- EV sales in the United States are soaring,
but 2017 is just getting started.
I have some data here from ev-volumes.com
and we're gonna dig into it
and try to understand what's going on in the market here.
Stay tuned.
(calm techno music)
Hey, thanks for joining me here on Teslanomics.
I'm Ben Sullins.
Where each week what we do here is we decode the data
behind Tesla, a company that's really changing
our world like no other.
And while everyone else focuses
on the flashy, sex-appeal of it,
we like to see the facts and figures, the data,
and really try to understand the meaning.
So, today what I'm excited about
is that I have some updated information
about the EV market in the United States.
And so, with this what I wanna do
is I wanna look at a few different things.
I wanna look at the overall change and what's going on
with the sales in the United States.
A little bit about the plug-ins versus the battery EVs.
Then we'll get into the Model 3
and even talk about Tesla overall and see how they're doing.
So, let's dive into the data now.
So sales for January, February, and March Q1 of 2017
are up overall 47%, year over year.
January was 72% up, February was 55%,
and March was 31% up.
Now, that is with 40,700 plug-in sales
and a market share of 1% overall for the first three months.
That's tremendous.
That's a big jump for this market which is growing.
Now, if you look at overall vehicle sales
they're not actually doing so hot.
So, the EV market is thriving
and I think it's signaling the beginning of a shift
towards more sustainable forms of transport.
Whether that's a plug-in, electric hybrid
or a battery plug-in, like a Tesla.
Now, the BEV category, the Battery Electric Vehicle category
is dominated by Tesla.
Which was almost half of all sales of EV's in Q1.
So, we're looking at about 250,000 plug-in EV sales
in the US in 2017.
Now, a lot of that is due
to the longer-range battery EVs coming to market.
The Chevy Bolt is already here,
and hopefully Chevy is gonna ramp that up
'cause right now it's pretty limited,
what they're doing in terms of where they're selling
and the volume that they're selling.
But, with the Model 3 coming in
and possibly a next-gen Leaf and maybe even some other ones
coming to market this year, what we're gonna see,
I believe, is a big surge because these cars
are now affordable and they're much more practical.
You don't have range anxiety
and charging infrastructure's growing,
so there's a lot more reasons to have an EV.
And a lot of people, since the price is coming down as well,
I think it's going to be a really attractive option
for a lot of folks here in the United States.
Now, this is great because prior to that growth
from 2011 to 2016 was only 54% overall.
From 2011 to 2016, so not huge.
That's compared to 72% of the worldwide market,
so worldwide, other countries are growing much, much faster
than the US market and that's 143% in China.
So, how China is really the world's largest market
that's growing the fastest, but the fact that in the US,
from last year to this year, so far in Q1,
we're seeing a big jump that's really encouraging
that EVs are growing in commonality
and a lot more people are deciding
that they're a good option for them.
Of course, the Model 3 is one of the big reasons
why there's such a huge emphasis this year,
on 2017 being a big year for EVs.
Now, Electrek was estimating at about 80,000 units.
I don't know if they've come back on that at all,
but EV-Volumes, the guys where I got this data from
they're predicting at least 50,000 deliveries
of the new Tesla Model 3 in the US, this year.
So, that's good news if you're a reservation holder
and according to their earnings call they just had
a couple days ago for Q1, it looks good.
On the earnings call, they said the Model 3 is on track
and hope to be producing 5,000 Model 3's per week
at some point in 2017.
Now, one big question about this though with Tesla's Model 3
is their rush to productionize their assembly line.
Now, other ways that companies do it, the traditional way,
is they have these cheaper parts that they kind of test
the assembly line with and then before they get
like the steel, Diecast ones in
and the ones that are really the productionized ones.
So, they're skipping that phase
of testing their production line
and going straight to the final...the final fittings
and the final machinery and everything.
So, that could be a home-run for them
or they could strike out.
It could cause major problems for them down the road,
because there are issues that they identify now.
They already have release candidates out there.
We've all the seen the videos of the release candidates
driving around and all that.
And everything else seems to be on track as well,
including all the vendors that are selling parts to them.
Tesla indicated that that's going well.
So, I'm thinking somewhere between 50,000 and 80,000.
Hopefully towards the 80,000, we'll see Model 3's
actually being delivered in the US, this year.
That would be a tremendous number.
And again, it's actually gonna bump up the number
of electric vehicles in California, since California,
already has almost 50% of the entire US market.
Now, a big question about the Model 3,
and you've asked me this as well,
is what's gonna happen to the tax credit?
Is the tax credit phasing out?
Well, CleanTechnica, which is a great website
with a lot of good info about the EV market,
has a really good post
I'm gonna link to the description down below.
Where they talk about this, and the idea is that,
yes, Tesla is likely to hit the 200,000th car sold
in the US this year.
It'll probably be late in the year,
so I would imagine or I'm guessing that any car sold,
or that you've, you know, you receive from Tesla this year
will get the full $7,500 tax credit.
But, once they hit that mark.
Once they hit that 200,000th car sold in the US,
that's when the tax credit starts to phase out.
Now, some details on that, and I'm getting this again
from CleanTechnica so you can reference that.
"The full amount of the EV qualifying tax credit
"is in place during the entire calendar quarter
"in which 200,000 EVs are sold by a manufacturer
"and through the subsequent quarter."
So that means, that if they hit it in Q4 that
that full credit will remain even after the 200,000th mark.
And then, it will also extend into Q1 of the following year.
Now, "Then the tax credit is reduced by 50%."
So... 3,750.
"$3750 for Tesla models
"for the next two quarters."
So, if we're just following along here,
that would mean that we would have all the cars sold
by Tesla this year would get the full credit.
And then also, if it's going into the following credit,
the following quarter, that would be all
the cars sold in Q1 of 2018.
Then in Q2 and Q3 of 2018,
you would only get 50% of that, so you'd get the 3,750.
Then, "The credit is reduced again to 25%, so $1,875
of the original amount for the subsequent two quarters."
So, after that, the credit expires completely.
So, you're looking at least until the end of 2018,
most likely, before any...
Before the credit's gone.
And you're possibly looking to Q2 and maybe Q1 of 2018
before it starts to get reduced.
So, I wouldn't be too worried about it
if you already have a reservation in,
but if you haven't placed one yet.
Yeah, you're probably not gonna get the full credit
but of course there are other options.
You can get a used Model S, which you don't get
any credit for but you save a huge amount on.
Or you can get, you can buy just a new Model S or Model X,
earlier than that and guarantee
that you will get that credit.
So, if you're on the fence about that I would say,
if you're really focused on the credit,
then you're probably gonna want to look at the Model S
or Model X, if you don't already have a Model 3 reservation.
So, when it comes to EV sales in the US,
Tesla is really the ruler here.
They really are the king.
When you combine the Model S and the Model X,
Tesla actually were accounted for 48%
of the battery EV sales in the United States.
That's huge, I mean, they own the market essentially.
There aren't many other...
Many other industries where somebody has 48%
of all sales and isn't, you know, kind of
dubbed the king of that.
So, Tesla is really, really ruling it here.
With the Model 3, I don't see that changing that much.
I mean, GM is still kind of playing with the idea.
I know they have the Bolt out there and the Volt,
actually, which I think is a better car.
But, they're not whole scale, you know, pushing it.
They still are focused on selling the high-end SUVs,
which is where the big moneymakers are.
Now, as SUVs and even trucks get into the electric space,
I know Tesla announced it as well as a few other companies
that are doing this, that's where I think you're gonna
see the other big players really, really involved.
So, right now I think Tesla is gonna,
or for the foreseeable future, Tesla's gonna dominate
the EV sales this year for the battery electric vehicles.
And, it's also surprising that the Nissan Leaf
is still selling pretty well,
even with the new one coming out.
And the Chevy Bolt, I think is really just being limited
by their rollout strategy.
I think the Bolt would sell incredibly well,
if they actually made the car
and made it available to more places.
As you guys have shared with me,
it was totally unbeknownst to me,
I thought it was available everywhere
but it's only available
in certain states in limited quantities.
So, it's selling well, but it's not really available yet.
So, I think that if Chevy wanted to,
they could really push it with the Bolt,
especially being first to market with their car
that's around 35,000 and gets over 200 miles.
And it's a decent car.
I did a test drive of it, you know,
not the best car guy out there so I couldn't judge on that,
but I thought it was fine.
I wouldn't, you know, I'm not hating on it all.
I don't think it compares to a Tesla really,
but in any regard I think Chevy
could do really well if they wanted to.
But, we'll see, you know, they don't have
the best reputation in the EV market.
So, let me know what you think.
Are you in the market for an EV?
Are you looking at a Nissan Leaf,
a Chevy Bolt, maybe a Volt instead?
Which I'm starting to become more and more a fan of.
Let me know in the comments down below.
And as always, thanks for joining me
and I'll see you back here next time.
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