The fleet of Russian flag carrier Aeroflot has changed over the past year. While the overall
quantity of aircraft is only slightly smaller, just over one-fifth of these jets are listed
as parked. Sanctions from mainly western countries have had a significant impact
on aircraft maintenance and serviceability, and wiped out any and all future deliveries
of western-built aircraft. Indeed, as we move towards the possibility of a new "Cold
War," the fleet of Aeroflot will likely become increasingly comprised of Russian-built aircraft.
Today let’s look at the current state of the Aeroflot fleet,
one year after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine.
We begin our examination of Aeroflot's current fleet by looking at figures
compiled by Planespotters.net. With 173 aircraft under the care of the airline,
these are the types and quantities of planes listed:
52 A320-200s 6 A320neos
32 A321-200s 3 A321neos
12 A330-300s 7 A350-900s
37 737-800s 22 777-300ERs
2 Superjet 100s
So how have numbers changed since we last examined the fleet at the end of March 2022?
Well, for starters, the airline is now down by seven aircraft. At the
aircraft-type level, we can see that all quantities of Airbus and Boeing aircraft
have remained exactly the same as last year, with lease seizures and
repossessions taking place before our March 30th 2022 fleet examination.
Indeed, the main change comes from the airline having seven fewer Sukhoi Superjet 100s. Where
there were once nine of these small regional jets, the carrier now has two under its name. The loss
was the result of the jets being transferred from Aeroflot to fellow Aeroflot Group airline Rossiya.
While repossessions of leased aircraft operated by
Russian airlines took place swiftly in the weeks after the invasion,
one Airbus A330 operated by Aeroflot was caught up in a tense seizure incident last June.
It was on June 2nd that the A330-300 once registered VQ-BMY
but re-registered RA-73702 was seized at Colombo in Sri Lanka.
The plane, filled with passengers, was about to leave Colombo’s Bandaranaike International
Airport when air traffic control reportedly received orders to stop it from taking off.
All passengers and crew from the aircraft disembarked and were accommodated in hotels.
In the days following, Sri Lankan court suspended the order, and the aircraft was
once again allowed to takeoff. The rightful owner of the now 11-year-old jet, Irish lessor Celestial
Aviation Trading, has been left one aircraft short due to its inability to repossess the A330.
At the start of this year, Aeroflot announced it had purchased ten Boeing
777-300ER aircraft that had been on long-term leases with the airline since 2013 and 2014.
The buyout was conducted through a quote-unquote “Irish lessor."
At the time of the news, Aeroflot said in a statement shared with
Russian media that it intended to keep looking to
buy more foreign-leased planes in an effort to maintain its fleet.
The statement read, "Aeroflot will continue to work on further
implementation of transactions for the purchase of aircraft in order to maintain the current
fleet of foreign-made aircraft in operation and expand the possibility of their operation.
This approach also confirms the reliability of Aeroflot
as a counterparty that responsibly fulfills its contractual obligations."
The airline’s actions were a repeat of July 2022,
when it had purchased eight Airbus A330 aircraft from foreign leasing companies.
While a slightly smaller fleet might not be too noteworthy,
the interesting thing to focus on is the fact that Aeroflot's fleet would
have grown had it not been for sanctions prompted by the invasion of Ukraine.
The most notable delivery halt (and redistribution) is with the airline's
order of 22 Airbus A350-900s. We noted last year that,
while a single A350 was delivered the same day as the invasion’s start,
several A350s that were ready (or near-ready) were sitting in storage at Châteauroux-Centre
Airport. The Manufacturer Serial Numbers (MSNs) of those jets are 471, 457 and 463.
So where did these A350s meant for Aeroflot end up?
We know that MSNs 471, 457, 463 and 493 now fly for Turkish Airlines. In fact, of the
six A350-900s delivered to Turkish Airlines in 2022, four of these were meant to go to Aeroflot.
And it's not just Turkish Airlines picking up Aeroflot's A350 orders.
Indian flag carrier Air India has benefitted as well. After nearly a year of speculation,
Air India announced in February 2023 plans for a major fleet expansion and modernization.
Orders, which will see the addition of new Boeing and Airbus narrowbodies and widebodies,
include Airbus A350-900s - more specifically, jets that were meant to go to Aeroflot.
According to Aviation Source News, the specific MSNs for these re-allocated A350s are as follows:
589 592
594 558
554 555
Extensive sanctions also forbid any export of spare parts from the EU or the US to Russia.
In addition to fewer international destinations for Aeroflot jets to serve due to airspace bans,
sanctions on spare parts are also a big explanation for the
large number of aircraft listed as 'parked' by Planespotters.net.
At the moment, 37 of the airline's 173 aircraft are listed as parked - a
little over 20%. Many have suspected or predicted that cannibalization of
aircraft will take place in order to ensure a partially active fleet.
In August 2022, we reported that Aeroflot had begun stripping one of its brand-new
Airbus A350s for parts. As many as four industry sources told Reuters
that Russian carriers had grounded and begun dismantling some aircraft
to service others in order to keep the rest of their fleets airworthy.
One source said at the time that at least one Sukhoi Superjet SSJ100 (Russian-built,
but comprised of foreign-produced parts) and one Airbus A350 had been 'harvested.'
While we won't list all the aircraft currently listed as parked,
it's worth noting that four of 12 A330-300s and four of seven A350-900s
are on the ground. On the Boeing side, just three of 22 777-300ERs are parked.
With spare parts being used up over time, the expectation would be to see fewer
and fewer Airbus and Boeing aircraft flying with Aeroflot as time goes by.
However, this is far from guaranteed as reports from summer 2022 indicated that Russia has plans
to manufacture unauthorized and unapproved spare parts for these western-built aircraft.
According to Air Insight Group, Russian aviation authority, Rostaviatsia, issued developer
certificates to five companies authorizing them to perform modification, certification of minor
changes, and issuance of technical documentation, including approval of repair documentation and
changes. The media outlet notes that certification of these Russian companies enables them to
manufacture spare parts. While these could keep western jets flying, these components and their
presence within Airbus and Boeing jets would not be recognized as airworthy outside of Russia.
It's also worth noting that China's Ambassador to Russia, Zhang Hanui,
declared in June that China was "ready to supply spare parts to the Russian
Federation," assuring that there would be “no restrictions from the Chinese side.”
Recently, Airbus Chief Executive Officer, Guillaume Faury, commented on the current
situation in Russia as it relates to his company and the planes that bear its stamp, saying:
"We have some visibility, but obviously less than we had before the 24th of February last year. What
we observe is that the Russian airlines have been able to continue to fly despite the sanctions.
In fact, they were flying more in the second half of 2022 than what they were before COVID."
Faury continued,
“But we start to hear about situations where they are missing parts or components
or an inability to keep some of the planes in flight. But
we are not speaking with the Russian airlines. We miss visibility. And yes,
we are slightly concerned about the way the planes are operated, but we have no real means to act."
With an inability to take new Airbus or Boeing aircraft and
challenges in servicing its existing western-built jets, it's no surprise
that the airline is looking to decrease its dependence on foreign-built aircraft.
In fact, Aeroflot has plans to have Russian-built aircraft make up 70% of its fleet by 2030.
Commenting on the airline’s growth plans, Aeroflot’s chief executive officer,
Sergey Aleksandrovsk was reported as saying: "By 2030, we plan to put into operation 339
domestic aircraft and develop competencies to maintain airworthiness. The ratio of foreign
and domestic aircraft in the fleet will be 30 to 70%, respectively.”
Plans have been moving along, as Russian news agency TASS conirmed in February 2023
a deal to deliver 63 civil aircraft, with deliveries scheduled for 2025.
The Russian Industry and Trade Ministry said the first delivery of two 'SSJ-New'
planes would begin in 2023, with six MC-21 and seven Tu-214s to be delivered in 2024.
The specific breakdown of the 63-aircraft deal is for 18 Irkut MC-21s, 34 SSJ-News,
and 11 Tupolev Tu-214s.
From the events of 2022, it's clear that Aeroflot is an airline in transition.
With growing tensions between the east and west,
a return to a pre-invasion state will not take place easily, or at any time in the near future.
We might expect to see Aeroflot slowly reduce its number of Airbus and Boeing aircraft as
the availability of spare parts continues to decline. However, as we noted above, spare
parts produced by Russian and Chinese industries could keep these aircraft flying.
Ultimately, new airframes joining Aeroflot for the foreseeable future
will be those produced in Russia from names such as Irkut, Tupolev, and more.
So what do you think of Aeroflot's current fleet composition? How long do you think it will be able
to keep its Airbus and Boeing aircraft flying? Share your opinions by leaving a comment!