As of March 29th, 2023, three active volcanoes in the Caribbean are at a raised alert level
of yellow.
These volcanoes are as follows; on the island of Guadeloupe, the volcano known as La Grande
Soufrière.
North of Grenada, the Kick 'em Jenny submarine volcano.
And, most notably, on the island of Martinique, Mount Pelee is also currently at an alert
level of yellow.
Taken out of context, this situation might sound somewhat scary, as Pelee produced the
deadliest volcanic eruption of the 20th century, wiping out the town of Saint-Pierre and resulting
in nearly 30,000 deaths in 1902.
And, many people only became aware that several Caribbean volcanoes were at a raised alert
level after the La Soufriere volcano on the island of Saint Vincent began to erupt in
late December of 2020, as by December 30th Pelee and La Soufriere were both at raised
alert levels.
And, local residents who know their history will note that both of these volcanoes produced
destructive eruptions in 1902.
Thus, some people have pointed to the two volcanoes having what appears to be a connection,
worrying that since La Soufriere did erupt in December of 2020 to April of 2021 that
a similar fate might be waiting in the next few years at Pelee.
However, a large scale eruption in my opinion does not appear likely anytime soon given
the present activity` at Pelee, and there is not actually a known connection between
the two volcanoes.
La Soufriere does not seem to effect Pelee, and vice versa.
I will briefly explain what is occurring at several Carribean volcanoes as several people
have emailed me asking what the volcanic situation is as of 2023.
After the explosive phase of La Soufriere's eruption during April of 2021 which blew out
a 900 meter wide crater and destroyed two lava domes occurred, its alert level was lowered
in several stages, finally being lowered to a normal alert level of green on March 16th
of 2022.
On the other hand, although the Kick 'em Jenny volcano has not erupted since 2017, it has
remained at an alert level of yellow.
So, is anything special occurring at this volcano?
The truth is no, not really.
The reason Kick 'em Jenny is at an alert level of yellow is because, per a statement paraphrased
from the UWI Seismic website, sensors don't really detect anything from this specific
volcano until it is already erupting.
In other words, it can erupt with little or no warning, and as a result its lowest alert
level is not green but instead yellow, carrying a minimum permanent exclusion zone of 1500
meters around its summit.
Meanwhile, the situation at La Grande Soufriere is somewhat different, as it has been at a
raised alert level of yellow for several years, perhaps since even as far back as 2001.
After last erupting in 1977, a definite change in activity would eventually follow in 1992.
This marked the year when the volcano "reactivated", as a sustained increase in seismic activity
occurred which was consistent with what in my opinion was the slow refilling of its at
depth magma chamber.
This process has now been ongoing for 31 years and an eruption has not occurred during that
time.
And, nothing dramatic has occurred at the volcano in the last few weeks other than a
minor earthquake swarm from March 7th to March 8th which consisted of 36 earthquakes of less
than a magnitude 1.0.
Pelee is in a similar situation as La Grande Soufriere, although its possible reactivation
occurred in late 2018, and produced a definite increase in seismic activity in April of 2019.
Its alert level was only raised on December 4th of 2020 from green to yellow after two
tremors were detected the prior month.
Since then Pelee has not really produced anything truly noteworthy although the number of earthquakes
it has produced every week is still elevated, with 6 occurring in the week preceding March
24th, 2023.
Thus, if you live on these islands, in my opinion I would not be worrying about a volcanic
eruption occurring in the short term future.
I have generally found that longer periods of low volcanic unrest are far less likely
to produce an eruption than rapid high intensity periods of volcanic unrest.
After all, an apparent reactivation of a volcano does not mean that it eventually is guaranteed
to erupt in its current unrest period, however long it might end up lasting for.
For example, the Three Sisters volcano in Oregon reactivated in 1995, and the Edgecumbe
volcano in Alaska reactivated in 2018, yet neither of these have erupted as of March
29th of 2023.
While there is currently not a short term concern regarding any of the Caribbean volcanoes,
because volcanoes are sometimes unpredictable and can erupt without warning, especially
during unrest periods, there is a potential longer term threat.
As, in the next 25 years, there is always a possibility that something will unexpectedly
rapidly change during an unrest period in the future at one or more volcanoes, possibly
leading to an eruption or series of eruptions.
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