Let's start with the basics. COP stands
for the Conference of the Parties. It's
the annual meeting for the almost 200
countries signed up to the UN climate
treaty. This year it's happening in the
Scottish city of Glasgow. 25,000 people
are expected—world leaders with all
their staff as well as NGOs, activists,
private companies—
all things climate, basically. These
meetings have been happening for almost
30 years and it's been a rough ride.
But in 2015 there was finally a
breakthrough ...
... with a legally binding international
treaty known as the Paris Agreement.
For the first time almost all countries
in the world agreed on a clear goal: they
would limit the rise in global warming
to "well below" 2 degrees while still
"aiming for" 1.5 degrees compared to
pre-industrial levels. And to get there
they agreed we need net zero emissions
globally by the second half of this
century. That's where the amount of
greenhouse gases emitted is the same as
the amount that we remove from our
atmosphere.
So in Paris they
agreed on the objectives, which was hard
enough. But how do we actually achieve
them?
Well, it was decided that individual
countries should come up with their own
climate action plans — what are called
nationally determined contributions—NDCs
for short.
They might include anything from
switching to electric vehicles to
boosting renewable energy sources and
protecting forests.
The problem is that, taken
together, that first round of national
pledges falls way short. By 2030 they
would lead to a cut in global emissions
of less than 1% compared with
2010 levels—nowhere near what's needed
to keep us on track for 1.5 degrees.
What's needed, according to the world's
top climate scientists, is more than a
7% cut every year from now
until 2030. To put that into perspective,
last year when the world locked down
because of COVID-19, global emissions
dropped by just over 6%.
So, imagine, we need to do that and more
every single year until the end of the
decade.
Now, luckily the Paris
Agreement also says that every five
years countries have to come back with
more ambitious pledges. It's back to
those NDCs again. And unless they really
are ambitious enough this year, it'll
probably be too late.
This round of NDCs is really the last
chance to keep the 1.5 degree target in
reach
and that's what makes COP26 so important.
That means
everyone's got to get in on the act,
especially the biggest emitters.
The US has
already made a more ambitious
pledge, but there's still a question mark
about China, the world's biggest emitter.
It has made some big announcements, like
promising to reach net zero emissions by
2060 and no longer funding coal projects
abroad.
But it doesn't look like President Xi
Jinping is even going to Glasgow.
And when it comes to hitting that 2030
deadline to stay on track for 1.5
degrees, the world just can't do it
without China.
So, the new NDCs, who's
pledging what and who can be persuaded
to pledge more—that's all going to be a
big issue in Glasgow.
But another big issue is money, or the
lack of it. Back in 2009, developed
countries promised $100 billion
a year by 2020 to help
developing nations fight climate change.
But that deadline's now been and gone
and there's still $20 billion short.
And that issue of
adaptation, that's another big item on
the save the planet wish list that all
those COP delegates need to get through.
It means things like improving early
warning systems for storms and floods.
Also on the list: how to create a global
carbon market that actually works, how to
protect the environment so that nature
can do its part in absorbing more carbon,
how to reduce methane, another greenhouse gas,
and how to completely phase out coal.
Here's the thing: this is also the first
COP where the science is unequivocal.
Hanging over all those leaders in
Glasgow is a recent landmark report from
the world's top climate scientists
setting out the disasters in store for
us if we don't act now.
Just look at the last few months to get
a sense of where things are going.
However hard COP negotiations are, in
some ways, they're also the easy part.
Making sure that countries actually
deliver on the pledges and the plans is
an even bigger challenge.
But the stakes are way too high to have
our leaders cop out now.
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