from Australian fire agencies shows above normal fire potential in southern
parts of the NT, WA and Queensland. This is partly due to lots of extra growth from good
rains in 2022. This growth turns to fuel for fires when it dries out. Even short periods of
hot and windy weather will raise the fire risk, so have your bushfire plans ready.
Tropical lows can bring heavy rainfall over land. Soils are saturated across parts of
Northern Australia so they can't soak up much more rainfall. This means there's an increased
risk of flooding. Some coastal flooding is likely around the highest tides of the year which are
expected around the 20th of February on northern Queensland coasts including the Torres Strait.
Severe thunderstorms can cause dangerous conditions, including heavy rain,
which can lead to flash flooding, large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes.
The combination of humidity and warm weather means thunderstorms are most likely at this time of year
in Northern Australia. Severe thunderstorms can develop quickly and with little warning, so being
prepared before a severe thunderstorm can help keep you and your property safe. It's important
to know your weather and know your risk to ensure that you're ready to act and stay safe. Follow all
advice from your local emergency services on what to do before, during, and after severe weather.
Stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings on the Bureau's website or the Bureau
weather app. People traveling can update their location and enable notifications on the app to
ensure that you get the warning information you need when it matters most. Please, stay safe.