SPEAKER 1: I want to pick up on one of the points that came up here
called a purchase price.
So while I'm quite convinced now that electric workers are
a new technology forward for us, if I go to the shop now,
I see that the purchase price is still higher.
So my question for all of you next is, when will I
see the purchase price of electric cars become equal to or even lower
than a gasoline car in the future?
And how can technology policy and business help in doing that?
SPEAKER 2: It will very soon.
I am expecting around 2025, the purchase price cheaper
than the classical car, combustion engine car, and maybe even sooner.
And the reason for that is the development of the technology.
In fact, the biggest part of the price of the car is the battery price.
And we saw the last five years, a huge dive in the battery price.
Just five years ago, it was 1 kilowatt hour of battery almost $1,000.
Now, we are at a level of 200.
And it's still going down with the mass production,
with the new technology developments, and with the wide spread
of electric vehicles.
There is also another driver, which is, of course,
the mass production of all parts, interchangeability,
an important factor, but also, advances in power electronics
and energy conversion, which will push the price down further to the lower
prices.
So I expect that this will be, by 2025, really cheaper car
than combustion engine car.
SPEAKER 3: Yes, I agree here totally with Professor Bauer.
It's all about economies by a lack of scale, you could say.
It's a new technology.
If you look at the production numbers, they're sometimes one offs,
and in many, many cases now, it's small series.
But the whole supply chain has to come to life.
And economies of scale will drive down not only the batteries,
but also the whole production of the electric vehicle.
However, the statement that the sticker price is higher is even not true today.
Because if you look at the Tesla Model S, it's mentioned before,
and you compare it with a Maserati with the same acceleration,
and the same looks, and the same quality,
the Maserati is more expensive than the Tesla Model S to buy.
Also, the other thing, what will change it for the private owner,
because we should admit that in the Netherlands, the EV private
didn't take off yet.
Even in the second hand market, it doesn't sell.
Because there were hardly no incentives.
So those buyers were very pure, looking at what do I get for the money.
And now, the last years, you see that a private lease is coming up.
And you can private lease, for instance, a Nissan LEAF
already for below 400 euro.
And if you look at that price, which is, in fact, the total cost of ownership
price, but then in the lease contract, it's cheaper than the competition.
And that's because the energy is included.
So the electricity and the fast charging is included.
So it's already cheap.
So I think 2022 is certainly have to break even,
but already when you look very closely and think about it, it's already there.
SPEAKER 1: OK, that's very promising for the future.
SPEAKER 4: It is very promising, but I do not
think that the average car buyer is very concerned about
whether to choose the Tesla Model S or a Maserati.
SPEAKER 3: No.
SPEAKER 4: I think we are talking about when are electric cars really
the cheapest alternative, the best alternative in the mass car market.
OK, this moment is certainly going to come.
I think it's going to come pretty soon.
But I don't have a crystal ball, and neither
do policymakers have a crystal ball.
It is evident, though, that governments around the world
have been very active to make electric mobility competitive.
The sooner, the better.
Before they started incentivizing car owners with subsidies
and fiscal stimuli, governments have been investing a lot in research,
and development, and demonstration programs
to speed up the introduction of electric vehicles in the market.
And now it is all about stimulating the demand side of the market,
to make it really happen.
For governments, what is a complicating factor
is that there are more interests at stake than just stimulating
electric cars for air quality reasons, or energy transition
reasons, or climate policy reasons.
There is also a thing such as economic policy, which
includes industrial policy, and government also
has to protect established industrial interests.
And we have to make sure that the established industry, if countries
have an extensive car manufacturing industry,
is not just evaporating without an alternative
to replace the jobs getting lost.
And I think we are now at a point where we
are quite confident that electric mobility is
going to break through in the market quite soon, in the near future.
But governments and their national industrial champions
are now competing for the future electric vehicle market,
in terms of technology leadership and in terms of manufacturing facilities.
And that is mainly because of employment opportunities involved.
One of the signals here is, for instance, Maros Sefcovic,
one of the vice presidents of the European Commission, in October 2017,
last October, he announced that Europe is
going to make billions of euros available to support
the establishment of large scale battery manufacturing facilities in Europe.
And that is with the aim to create 4 to 5 million new jobs.
SPEAKER 2: Margot mentioned a very important point,
and it is automated vehicle driving automated way.
And this will also, from technology point of view,
completely change the usage of the vehicle.
You can imagine you are coming home, getting out of the car, which
is driving automatically.
The car itself goes to the charging spot somewhere nearby or maybe
even further away, charging itself, and stays again ready when you need it.
So all these worries about the range anxiety, about the charging rate
and taking cables, they will be removed by contactless
charging by the automated driving.
So we are heading to a completely new landscape
of the driving, which we have to really now try
to understand and estimate the effect of it.
But this will also give a huge stimulus to the people
to purchase an electric vehicle.
And this is something which is technology driven, in fact.
SPEAKER 1: So if I conclude some of the observations from this discussion,
I can make full conclusions.
The first is that the total cost of ownership of electric vehicles
is already lower than conventional gasoline vehicles.
So that's already a win situation for electric mobility.
In terms of buying price of electric vehicles,
you see already, for example, the luxury segment,
that electric vehicles are already cheaper than conventional vehicles.
While in the mass market segment, you still
have the purchase price of electric vehicles being higher.
And this is where the role of governments
come in, where they provide subsidies and other methodologies
to encourage people in the mass market segment to buy electric vehicles.
However, electric vehicles and the policies
are not able to ensure the adoption in the long term.
Because if you remove a policy, that the buying effect on electric vehicles
is reduced.