and for more dr. Koo Myung Hyun and research fellow from the asan Institute
for Policy Studies joins us in the studio today welcome to the program
my pleasure so there's just about a week left before the Kim Trump summit and
eyes are on how the joint statement will shape up and what sort of deals it will
contain now as we heard in the previous report CNN reported that the two sides
are seriously considering exchanging liaison officers how far do you think
the negotiations have taken place based on this report and would this be a first
step to establishing formal diplomatic ties between the two well oftentimes
establishing relations office I suffer step towards a normalization of
relations with in between United States and another country and I think that
took two countries here are taking the formal steps towards normalization but
we had to take into account the fact that so there's a little bit of a
mismatch between the negotiation position between North Korea and the
United States from what we have heard so far from the information that we have
gathered North Korea what we really want from the United States is economic
concessions essentially sanctions relief so they pull assign law priority when it
comes to the political symbols such as license office on the other hand the
United States skeptical about the possibility of a complete localization
of North Korea and as a venerable decision to upgrade the relations with
North Korea very quickly so instead of offering a sanctions relief United
States is putting on the table for the possibility of upgrading down I mean
start taking the prostitutes normalization by offering to establish
relations office in North Korea so this is actually indicates to me that the two
countries upstairs have some gap in their positions towards denuclearization
and the United States might want to offer this to North Korea but we don't
know yet whether North Korea will take it yeah so it seemed more symbolic
now under the 1994 agreed framework better known as the Geneva agreement
based on where it was signed North Korea and the u.s. had a group there to open
liaison offices that would later develop into
ambassadorial level which the plan fell through do you think the second summit
will be an opportune moment to get these talks or get these plans going again
clearly the establishment of liaison offices has become a form of leverage or
Nakano offer to speed up the democratization negotiations so it's
clear that the US side is making this query serious offered on to North Korea
so should North Korea take the I mean given the background of slow progress
not in acquisition a process I'll say that US is going to propose having a
small license of his system or large distance office depending I mean in a
way the size of the license office to be established in Pyongyang could be
indicative of how successful the negotiations are going to be between the
two countries if the US are going to establish a big listen surface with
multiple staffers that will indicate that the United States is a very
optimistic about the eventual increases in North Korea are going to use the
resource office as the basis to accreditor to an ambassador ambassador
see down the road but then if US offers a small distance surface such as the one
that they could put in a suicide office along with within the Swedish embassy
compound also in having offered the consular service to American citizens in
North Korea then that would indicate the u.s. still really skeptical about the
successful negotiation to the organization so I think obviously
remains to be seen so shifting gears to the summit itself
we still don't know where the summit venue will be held or at which hotels
leaders will be staying now a high possibility for the summit venue is the
Vietnam National Convention Center where the 2010 ASEAN summit was held and
another option that's being speculated is the Hanoi Opera House which was built
during the French colonial era what significance do these two venues have
well there's not really political significance attached these venues per
se but it's all about the location and a distance between the hotel and the
conference venue for respective leaders the convention center nice apparently
lies closer to the hotel the present room is going to stay in an away and
opera house stays actually that is the opposite case Opera House actually is a
closer to the hotel that Kim jong-un is expected to stay so I think that both
sides are little bit arguing over no protocol issues I think are they want
our respective leaders to I mean their own respective leaders to stay closer to
the conference venue which makes the whole thing much simpler for both of
them so something will still have to wait for North Korean leader Kim
jong-un's de-facto chief of staff kim ki-chun son is stepping up preparations
in Vietnam there's reports that he's viewing some possible sites that Kim can
visit so as he is a key official in charge of protocol a lot of attention is
on where he visits because Kim jong-un could actually potentially visit these
sites and instead of flying straight to Hanoi the official went via Kong Jo and
while in Hanoi he also visit that the Vietnamese border with China
now given that Kim Jong and Kim jong-un's father Kim jong-il also made a
visit to Punisher back in 2006 do you think there would be a potential visit
by Kim jong-un himself given that the city is known for reform and economic
development well clearly Kim jong-un is on a drive to give up this perception
that the North Korea's contain back on a major economy form an opening so in that
sense the visiting Guangzhou is very symbolic step and simply location to
conduct the kind of message to the rest of the world but it doesn't mean that
just because his chief of staff mr. Alonso and the volar between them
and China that Kim jong-un is also going to take that route on the way to Hanoi
it's just one of the many options that probably North Korea is entertaining at
the moment so a lot of things remain under the wraps a lot of speculation
what do you think is the likeliness of Kim jong-un traveling to Vietnam through
a land route well I think that little bit I mean I really be surprised if kim
giman is going to take the land route from North Korea all the way down to
Vietnam apparently to come to take multiple days at least three days and
we're talking about criss crossing a huge country like China North and South
touch country represent a enormous amount of disruption to the economy
activities in the in China the second largest economy in the world so I don't
forget you'd likely for him to take the land route but he might actually use
part of the trade using train so that's a possibility but I wouldn't expect him
German to make the whole trip to Vietnam by train so while there are a
speculation about a small deal or a big deal US President Donald Trump will
likely face scrutiny when he gets back home after the summit should the summit
feel to bring about substantial progress towards North Korea's denuclearization
or depending on what sorts of concessions he makes to Pyongyang but if
he is able to make convincing progress it could strengthen his footing in the
US at a time when he faces a lot of domestic issues with that in mind do you
think it will be all efforts to make a breakthrough in this summit I think
that's what that's an option 4% romper out on the other hand it's also an
option for him to keep making his relations to Kim jong-un and then having
in a multiple summits down the road because he can really continue this
perception that is to working really hard and you mind every time to the US
electorate that he's been able to do something that his predecessors failed
so I think this second summary is not going to be the end overall so Matt and
I think a person Jerome has been trying to manage the expectations in the record
and downgrading the level of the power for success from completing Makran
ization to something about the stability and security so I would say that he's
not going to make this data current upcoming summit the end of all cements
is going to make it a sell was another episode is ongoing saga so I think is
going to use that I mean each auction what about convenient for him to use the
continuation of the diplomatic talks in North Korea for continued I mean Anika
took about the perception to the US electorate that he said keeping and
having success when it comes to North Korea so another of many more to come
stepping aside a little bit there has been speculation that the u.s. is trying
to send a message to China by visiting Vietnam especially at a time
when Washington and Beijing are engaged in this trade more how do you see it
well I think that's a little bit of stretch I'll say because clearly you
know this is I mean the meeting between North Korea and the United States
something that's supported by China China definitely wants to see some sort
of negotiate and possibly welcome to the negotiation between the two countries
so the venue doesn't really matter for China we got to remember the last one
last time and in Singapore China was the one that supplied the logistics of
travel to Kim jong-un so China I think is behind this and I think he's going to
see the venue the which is Vietnam this time as a way for the u.s. to send a
message to China that the u.s. is spending or containing China in the
region so Vietnam itself is also stepping up a lot of preparations on its
own giving this summit a lot of media coverage and it's also setting up a
press Center for international reporters what are some of the benefits for
Vietnam for hosting this kind of summer well it clearly racist Viet Nam's
profile not just I mean major economy or that case a free advertisement from
Verizon from from the rest of world but also erases its diplomatic standing in
the eyes of the internal community and the fact that is enabled I mean the
Vietnam has been able to host a meeting between a very reclusive a paranoid
leader such as Kim Jong and the US president isn't going to really be
impressive I mean I mean a lot of people are going to find that very impressive
and it's going to make Fenimore influential voice in the future of the
international diplomacy so I think that's what we now actually craves and
it's got to make use of it down the road shifting gears a little bit South Korean
president moon jae-in on Monday said that he expects great development
towards developing or normalizing Pyongyang Washington ties as well as
North Korea's denuclearization now his comments come amid concerns that
there could only be a small deal coming out of the second summit now he has
expected to talk with President Trump over the phone soon what kind of things
do you think will be discussed and do you think this will give us an idea of
what to expect for the second summit well there's a
that's one of standing issue between North Korea and the United States we
heard from the media reports that US might offer to sign the Declaration to
in the world in Hanoi so there's a circulation that president moon would
cry to Hanoi to join the summit between the two
leaders to sign the Declaration to in the war agreement but then that didn't
materialize so but then I think despite the fact that our likelihood of the
creation being - in the world inside this time the system chance of her
happening and this is going to be a an option for the United States to offer to
North Korea as a way to incentivize North Korea to denuclearize so I think
all the present Trump impressive more I want to make the discussion about this
potential option and then sort of keep it alive so to speak so also on the
other hand the possibility of small do big deal but remember that you know just
our Puri success in the eyes of the beholder so I think present moon is what
to find any positive outcome no matter how big or small
what's a greater success so I would say that I mean I think I percent moon it's
pretty positive about the fact that something will come out of this so
before we let you go working-level talks are expected to take place this week if
the talks earlier this month in Pyongyang were aimed at browsing all the
cards each side had what do you think will be discussed this time and do you
think anything will we'll be able to hear anything about it before the summit
so I think we heard a lift from the American side what American side is
putting on the table we heard about a liaison surface when the possibility
discipline is lower but declaration tender or agreement is also on the table
and there's some sanctions relief or measure at least there'll be an
expansion about humanitarian assistance in North Korea so this order of shots
that the US has put on the table but we haven't heard much from the North Korean
side that's an indication that the two sides are still really working really
hard to come to an agreement before they have the summit next week so I think
that's pretty much what's going on right now okay I'm afraid that's all the time
we have for today thank you for your insights my pleasure