the only reason we're even talking about china's significant powers because of globalization
it was the end of world war ii settlement that removed the europeans from the capacity
of intervening in china it was the end of world war ii in the settlement with the japanese that
prevented the colonization of china japan was winning in china right up until the bombs fell on
nagasaki and hiroshima and then all of a sudden the chinese environment changed overnight all
the foreigners left and the chinese could fight their own internal civil war which eventually the
communists won and then we got to a point 20 years later where the soviets and the chinese fought a
near-nuclear conflict over border disputes entered nixon and kissinger and the rest is
history because we basically convinced the chinese to switch sides they joined the globalized system
and in turn for turning their backs on the soviets and that is what set up the strategic environment
for china's growth ever since however that is not sustainable without intervention from the
united states or globalization in general the line of islands off the chinese coast
japan taiwan philippines if there's one thing they all agree on is that they're not china
and the chinese have never been able to project power beyond that except during the global order
because the americans have forced everyone to be on the same side that's breaking down now and the
chinese don't have the capacity in any form to project power much beyond their own coastline
they do have a lot of ships ninety percent of them can't sail more than a thousand miles from shore
and that assumes they're going at a slow speed to save fuel in a straight line and no one's shooting
at them really china can barely make it past taiwan and china is the most internationalized
economy in terms of its resource and its market dependence so if the global system breaks down
that is it the chinese system implodes and if china finds itself in a real war with anyone
someone the japanese the taiwanese the vietnamese the indians the americans someone is going to put
a couple of destroyers in the persian gulf or in the indian ocean and cut the energy line
china imports 85 of their energy and 85 of that comes from the persian gulf and the chinese can't
reach persian gulf so any breakdown in the regional or the global order and its lights
out and never forget that agriculture is an industrialized sector and the chinese import
almost all of their inputs for that too so you're talking about the lights going out the truck
stopping and famine within a year a great example is what's going on with the ukraine war so there
is this belief in china that uh the russians will take ukraine first it will kind of prove uh the
theory that we have that we can take taiwan easily clearly that's not the case because while the
russians are clearly not performing to snuff the ukrainian army is not a regular army they're doing
great don't get me wrong but the power mismatch and that is not nearly as big as the power
mismatch between china and taiwan because the taiwanese have been preparing for this war now for
70 years and they have a lot of modern equipment and oh yeah they're still an island so scratch
one they know the strategic relationship will not go the way they were hoping they're terrified of
the boycotts and the sanctions because the idea that shareholders would back away is something
that they can't deal with economically they need those connections in order to employ their own
population and the sanctions you know say what you will about the russian economy it's a major
exporter of both foodstuffs and energy and the chinese are major importers of both so if we put a
russia-style sanction on the chinese system that's it it's over it collapses in less than a year
and then if you just need one more reason you know this is like i think this is plenty
uh demographics the one child policy started 40 years ago they're literally running out of
workers and consumers it's the fastest aging society in human history and some
of the data they've been leaking out of the 2020 decade census suggests that this is them
suggesting that they've actually over counted their population by about 100 million people
and that's all people who were born since the one child policy and it's probably the vast
majority of them being women so there is no hope for a demographic reconstitution of this country
we've always known for demographics it was going to collapse this century
because they're aging so fast there'll be less than half as many people in 2100 as there are
now assuming nothing goes wrong with anything else and now with this new data from the census
we may have to speed that date up by 50 years so in my opinion this decade was
always going to be the decade where the chinese system completely collapsed we're losing our
boogie man i think we'll get by you break down food and energy and consumption at the same time
you're talking about a systemic challenge at every level of each individual country
and the ones that were more dependent upon these imports and outputs these imports and exports
they're not just looking at the lights going out they're looking at a population correction as we
experience agricultural demand destruction which is a fancy technical way of saying mass famine
in in those systems whether it happens to be in china or sub-saharan africa or central asia
you're looking at a complete collapse of what it means to be able to participate
in the modern world and that means the rule of law goes away that means the government goes away
and we have to we're gonna have to watch a lot of these places just break down
into a system that we have not seen in the last two centuries
places where industrialization is simply no longer possible so with currency everyone who for
whatever reason doesn't care for the united states saw this as proof in the pudding that they need
to shift to a different system and so everyone started having conversations about what they
would shift to the russians say well obviously it should be rubles the chinese no no it should
be yuan but it's not convertible so you you're gonna have to fly those to you a pallet at a time
and we don't want any of them back ever and the indians were like well hey rupees let's use rupees
and so you know it's only been six months and all of those plans have imploded and the us's dollar
role in the global system has gone up uh even because the euro now has basically hitched itself
to the dollar as a secondary support system rather than its own independent poll and the same with
the japanese uh so you know there's just there's no alternative here there's no other option
on the investment side the chinese have had a reputation for using a lot of capital flight
and a lot of export earnings to purchase what they consider to be strategic assets around the world
and that has generated a lot of heartburn in a lot of places well they now know that that's pointless
because the germans who are you know let's say not where should i put this made some poor
strategic decisions over the course of the last 30 years as regards to the russians they're already
nationalizing russian assets in germany you know the germans the ones who are the pacifists and
the socialists so the chinese are now realizing that everything they bought overseas is worthless
and they're trying to sell a lot of it so at least they'll get some cash out of it but they only want
zero dollars zero four one four zero rtb linking via septum
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