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What’s cyclical? I’m Mr. Beat...I think
You may have heard this famous quote “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned
to repeat it.” The philosopher and writer George Santayana is credited with it, and
that quote is a big reason why we have the cliche “history repeats itself.” But does
history really repeat itself?
Well since I mostly teach American political history, let’s look at it to answer this quesiton.
First, I just gotta bring up the Schlesingers and their cyclical theory. Historian Arthur
M. Schlesinger, and his son, um….also Arthur M. Schlesinger, developed it and promoted
it. Their cyclical theory says that the mood of the country has historically gone back
and forth between liberalism and conservatism, kind of like a pendulum.
Now remember my political spectrum video and how words like liberalism and conservatism
are incredibly misleading? Well, the Schlesingers defined what they meant by “liberal” and "conservative."
When they said "liberal" they meant
that democracy was increasing
you should focus on the wrongs of the many
that there was a priority on public purpose and human rights
when the welfare of people is seen as more significant, when experimentation and reform
and public activism is encouraged.
According to the Schlesingers, "conservative" means
containing democracy, that you can't trust all the masses.
It means when the rights of the few are prioritized.
That you should do what's best for private interests and protect property rights, when there is more fear of power being with the masses.
And basically more respect to
the hierarchy.
It prioritizes sober reflection and appreciation for tradition.
Anyway, so the Schlesingers argued that the United States would go through this liberal
period, then conservative period, then liberal period, then conservative period...back and
forth, back and forth on repeat throughout history. Each phase would wither out, which
then led to the opposite phase.
The Schlesingers argued the first phase of American history was 1765 to 1787. This is
basically from the time of the Stamp Act Congress, or first gathering of colonial representatives
to unite in protest against British taxation, and the ratification of the U.S. Constitution.
This was a liberal phase due, you know, the colonists breaking away from Britain and forming
their own republic, with a very limited government.
The Schlesingers said the second phase was from 1787 to 1801, from the ratification of
the U.S. Constitution to when Federalists lost power in the executive branch. According
to them, it was a conservative phase since Hamiltonian federalism dominated, and so did merchants.
The third phase, between 1801 and 1816, was a return to liberalism, as Jeffersonian democracy
took root. 1816 marks the beginning of the fourth phase and a return to conservatism,
as after The War of 1812 the country raised tariff protections and the federal government
took more control with the establishment of the second national bank and building roads
and canals. 1829 marks the beginning of the fifth phase and a return to liberalism, after
Jacksonian democracy takes root, and for the first time pretty much every man in the country
can vote. It’s also a time when people turn against federal aid to big businesses. The
sixth phase, from 1841 to 1861, marks the rise in power of the Whig Party and is another
return to conservatism. This is a time when slaveholders get a lot more power in the federal
government and the U.S. military gets more aggressive acquiring new land through wars
and treaties.
The seventh phase, from 1861 to 1869, is what I call the Radical Republican era. It is a
return to liberalism in which we see the abolition of slavery, the ratification of the 14th and
15th Amendments, and other Reconstruction policies to help the newly freed slaves. From
1869 to 1901, in the eighth phase, we see a long period of conservative rule, with big
businesses having dominating influence over Washington D.C., the return of high tariffs,
imperialism, and holding onto the gold standard. Liberalism returns with the ninth phase, from
1901 to 1919, and is basically the Progressive Era, although I’d argue progressive reforms
really had a lot of momentum in the 1890s. Here’s where we get much more democracy
with the 17th and 19th Amendments, referendums, recall elections, and initiatives, which is
when ordinary citizens were generally first able to originate legislation. Conservatism
returns with the tenth phase, from 1919 to 1931. Business interests once again are prioritized
during this time. And then of course the country swiftly swings
back in the other direction when the Great Depression hits. The eleventh phase, a famous
liberal phase actually, lasted from 1931 to 1947, and is mostly associated with Franklin
Roosevelt’s New Deal policies.
Now, I should pause right here to tell you that Schlesinger Sr. first published his cyclical
theory during this period, and so he had to make predictions about the next cycle.
He predicted that after 1947, a conservative, twelfth phase would follow until approximately
the early 1960s. That conservative time featured the U.S. once again becoming aggressive with
their military abroad and valuing tradition more. And the thirteenth phase indeed seemed
to come in the 1960s, with the country again taking a liberal turn with lots of government
programs to help the poor, Civil Rights legislation, and the backlash against the Vietnam War and
distrust of government in general.
Schlesinger Sr. lived to see the beginnings of this phase, but after he died in 1965,
his son, Schelsinger Jr., kept cyclical theory going. Schlesinger Jr. said the thirteenth
phase ended around 1978, when the country once again took a conservative turn with the
rise of the Reagan Revolution, deregulation, and supply side economics. Writing in 1999,
after realizing the country was still in that same conservative phase even though it should
have predictably ended in the early 1990s, he speculated that conservatism was still
dominating due to the rise of computers and the internet. Also, Schlesinger Jr. said there
hadn’t been a major national trauma for a while.
Well, that national trauma came on September 11, 2001. However, by that time Schlesinger
Jr. seemed to forget about those cycles he and his father had referred to before. After
9/11, the United States arguably remained in a conservative phase. In the final years
before his death in 2007, Schlesinger Jr. mostly just brought up his fears about how
divided the country had become.
So what about today, in 2020? Well, I would argue we’re still in a fairly conservative
period in American history, although there are signs that we may be about to enter another liberal phase. Based on the
Schelsingers’ cyclical theory, that would make the current phase the longest conservative phase, or any phase for that matter, in American history yet.
It’s lasted longer than I’ve been alive.
It’s important to bring up that the Schlesingers weren’t the only historians who supported
a cyclical theory with regards to American history. For example, there’s this dude
named Samuel P. Huntington, and his periods of creedal passion. He argued that there are
times throughout American history where people get fired up and then rise up to bring dramatic
government reforms.
There’s also Stephen Skowronek and his Presidential Cycles. There’s Frank Klingberg’s Foreign
Policy Cycles. Heck, both of those deserve entirely separate videos. But my point is,
there seems to be different cycles of historians who bring up cycles in history.
You may have heard this famous quote “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned
to repeat it.” The philosopher and writer George Santayana is credited with it, and
that quote is a big reason why we have the cliche “history repeats itself.” But does
history really repeat itself?
Wait a second, didn’t I already say all that at the beginning of the video?
Anyway, here’s probably a better quote: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it
often rhymes.” Patterns and cycles do emerge because humans often are not in control as
much as we think we are. Just like how individuals are constantly acting and reacting in predictable
ways, so do societies. Also, the technology changes, but usually human behavior does not.
This is indeed why many historians can predict at least some of the big stuff that will happen
in the future.
And so, does history really repeat itself? Sometimes, but usually not. But I’m starting to repeat
myself here, so what do YOU think? Let me know in the comments.
This video is once again sponsored by Newsvoice. Newsvoice is my favorite place to look at
the news. It’s a free app that is breaking people out of those news bubbles and is revolutionizing
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deeper, and try Newsvoice by clicking the link to download it in the description and
pinned comment. Thanks to Newsvoice for sponsoring this video.
A special shout out to Denis Blinov, who helped me with the research for this video. And
to all my American history folks out there, do YOU also think we are entering a new cycle
in American history? By the way, I think the rise of populism in recent years makes
me think we're in a new Populist Movement. Call it Populist Movement, 2.0. Hey if you’re watching this in
100 years, please let me know if I’m right. Thanks for watching!