bjbjLULU MARGARET WARNER: And for more on what this means for Russia and its relationship
with the United States, we turn to two long-time Russia watchers. Angela Stent directs the
Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies at Georgetown University. She formerly
served as chief officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council. And
Dmitri Trenin directs the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Moscow Center. His
latest book is "Post-Imperium: A Eurasian Story." Welcome to you both. And welcome being
here in Moscow. MARGARET WARNER: Angela Stent, beginning with you, what should we make of
this changeover? How big a deal is it? ANGELA STENT, Georgetown University: Well, it's not
a very big deal in the sense that Mr. Putin has really been in charge of Russia even as
prime minister, as we can now see. But it means that we know now that the system he
created is probably going to continue for the next 12 years and that we will be dealing
with him as the president of Russia in terms of U.S.-Russian relations. And I think the
question will be, how will he tackle the economic and the social and the political issues that
Russia faces as it goes forward? MARGARET WARNER: Dmitri Trenin, is this much of a surprise?
I mean, given what Putin said about, we had -- made this agreement several years ago,
was the fix in from the start? DMITRI TRENIN, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace:
Well, it is not -- it is a surprise and it isn't. It's not a surprise that Putin has
decided to come back to the Kremlin as president. Everyone understood that it was Putin's decision
to make. He could have re-appointed Medvedev. He could have decided -- and in fact he did
decide -- to go back to the Kremlin himself. What was interesting and somewhat surprising
was the decision by Putin to appoint Medvedev as prime minister. And I think that many people
had not been thinking about that. Many people took it by surprise. And some people simply
rejected the notion of serving Prime Minister Medvedev. And we're talking about Finance
Minister Alexei Kudrin, who was mentioned in your program just a few minutes ago. MARGARET
WARNER: Well, how different are the two? I mean, did Medvedev chart any kind of independent
course that is now going to be abandoned? ANGELA STENT: Medvedev made some very eloquent
speeches about the need to modernize, the need to get rid of corruption, and the need
to have Russia move into the 21st century, but he really didn't do very much. He never
built up his own base of people who were working with him. He was working mainly with Putin
holdovers. So, I don't really think there is that much difference between the two of
them. MARGARET WARNER: But, I mean, why would, say, Kudrin not want to work with him? ANGELA
STENT: Because Mr. Kudrin has had differences of opinions with Mr. Medvedev about some of
his economic policies. He wants to spend more government money. Mr. Kudrin is a fiscal conservative
and, by the way, is very well-regarded, both in the West and in Russia. MARGARET WARNER:
Well, let's talk about U.S.-Russia relations. What difference, if any, will this make and
mean for U.S.-Russia relations, the Obama administration, which invested so much in
cultivating a relationship with Medvedev? DMITRI TRENIN: Well, first of all, I think
that although the Obama administration invested in Medvedev as president, they always kept
at the back of their mind the notion that the top man in Russia was Mr. Putin. MARGARET
WARNER: The power behind the throne, essentially. DMITRI TRENIN: The power behind and above
the throne. MARGARET WARNER: Above? (LAUGHTER) DMITRI TRENIN: Right. So it may be fun to
be president. It may be more fun to have the president work for you. So, the Obama administration
had to deal with Medvedev overtly and with Putin in some other ways. Now, this is becoming
more streamlined, more straightforward. And the only problem is that Mr. Putin, rather
than Mr. Medvedev, will be the official partner of the United States' president. And that
is important because, in part, the reset was successful because the name of the Russian
president wasn't Vladimir Putin. Now Vladimir Putin is back. And some people have to rethink
what that means and how to address Putin now in his capacity as not only the informal,
but also the formal leader of the Russian Federation. MARGARET WARNER: Well, Angela
Stent, pick up on that in terms of, how much business really was done between the U.S.
and Russia in the Medvedev time? I mentioned a couple of things. ANGELA STENT: Yes. MARGARET
WARNER: And would Putin continue down that path, or do you think there may be a difference?
ANGELA STENT: Well, I think we and the Russians have common interests. And we have managed
to work on these since President Obama and President Medvedev were in office. You mentioned
those. We have the New START arms control agreement, cooperation on Iran. And the most
important thing for the U.S. now is the cooperation on Afghanistan. The more problematic Pakistan
becomes -- and, of course, you have reported very interestingly from there -- the more
Russia is important in terms of transporting military and other supplies to Afghanistan.
And the Russians also have an interest in seeing that we don't fail in Afghanistan and
leave too quickly. Now, having said that, the easy parts of this reset have been done.
And the next set of issues, they are more complicated. And they have to do with more
arms control. They have to do with missile defense cooperation, which is problematic,
and with issues like Iran. And I think the other thing to remember is that, in the U.S.-Russian
relationship, in the last 20 years, the relationship between the leaders is important, because
we don't have that many stakeholders. There's not that much depth to that relationship yet.
And, therefore, it will be important for President Obama and President-Putin-to-be -- to develop
a workable, close -- a workable relationship at least. And they have met once in July of
2009. And that was a tough meeting. So I think that who occupies the chair in the Kremlin
is important. I think we can still cooperate, but it's not to be quite as easy as it's been
in the last three years. MARGARET WARNER: What is the buzz you hear in Moscow about
the Obama-Putin relationship? As Angela Stent just said, they only had one huge meeting,
which was the one when President Obama went to Russia on that summit trip. DMITRI TRENIN:
Well, I think that the meeting was tough, as you describe it. But I think that... MARGARET
WARNER: But he -- basically, as I recall, Putin basically harangued President Obama
about the litany of unhappiness. DMITRI TRENIN: Harangued is one way of putting that. He basically
told Obama what was on his mind. He basically told Obama that he and Russia had certain
complaints. He and Russia had certain views that collided with the views at least of the
previous administration in the U.S. Obama took that calmly. He took that on board. And
I think that Putin was satisfied by that. I think that that was a test for the reset
in Putin's eyes. And, in Putin's eyes, Obama had passed that test. And Medvedev was given
the go-ahead to continue. MARGARET WARNER: And you met -- you were part of a group that
met with then Prime Minister Medvedev -- I mean, Putin last year. ANGELA STENT: Putin,
right. So, last September, a group of us met with Mr. Putin. And he had some very complimentary
things to say about President Obama. The previous year, when our group had met with him, he
was somewhat more skeptical about Obama. But, last year, he was very complimentary. And
that already led, I think some of us to believe that maybe he was looking to his return as
president and to having a better relationship with President Obama, including saying that
they had both been under unfair criticism from their populations for things that had
happened that really weren't their fault. So... MARGARET WARNER: But is it fair to say,
Dmitri Trenin, that -- briefly, that President-to-be Putin is a bit more of a hard-liner even than
Medvedev on things like, for instance, the missile defense system that the U.S. would
like to help NATO build against Iranian missiles? DMITRI TRENIN: Margaret, I think we need to
be under no illusion that all the major decisions in Russia have been taken by Putin or with
Putin's support. And, also, Putin has a reputation of a hard-liner, which makes it easier for
him to push through some hard decisions. And that may be a boon for U.S.-Russian relations
in the future. MARGARET WARNER: Well, I'm sure we will all hope that you're both right.
Dmitry Medvedev and Angela Stent, thank you so much. DMITRI TRENIN: Thank you. urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags
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