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David Modell today we have a special
guest as names mr. Gary Christenson you
might call him the deviant investor
that's a great name and a great website
deviant investor calm and I'll be asking
about that as well mr. Christensen is a
market expert and although just a quick
disclaimer you know we are not
registered investment advisors we're not
telling you what to buy what to sell so
make sure you read carefully the
disclaimer at the beginning of this and
every video but mr. Christensen has
plenty of expertise in commodities gold
silver the markets and other things that
we're going to tap into his insight
today so first of all mr. Christensen
thank you so much for joining me today
certainly enjoy the chance to chat yeah
absolutely this is a real treat for me
and I want to just start with your
background if that's okay with you
because your background involves not
just finance although you know 30 plus
years of financial you know study and
expertise but also a background in
physics is that true that's true I have
a bachelor's degree in physics and I
went on to graduate school in physics I
passed the qualifying exams for my PhD
but I did not finish the dissertation so
I don't actually have the PhD I have
what they call all but dissertation and
then from there I realized I didn't want
to do that anymore and decided well I
need to do something to keep myself
alive so I decided to become a cab
driver as a temporary thing in downtown
Seattle which is really a basically
really dumb choice and and from the hair
I decided that accounting was made sense
so I started learning accounting and
eventually I realized I needed it leave
Seattle and just go do something
different so i went to alaska for 20
years
and in fact interestingly enough 40
years ago today was the day I arrived in
Alaska in Barrow which is the farthest
north point in Alaska that's 330 miles
north of the Arctic Circle and there I
gradually became business manager for
the school district in Barrow and then I
retired from that and since then I've
been more or less in Texas in Colorado
and various other places watching
markets and investing in and trading hmm
wow that that's fascinating mr.
Christianson I should mention is also a
prolific author author of several books
including Fort Knox down gold value in
gold prices 1971 to 2021 he has also
published or written articles for 321
goal.com peak prosperity calm and others
but I'm just curious about the the fact
that you did your graduate works work in
physics abd as they say all but
dissertation does does that type of
learning come to bear in in your
investing and trading well I see things
in terms of data and mathematics and
numbers I don't see things in terms of
of what I consider more soft
interpretations I would i want to see
numbers and data that tell me something
so i like to look at hundred year trends
i'd like to look at fifty or trends i
tried i created a model of the gold
market in and that i published and that
goal value gold prices 71 to 2021 and
that's an outgrowth of my understanding
of mathematics and physics and i can
briefly discuss that but the gist of
that is the the gold market you know
everyone looks at the gold market and
says well it's like the stock market
notice what it's going to do and I'm my
point was actually you can if you look
at a broad enough perspective you can
evaluate the gold market from a macro
economic point of view and create a
reasonable expectation for the price of
gold based on three variables that have
nothing to do with gold and the three
variables our national debt which is the
most important the price of crude oil
and the price of the S&P 500 index
put those together into a complex
formula and outcomes reasonable
projections for the price of gold and
that's what that whole book was about
was just defining that and the point I
was trying to make was that we can get
distracted by news we can look what we
can get overwhelmed by oh they're doing
this to us they're doing that to us the
government's doing this the Federal
Reserve is doing that but in the big
picture and this is what I think is
important in the big picture look at the
long-term trends debt is going up
outrageously the stock market goes up
right along with it is the stock market
really getting higher or is it just the
value of the money is getting less and
the truth is the value of the money is
much less we're devaluing as we go and
consequently the price of gold the
prices silver the price of crude oil the
price of the SP the price of Dow etc etc
goes up along with it because the dollar
is being devalued that's the critical
point yeah absolutely your latest book
by gold save gold and I'm going to put
that in the description as well as your
website and contact information buy gold
save gold the 10k logic what is the 10k
logic well I'm trying to say that I
think gold has a very reasonable chance
of giving to ten thousand dollars not
tomorrow not this year probably not
until 2020 two or so possibly even a
couple of years after that but if you
look at a hundred years of data if you
look at fifty years of data if you look
at the last 20 years of data if you look
at the trends for the good for gold for
crude oil for the SP whatever you see
exponential increases exponential
increases with obvious breaks of
collapses and crashes here and there and
then bubble markets moving up and so
forth just project that the price of
gold must go much higher we're not going
to stop deficit spending we're not going
to stop deficits we're not going to stop
national debt going through insane
numbers so the dollar will devalue and
the price of gold will go up that's the
basic tenets of the book is it you can
reasonably expect price of goal to go
substantially higher and $10,000 sounds
crazy but it's really not and that's the
point that I'm trying to make in the
book and then I you
a number of different examples for that
a number of different interpretations
and ways of looking at it to suggest
that ten-thousand-dollar gold is not at
all unreasonable that's the point of the
book now if somebody wanted to invest in
gold but they did not want to bother
with the storage ensuring it you know
delivery all that stuff maybe gld or if
they're into silver SLV ETFs is that a
good way to go um that is an okay way to
go for a traitor my personal preference
would be to do something else there are
a number of other alternatives that
probably are a little more reliable in
my opinion and this is just an opinion
but if you trade CEF which is a
closed-end gold fund that is actually
closed in Canadian fund that's partially
gold and partially silver they actually
have the gold and the silver in their
vaults and it's real to the best of my
knowledge gld and SLV are a little more
iffy and they depend and in fact I
believe you can read in their prospectus
as and I depend upon the attorneys to do
this but you can read in their
perspectives that they may use
derivatives and paper gold and paper
silver to back this I think those are
good trading vehicles I wouldn't
consider them a really long term
investment because what if some of those
gold and silver bars that are supposedly
there really aren't I that's why I like
something like CEF where it's really
there sprout has a sprout out of Canada
has a number of eight ETFs and so forth
there are a lot of other possibilities
and I'm just saying be careful with the
two major ones gld and SLV although I do
like them for trading right absolutely I
wanted to talk about your website
deviant investor that's a fascinating
name to questions if I may what can
people expect to see at deviant investor
calm and what services do you offer to
people who visit deviant investor calm
well frankly I don't offer any services
i'm not selling anything you know other
than a little bittle bit of advertising
which pays me a few dollars a month on
the website not selling anything not
really offering services I'm just trying
to talk about the topics gold silver the
economy and central banking those are
the only topics I'm interested in I
publish an article a week roughly
sometimes two of my own and then
sometimes one or two or three of from
others that I like so there's not a lot
of activity on the site I mean not a lot
of publications on the site it's just
there for educational purposes clearly
with the agenda from of encouraging
people to consider actively considered
gold and silver as investments and to be
careful of and suspicious of central
banking and the stories that come out of
Wall Street the Federal Reserve sure and
I'm looking at your articles on the
website right now people really should
visit it just for the you've got you
know you got your articles about like
you said gold silver the economy in
general central banking all kinds of
goodies on here on your article titles
include Dow euphoria the return of
stagflation major markets of turning
points are we at a turning point what's
2017 going to look like in the long term
well I have my opinions there are only
opinions but these are the things i look
at we have a bond market that's had a
35-year bull market it peaked the bond
market peaked which means interest rates
fell to a minimum roughly July August of
2016 so for 35 years the bond market
kept going up for 35 years interest
rates kept declining some people have
evaluated that as multiple generational
lows and interest rates some people have
said 500 year low and interest rates
regardless it's a very deep low and the
concern I have is that if you've had 35
years of declining interest rates and
now you've got indication that interest
rates are rising I worry that that we've
got many years of rising interest rates
ahead of us or at least
slowly increasing interest rates ahead
of us so I'd be a little worried about
bonds at this point the stock market is
at all-time highs everybody is euphoric
I mean what could go wrong and of course
when you start asking what could go
wrong and what's how wonderful is it
it's time to consider looking at other
alternatives if you look at gold and
silver they've come down a long way
whereas the stock market is a very high
very high level measured by any number
of evaluations whether its
price-to-earnings or any number of other
things it's high but the thing that I
think about the stock market that's
important is let's not take my opinion
let's take the opinion of John P husman
PhD who is writes a printer you know a
regular column he's the head of house
Minh funds this man's brilliant here's
what he says we expect sp500 annual
nominal total returns to average just
point six percent over the coming 12
year period even if underlying economic
growth accelerates to historically
normal rates wow you know that's a
pretty impressive statement and this is
an extremely brilliant man who basically
says we're not going to have any gain in
the SP for the next 10 to 12 years then
he says and I think this is really
important when it comes to thinking
about pensions and our estimate of the
prospective total return on a
conventional portfolio mix of sixty
percent stocks thirty percent bonds and
ten percent t-bills has never been lower
given that that we expect the returns on
the typical pension plan mix to be low
terribly low and that they're projecting
say seven half eight percent return not
going to get it pension plans are going
to be failing if pension plans are
failing if the stock market's at an
all-time high you can expect essentially
no growth in the stock market for a
decade which means you could pretty well
plan on some Corrections some probably
fairly major Corrections he talks about
a fifty percent correction which means
to me that it's time for a cyclic
transition from bonds and stocks into
gold and silver and other commodities of
course the ones I focus on our goal
over but that just means to me the
timing is such and I'm not saying this
day or this week but in this general
period of time it's time to phase out of
paper assets and moving into more real
assets sure wanted to talk about silver
I like silver a lot and you have some
interesting statements here on your
website bold statements if you will but
I like them the inevitable long-term
direction of silver prices is upward and
the risk of lower prices is small what's
the evidence well okay if you look at
the price of silver going back a hundred
years and I have and you put a graph of
the take a graph of that which I have
some of the various places on my website
as well as in the upcoming book you can
see that silver has gone up
exponentially since well you know
roughly 1913 when we started doing the
Federal Reserve stuff if you look at the
price of silver and I've got it here you
I can see a compound rate from January
of 1917 to January of 2017 a hundred
years a compound rate of a little over
four percent per year each and every
year as the average trend on that silver
price it's currently low compared to its
trend and it's currently way low
compared to its high that have reached
six years ago this month you know to
april 2011 reached almost 50 bucks now
it's down to like 18 and change silver
has of substantial move up if we're
going to devalue the dollar as we will
if we're going to keep the increasing
debt as we will if we're going to keep
massively spending more money than we
have as we will then you can expect gold
and silver to re increase in value
substantially the Dow has already had
all its move the bonds of edits move
it's time for commodities to move up and
that's why I think silver is a surefire
winner and also a certain to scare the
daylights out of you as silver goes high
and low because it will fly higher and
crash lower than anything else around
interesting volatility and silver I'm
looking forward to that as a trader for
sure
I know your time is important to you
just one more question if I may on the
traditional mix of let's say SP why TLT
and gld that old formula does that still
work in today's markets I don't think so
I don't think so i think i dub if you're
going to take that formula i would
certainly decrease the emphasis on
stocks and bonds and increase the
emphasis on gold again because we're at
all-time highs on stocks and bonds and
we're not on gold so why not shaped a
little more in favor of gold a little
more defensive can't blame you
especially in this market situation that
we find ourselves in mr. gary
christenson if people want to contact
you to find out more information is the
best way to do it through your website
or how can they how can they get in
touch with you certainly it's available
on my website i've just got a gmail
address there if they want to buy my
book gets on amazon it's that's listed
on the website also i just encourage
people to come and look at DV an
investor for a slightly more a different
approach to things not a non-standard
it's a non-standard Wall Street View I'm
not taking the wall street view not
particularly in favor of central banks I
do like looking at hard assets that
don't have any counterparty risk so come
to the website and just read what I have
to say and then move on and evaluate for
yourself I totally agree there's there's
so much free to the public information
here on deviant investor calm buy gold
safe gold sounds good to me i'm going to
add silver into the mix too if i may at
the 10k logic that's mr. Christensen's
latest book available on amazon and
check out the website as well mr.
Christensen I really appreciate your
time today this has been very inspiring
to me thank you very much awesome thanks
a lot
you