>> ALL RIGHT.
16 DAYS FROM ELECTION DAY, BUT
OF COURSE, WITH MILLIONS OF
VOTES ALREADY CAST, ELECTION
DAY’S ALREADY HERE AND HAS BEEN
FOR A WHILE. LET’S BRING IN THE ROUND TABLE
LET’S BRING IN THE ROUND TABLE
TO TALK ABOUT WHERE THINGS
STAND.
WE’LL START ON THE UPPER LEFT,
YOU SEE STEVE MITCHELL, POLLSTER AND POLITICAL CONSULTANT.
AND POLITICAL CONSULTANT.
MOVING CLOCK-WISE, JILL ALPER
FROM ALPER CONSULTANTS.
AND STEPHEN HENDERSON WDTE AND
KNOLL P FINLEY EDITORIAL DETROIT
NEWS.
LET’S START SINCE I FINISHED MY
CONVERSATIONS WITH GARY PETERS
AND JOHN JAMES.
LET ME START WITH YOU, NOLAN ON
THAT RACE.
IT’S INTERESTING THAT SO MUCH
MONEY IS POURING IN, INSANE HOW
MUCH, BUT INTERESTING TO WATCH
HOW TIGHT THIS RACE IS GIVEN
THAT WE’VE SEEN AN EXPANSION
LATELY OVER THE LAST FEW POLLS
OVER JOE BIDEN--
IN JOE BIDEN’S LEAD.
>> YEAH, I THINK THAT’S WHAT
MAKES IT SO FASCINATING.
JOHN JAMES IS--
SEEMS TO BE OUTPERFORMING DONALD
TRUMP, AND IF YOU LOOK ALL OVER
THE COUNTRY, IT’S REPUBLICAN
INCUMBENTS SENATORS WHO ARE
FACING A TOUGH TIME IN THIS
ELECTION WHO ARE IN TROUBLE AND
IF MANY OF YOU BELIEVE THE POLLS
AND THEY’VE BEEN ALL OVER THE
PLACE, THIS IS A VERY TIGHT RACE
AND I REALLY WOULDN’T HAVE
EXPECTED THAT, EVEN THOUGH AS
YOU SAID, ALMOST 100 MILLION
DOLLARS HAS BEEN SPENT HERE AND
WILL BE BY ELECTION DAY.
>> DEVIN: IT’S INSANE THE AMOUNT
OF MONEY THAT’S COMING IN.
THESE GUYS ARE ON TELEVISION,
CHANNEL 4 MORE THAN I AM EVERY
DAY, THAT’S FOR SURE.
BUT CLEARLY, I ALWAYS SAY ON
THIS PROGRAM, I QUOTE TIP O’NEIL
THAT ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL.
I DON’T BELIEVE THAT IN THIS
RACE.
ALL POLITICS NOW IS NATIONAL AND
THAT’S WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
HAPPEN IN THIS RACE, AREN’T WE?
>> OH, WELL, I THINK THAT IT’S
STILL PRETTY LOCAL THOUGH IN
TERMS OF WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT IN
THE UNITED STATES SENATOR.
AND THAT’S WHY RIGHT NOW GARY
PETERS IS OUTPERFORMING JOHN
JAMES, HE STILL HAS TO MAKE IT
OVER THE FINISH LINE, BUT
DESPITE THE NATIONALIZATION OF
THE SPENDING, PART OF THE REASON
WHY REPUBLICANS ARE DOING THAT
IS THEY HAVE TO CLAIM MORE SEATS
BECAUSE THE DEMOCRATS HAVE THEM
ON THE RUN.
GOT THEM IN THE RUN IN THEIR OWN
STATES.
WE’RE WINNING IN PLACES LIKE
ARIZONA, COLORADO, NORTH
CAROLINA.
SO THERE’S A LOT OF MONEY IN THE
PROCESS NOW AND THEY’RE JUST
ABLE TO SPEND MORE MONEY IN MORE
PLACES.
THE VOTERS THAT STILL HAVE TO
SORT OF CHECK IN HERE AND GARY
HAS A LITTLE BIT OF
FRESHMANITIS, IF YOU WILL, HE’S
NOT BEEN, YOU KNOW, A REGULAR
FIXTURE, LONG STORY SHORT, HE’S
AHEAD 11 POINTS AMONG
INDEPENDENTS, 8 POINTS AMONG
WOMEN AND THOSE GROUPS ARE
PRETTY DECIDEDLY VOTING FOR THE
DEMOCRATS.
>> DEVIN: STEVE MITCHELL THOUGH,
IMAGINE A SCENARIO WHERE
KENTUCKY AND NORTH CAROLINA FLIP
FROM RED TO BLUE AND MICHIGAN
FLIPS FROM BLUE TO RED.
>> THAT WOULD BE PRETTY UNUSUAL
SITUATION.
I SUSPECT THAT A COUPLE OF THOSE
ARE NOT GOING TO HAPPEN, BUT I
THINK THIS IS AN INTERESTING
RACE.
RIGHT NOW THE REAL CLEAR
POLITICS AVERAGES HAVE PETERS UP
BY 6%, BUT AS RECENTLY AS A FEW
DAYS AGO, YOU HAD TWO POLLS OUT,
ONE THAT PETERS PLUS 1 AND
ANOTHER PETERS PLUS 3.
SO THE POLLING HAS BEEN, AS IT
WAS FOUR YEARS AGO, ALL OVER THE
BOARD AND WE’LL HAVE TO SEE AT
THE END OF THE DAY ULTIMATELY
WHO IS GOING TO WIN THIS THING.
IT’S GOING TO BE AN EXCITING
NIGHT, I THINK, FOR PETERS AND
JAMES AS THEY WAIT IT OUT.
>> DEVIN: STEPHEN, WHAT DECIDES
THIS?
>> I MEAN, I THINK IT’S, YOU
KNOW, THE LATE BREAKING VOTERS
THE INDEPENDENTS, THE UNDECIDEDS
WILL MAKE THIS DECISION IF YOU
THINK ABOUT IT AS JILL SAID,
THOSE VOTERS SEEM THEY’RE GOING
TO VOTE DEMOCRATIC IN LARGER
NUMBERS THAN REPUBLICAN.
PART OF THE REASON I THINK
THEY’RE SITTING OUT AT THIS
POINT IS AGAIN, THIS IS PETERS’
FIRST REELECTION CAMPAIGN, IF
YOU LOOK AT THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE
BEEN IN THE SENATE A LONG TIME
AND LOOK BACK TO THAT FIRST RACE
WHERE THEY GO BACK TO VOTERS.
IT’S TOUGHER THAN IT IS IN LATER
YEARS ONCE PEOPLE GET USED TO
YOU BEING IN THE SEAT.
HE’S HAD A TOUGHER TIME THAN
ANTICIPATED AND LOOK, LET’S GIVE
CREDIT TO JOHN JAMES AT LEAST
FOR THE CAMPAIGN THAT HE’S RUN.
I THINK THERE’S SOME DEEP
PROBLEMS WITH THE SUBSTANCE OF
WHAT HE’S TALKING ABOUT.
HE DOESN’T HAVE A LOT OF ANSWERS
FOR SOME OF THE QUESTIONS THAT
HE’S BEEN ASKING, BUT HIS ADS
ARE REALLY GOOD AND I THINK
THEY’RE VERY EFFECTIVE AT
CONNECTING WITH VOTERS ON THE
ISSUES THAT THEY’RE THINKING
ABOUT AND HE’S RUNNING A BETTER
CAMPAIGN THIS YEAR THAN HE DID
TWO YEARS AGO WHEN HE LOST TO
DEBBY STABENOW.
SO, THE COMBINATION OF THINGS
HAVE MADE IT CLOSER.
I DON’T THINK THAT JOHN JAMES
ENDS UP BEATING GARY PETERS
UNLESS SOMETHING STRANGE HAPPENS
BETWEEN NOW AND ELECTION DAY,
BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.
>> DEVIN: LET’S ZOOM BACK OUT TO
THE BROADER PICTURE AND JILL,
IT’S FUNNY.
ON ONE HAND SHALL --
JOSH, ONLY--
GOSH, ONLY TWO WEEKS TO ELECTION
DAY, IT ALL SEEMS VERY, VERY
FLUID.
YOU’VE BEEN THINKING ABOUT
THINGS THAT COULD HAPPEN THAT
COULD SWING THINGS ONE WAY OR
THE OTHER.
>> SURE, YOU KNOW, IN 2020 EVERY
DAY WAS LIKE DOG YEARS, RIGHT?
IT’S SEVEN YEARS LONG.
[LAUGHTER]
>> SO, WE SEE NEWS LAST NIGHT
OF RUDY GIULIANI, YOU KNOW,
HAVING BEEN IN RUSSIA POKING
AROUND, TRYING TO CREATE SOME
OCTOBER SURPRISE.
YOU KNOW, AKIN TO MAYBE WHAT THE
RUSSIANS DID IN THE TAIL END OF
THE FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION.
SO WHO KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN
WITH THAT, BUT I THINK THAT
FOLKS KNOW WHO PAY REALLY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS.
YOU’VE GOT THE TRUMP-BIDEN
DEBATE THAT’S THE LAST ONE
COMING UP IN NASHVILLE.
YOU’VE GOT COVID AND WHAT WILL
THE IMPACT OF COVID BE ON
PEOPLE’S MINDSET ABOUT VOTING.
IT’S SAFE, KEEP CALM AND VOTE.
LOTS OF WAYS TO VOTE.
AND THE STATUS OF THE RELIEF,
THE COVID RELIEF COMING OUT OF
WASHINGTON, WILL THERE BE A
DECISION ON THAT AND PROGRESS.
AND SPEED OF THE COUNTING,
ACTUALLY ELECTION NIGHT AND
BEYOND.
>> DEVIN: SURE.
>> WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN TERMS OF
HOW LONG DOES THAT TAKE AND IS
THERE ANY CHICANERY.
>> DEVIN: STEVE MITCHELL, WHAT
IS LAYING OUT THERE THAT YOU’LL
BE WATCHING FOR THAT COULD
CHANGE EVERYTHING OR DO YOU
THINK YOU KNOW WHERE WE’RE
HEADED?
>> YOU KNOW, THE PROBLEM DONALD
TRUMP HAS IS THAT, YOU KNOW, HE
DOESN’T HAVE A LOT OF RUNWAY
LEFT AS HE’S TRYING TO LAND HIS
PLANE.
THE ONLY REAL OPPORTUNITY HE HAS
TO CHANGE THINGS RIGHT NOW IS
THE LAST DEBATE, BUT THE LAST
DEBATE IS COMING UP VERY CLOSE
TO ELECTION DAY, BUT I WAS
LOOKING AT SOME POLLING ON
FRIDAY AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE
POLLING, ACTUALLY IN MICHIGAN,
DONALD TRUMP WAS DOING 2% BETTER
AT THIS TIME--
OR HE IS DOING 2% BETTER THIS
TIME THAN HE WAS DOING IN 2016
AND NATIONALLY THE SAME THING.
IF YOU TAKE A LOOK AT REAL CLEAR
POLITICS AVERAGE FOUR YEARS AGO
AT EXACTLY THIS TIME, DONALD
TRUMP WAS FURTHER BEHIND THAN HE
IS TODAY.
SO AS BAD AS THE SITUATION
LOOKS, AND I THINK IT DOES NOT
LOOK GOOD FOR TRUMP AT THIS
POINT, HE CAME BACK FROM A
BIGGER MARGIN FOUR YEARS AGO
THAN RIGHT NOW.
SO THERE’S STILL A LOT OF TIME
LEFT AND AS JILL AND NOLAN AND
STEVE SO ELOQUENTLY SAID, THIS
IS A WILD ELECTION WHERE WE’RE
LIVING EVERY DAY AS A DOG YEAR,
MUCH OF THE YEAR BEING A DOG
YEAR.
SO, IT’S REALLY AT THIS POINT
POTENTIALLY STILL UP FOR GRABS.
>> DEVIN: WELL, AND I’M SURE
MOST OF AMERICA’S POLLSTERS ARE
HOPING THAT THEY HAVE
RECALIBRATED AND LEARNED A
LESSON FROM THE WAY THEY DID
THINGS FOUR YEARS AGO.
NOLAN, YOUR THOUGHTS WITH WHERE
YOU STAND.
I’M LOOKING AT THE CANDIDATES’
INTEREST IN MICHIGAN.
IF YOU BELIEVE THE POLLS THAT
DONALD TRUMP IS DOWN 9, 10, 11%,
IN A TYPICAL YEAR, TYPICAL
ELECTION YEAR, THE TRUMP
CAMPAIGN OR THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN
BOTH WILL BE SORT OF BACKING OFF
HERE, BACKING UP, AND MOVING TO
A STATE WHERE THEY’RE MORE
COMPETITIVE.
THAT’S WHAT HAPPENED TO JOHN
MCCAIN IN 2008 AND THAT RACE WAS
TIGHTER THAN THIS ONE ACCORDING
TO THE POLLS, BUT THEY MUST BE
SEEING SOMETHING THAT THE
POLLSTERS AREN’T BECAUSE TRUMP
WAS HERE IN MICHIGAN SATURDAY.
BIDEN WAS HERE FRIDAY.
THEY’RE STILL -- THEIR AD
SPENDING IS STILL VERY HIGH
HERE.
SO THEY MUST BE SEEING SOMETHING
ABOUT MICHIGAN IN TERMS OF THE
SOLIDITY OF THE VOTE THAT MAKES
THEM THINK THEY HAVE TO STAY
HERE AND FIGHT.
>> DEVIN: HE WOULD BE LOATHE TO
GIVE UP HIS CHANCES ON MICHIGAN,
STEPHEN, GIVEN HOW IMPORTANT IT
WAS THE LAST TIME AROUND TO HIM.
>> YEAH, AND HE’S GOT TO HAVE
THIS STATE OR ONE OF THE OTHER
TWO THAT HE FLIPPED THE LAST
TIME IN ORDER TO WIN AND YOU’VE
GOT TO HOLD ONTO THE OTHER
STATES THAT HE HAD LAST TIME.
THAT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THAT’S
GOING TO HAPPEN.
I THINK THE STORY BETWEEN NOW
AND ELECTION DAY IS TURNOUT AND
IT IS WHETHER THIS IS GOING TO
LOOK LIKE 2018, AS DEMOCRATS
HOPE IT WILL OR WHETHER IT WILL
LOOK MORE LIKE 16 AND HAND IN
HAND WITH THAT IS THE VOTER
SUPPRESSION EFFORT THAT’S GOING
ON, WHICH IS MASSIVE IN STATES
ALL OVER THE COUNTRY, THE IDEA
OF TRYING TO DISCOURAGE PEOPLE
FROM VOTING, MAKING IT HARDER
FOR THEM TO VOTE, QUESTIONING
THE VALIDITY OF BALLOTS, ALL OF
THAT KIND OF THING, THAT IS PART
AND PARCEL OF THE REPUBLICAN
STRATEGY AT THIS POINT.
I THINK IT’S SHAMEFUL THE IDEA
THAT TO WIN, YOU HAVE TO
DISCOURAGE THE COUNTING OF THE
OTHER SIDE’S SUPPORT, BUT THAT’S
GOING TO BE THE STORY THAT FIVE,
10, 15 YEARS THEY TALK ABOUT
WITH THIS ELECTION IS, IS THIS
LIKE THE 1960’S?
OR THE 1930’S?
OR ARE WE IN 2020 AND WE’RE
GOING TO LET PEOPLE VOTE,
ENCOURAGE THEM TO VOTE AND COUNT
THEM WHEN THEY DO.
>> DEVIN: HOPEFULLY THE 5 TO 15
YEARS WILL NOT BE HOW LONG IT
TAKES TO COUNT THE VOTES.
[LAUGHTER]
>> THANK YOU ALL.
>> IT MIGHT.
>> DEVIN: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR
THE CONVERSATION, GANG, ALWAYS
GREAT TO SEE ALL OF YOU.
STAFF SAY AND BE WELL.