SIX DAYS AND A LOT MORE COULD
CHANGE IN ANOTHER SIX DAYS.
LEE AND RICHARD ENGEL,
THANK YOU.
>>> JOINING ME IS DOUG LEW,
FORMER AMBASSADOR TO NATO.
LET'S START WITH THE STATUS OF
THE RUSSIAN MILITARY.
IT SEEMS AS IF IT DIDN'T GO
WELL.
OBVIOUSLY, HE'S GOT TO ALTER HIS
PLANS.
TKT GED MORE BRUTAL AND VIOLENT.
IT WILL BE A LOT HARDER TO SIT
BACK AND WATCH AS A NATO MEMBER,
NATION, NO MATTER WHO YOU ARE,
IF IT GETS AS BRUTAL AND SOME
OFFICIALS SEEM TO EXPECT.
IS THAT WHAT YOU EXPECT?
>> WELL, CHUCK, I DO EXPECT IT
TO BE MORE BRUTAL.
WE SHOULD APPRECIATE WE'RE IN
THE EARLY DAYS, JUST A FEW DAYS
INTO THIS, AND WE SHOULD EXPECT
THIS TO BE A LONG, PROTRACTED,
BRUTAL CAMPAIGN.
IF HE WANT AN EXAMPLE OF WHAT
THE RUSSIAN REGIME IS CAPABLE
OF, THINK BACK 20 YEARS TO THE
CAMPAIGN THEY TOOK TO THEIR OWN
RUSSIAN CITIZENS IN CHECHNYA,
AND LOOK AT THE PICTURES OF THE
CITY OF GROZNY, THE CAPITAL OF
CHECHNYA, FROM 20 YEARS AGO.
THEY LEVELED IT.
YOU CAN IMAGINE THAT KIND OF
CITY FIGHTING, MASS BOMBARDMENT,
DISREGARD FOR CIVILIAN
CASUALTIES, THAT'S WHAT'S
BEARING DOWN ON KHARKIV AND KYIV
NOW.
IF GIVEN THE CHOICE, PUTIN WILL
DOUBLE DOWN BEFORE HE BACKS
DOWN.
>> HIS DECISION TO AMP UP HIS
NUCLEAR POSTURE, I READ ONE
ANALYSIS THAT SAID THAT THE U.S.
SHOULD BE CAREFUL NOT TO
OVERRESPOND BECAUSE THAT'S
EXACTLY WHAT PUTIN WANTS, THAT
HE'S TRYING TO TAKE THE FOCUS
OFF OF THE FACT THAT HE'S
FAILING IN UKRAINE AND HE WANTS
TO MAKE THIS A WAR WITH THE
UNITED STATES, A WAR WITH THE
WEST.
HOW DO WE BALANCE THAT AND STILL
MAKE SURE WE'RE KEEPING AN EYE
ON THE IDEA THAT THE THING WE'VE
ALWAYS FEARED IS A MAD MAN WITH
A NUKE?
WHAT IF WE SUDDENLY HAVE A
MADMAN WITH A NUKE?
>> I THINK THE ADMINISTRATION,
THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION'S
RESPONSE TO THIS HAS BEEN SPOT
ON, AND IT IS VERY PRUDENT, NOT
ESCALATORY IN ANY WAY, AND JUST
REASSURING THAT THE AMERICAN
DETERRENCE POSTURE, OUR NUCLEAR
FORCE, IS SAFE, IT'S SECURE, AND
IT'S THE RIGHT WAY TO GO HERE.
SOMEBODY'S GOT TO BE THE ADULT
IN THIS ROOM.
I THINK WHAT WE'LL WATCH
CAREFULLY NOW GOING FORWARD IS
TO SEE IF PRESIDENT PUTIN HAS
ANY ACTIONS THAT MATCH THIS
INCREASED READINESS LEVEL OF HIS
NUCLEAR FORCES.
THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS OF NUCLEAR
READINESS IN THE RUSSIAN SYSTEM.
THEY JUST MOVE FROM THE NORMAL
STATUS QUO LEVEL ONE LEVEL UP.
WE WOULD NOW EXPECT TO WATCH FOR
MOVEMENT OF WARHEADS, DOES HE
PUT NUCLEAR ARMED SUBMARINES TO
SEA, DOES HE DISPERSE NUCLEAR
BOMBERS, DOES HE CHANGE
PROTOCOLS IN THE COMMAND AND
CONTROL NETWORK.
THESE ARE THINGS THAT ARE
KNOWABLE, SEEABLE, AND WE'LL
WATCH IT CAREFULLY.
>> DO YOU THINK HE IS A RATIONAL
ACTOR RIGHT NOW?
OR DO WE ASSUME HE MIGHT NOT BE?
>> WELL, I THINK THERE ARE
DISTURBING SIGNS, BUT ONE THING
THAT IS CLEAR WITHOUT DEBATE IS
THAT HE'S AN ISOLATED ACTOR.
HE HAS PLACED HIMSELF AT THE
VERY PINNACLE OF THIS AUTOCRATIC
REGIME.
I DON'T KNOW THAT HE HAS ANY
TRUSTED ADVISERS WHO ARE WILLING
TO GIVE HIM DISSENTING VIEWS.
AND THAT ALONE, THAT ISOLATION
AT THE TOP, IS DANGEROUS.
>> SO, THIS IS WHAT YOU CAN'T
HELP BUT WONDER, YOU KNOW, THREE
OR FOUR DAYS AGO, THERE WAS
CONCERN, HEY, THESE SANCTIONS
MIGHT NOT BE TOUGH ENOUGH, IT
MIGHT NOT STRANG IT WILL RUSSIAN
ECONOMY ENOUGH, IT MIGHT NOT
MOVE PUTIN.
NOW THERE SEEMS TO BE A REVERSE
FEAR, WAIT A MINUTE, HE'S REALLY
FEELING CORNERED, WHERE THE
UKRAINIANS HAVE BEEN A MUCH
TOUGHER RAENS AND THE ECONOMY IS
GETTING CHOKED OFF, OH, AND BY
THE WAY, THIS TURNED OUT TO BE
UNPOPULAR AT HOME.
IT'S THAT FEELING OF FEELING
CORNERED AND HUMILIATED.
WHAT'S THE EXIT RAMP FOR HIM
NOW?
>> WELL, IT'S UNCLEAR.
HE'S BURNED MOST OF THE EXIT
RAMPS THAT MIGHT RELY ON
DIPLOMACY.
IT'S QUITE CLEAR THAT GIVEN THE
EVENTS OF THE LAST WEEKS,
LEADING UP AND THROUGH THE
INVASION ITSELF, THAT NO ONE
WILL TRUST HIM.
HE'S LED HIMSELF INTO A PARIAH
STATE STATUS BOTH POLITICALLY
AND ECONOMICALLY, SO THERE ARE
NO CLEAR EXIT RAMPS NOW.
THIS WILL NOW BECOME THE ART OF
DIPLOMACY, AND THE ART OF TRYING
TO GIVE HIM A WAY OUT WHILE
KEEPING HIM UNDER THE PRESSURE
OF THE SANCTIONS AND THE
POLITICAL ISOLATION.
THAT'S A TOUGH CALL.
>> I'M CURIOUS, TO WALK THAT
LINE, SAY HELSINKI SAID TODAY WE
WANT FINLAND IN NATO AND THE
HELSINKI GOVERNMENT SAID WE'RE
APPLYING FORMALLY.
I HAD ADMIRAL STAVRIDIS ON
SAYING IF THEY APPLIED ON TODAY,
THEY SHOULD APPROVE IT BY
FRIDAY.
HOW FAST DO YOU THINK THE
PROCESS WOULD WORK WITH FINLAND?
AND, TWO, HOW WALKING THAT LINE
OF WOULD PUTIN VIEW THAT AS
ESCALATORY BY THE WEST EVEN IF
WE'RE DOING IT IN RESPONSE TO A
NATION IN DISTRESS?
>> WELL, THE QUESTION DOES START
RIGHTLY WITH THE FINNISH PEOPLE.
I UNDERSTAND THE FINNISH
PARLIAMENT, CONSIDERING THIS
TOPIC NOW, AND THAT'S
APPROPRIATE.
THAT'S WHERE ALL NATO MEMBERSHIP
QUESTIONS BEGIN.
IT MIGHT START ON A WEDNESDAY
AND ENDS ON A FRIDAY, BUT I
DON'T KNOW THAT THAT WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SAME
WEEK.
>> RIGHT.
>> SO IT MAY TAKE A BIT OF TIME
TO DELIBERATE.
BUT WHAT'S QUITE CLEAR, IF YOU
GO INTO THE WASHINGTON TREATY,
THE NATO TREATY FROM 1949,
ARTICLE X OUTLINES WHAT
QUALITIES A NEW MEMBER, AN
ASPIRING MEMBER MUST HAVE.
IT'S QUITE CLEAR THAT FINLAND
MEETS THOSE QUALIFICATIONS.
SO REALLY THE FIRST STEP BEGINS
WITH THE FINNISH PEOPLE AND
THEN, INTERESTINGLY, MAY WELL
SPILL OVER AND HAVE A SIMILAR
EFFECT IN SWEDEN NEXT DOOR.
>> YEAH.
ONE WOULD ASSUME IF ONE COMES