When to Buy Gold // seasonal investing patterns // seasonality trading strategy David Moadel
welcome to looking at the markets with David Modell wanted to talk about gold
when's a good time to buy gold well I'm not talking about day trading today I'm
talking about buying and holding some gold maybe for a swing trade a few
months something like that or perhaps even for long term because even if
you're gonna hold gold for years you still want to get in at the right time
at a good price you want to buy at a lower price and you want to buy at a
time when you expect it to go up no matter what your whole time is well
let's talk about that I'm gonna put some links in the description of this video
here's one it's from equity o'clock calm I want to give them credit and it's a
pretty cool website they have a lot of seasonality charts here and here is a
seasonality chart for gold or gold futures which reflects gold prices and
notice that at the toward the end of the year
gold tends to go up we see that alright and notice in the beginning of the year
as well so what months are best if you're going to go buy seasonality well
notice that September is fantastic in terms of seasonality for gold or at
least gold futures prices and also January look at that big big move in
January and the timeframe here is for 20 years so this is a pretty big range here
alright so it looks like September and January are great months and then if we
go over to and I'll put this link in the description of the video as well this is
from Casey research calm I like these guys as well they have good charts here
and look again September and January are really fantastic and this is average
gold performance since 1975 this is a little bit older of a chart but still
it's over a long period of time and it still reflects monthly seasonality
patterns or trends and we see September and January are really great when we
look at this one we see some other great months as well
looks like November is really strong looks like February might be really
strong but the one or two I should say that they both have in common are
September and January they both agree on that one
now why September and January well there are a number of theories behind that I
think the strongest one that I've seen is that there's a lot of fear
surrounding October let me think about it think about the stock market crashes
that occurred in October of 1929 October in 2008 October of 1987 it's burned into
people's memories especially if they've been investing for a long time that
October can have a lot of problems in the stock market in the the Dow and the
S&P and so on and so that's one possible reason that people load up on gold
perhaps as a protective or hedging measure in September in anticipation of
October and also February is known as a weak month
seasonally speaking for the stock market for the Dow the SP and so on and so that
could account for why people Lo and people and or institutions load up on
gold in January perhaps they're anticipating a week February just like
perhaps they load up on gold in September in anticipation of a week
October how much truth there is to that I don't know for sure but that seems to
me at least right now as a possible explanation and we we have September
coming up very soon that's why I'm putting this video out now but no matter
when you're watching this these are seasonal patterns to think about if
you're going to get into gold and I certainly have no problem with people
purchasing precious metals for a hedge against a long equities portfolio I
don't think it's a bad idea at all of course you have to make your own
decision about these things but if you're going to do it why not do it at
the right time and while I'm making this video September's coming up very soon
and so that's something to think about when you look at these charts okay
so I want to give thanks to equity clock comm and Casey research comm links are
in the description of this video and if you'd like some help putting together a
trading or investing plan my name is David Modell you can email me anytime at
David Modell at gmail.com hey if you like this video if it made you think if
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leave comments what do you think about Gould do you think it's a good way an
effective way to hedge your portfolio and is there a time that you like to buy
it are you a stacker of gold or silver or
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and I'll talk to you again soon