After a brief but bloody conflict, on 9 November 2020 Armenia and Azerbaijan
reached a peace agreement over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
While Azerbaijan hailed the deal as an end to the issue,
in truth it raises a number of important questions.
So, how was the agreement reached? What exactly does it say?
And what does it really mean for the future?
[MUSIC]
Hello. My name is James Ker-Lindsay. Welcome to the channel.
If you're new here, I look at international relations, secession and the origins of countries.
The outbreak of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh,
on the 27 September 2020, raised the prospect
of a serious and protracted conflict in the South Caucasus.
However, in the end, the war proved to be much shorter than many expected.
Following swift Azerbaijan advances into Armenian held territory,
fighting came to an end after just six weeks.
On the evening of 9 November 2020, the news broke that Russia had brokered
a peace agreement between the sides.
But while the deal may put an end to the fighting,
it also raises a number of questions about the future of Nagorno-Karabakh.
So, what is the agreement? And what happens next?
I won't go into detailed background on the conflict as I've already covered it
in another video. I've put a link above and in the description below.
However, by way of a brief summary, the dispute centres on the region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Predominantly inhabited by ethnic Armenians,
it was part of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic within theUSSR.
However, as the Soviet Union, broke apart it declared independence.
This sparked a bitter war between Armenia and Azerbaijan that eventually left Armenian forces
in control of Nagorno-Karabakh and a number of other Azerbaijani districts surrounding it.
In the years that followed, efforts were made to resolve the issue under a process led by Russia,
the United States and France a set of principles were laid down for resolving the problem.
These included the return of districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan's control;
the return of internally displaced persons; a land link between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia;
and an agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh's future status that would be confirmed by a referendum.
In addition, security measures would be put in place to underpin any deal.
Despite this apparent agreement on the broad terms of a settlement,
efforts to reach a final deal went nowhere.
Instead, it became increasingly likely that there would be a return to war.
As Azerbaijan dramatically increased its military spending,
there were fears that it was planning to retake the territories by force.
In the meantime, as well as frequent small-scale incidents between
Armenian and Azerbaijani forces, there were several major confrontations.
In 2016, the two countries had a brief four-day conflict that left several hundred dead.
Then, in July 2020, another serious skirmish occurred.
However, on the 27 September 2020, full-scale fighting erupted between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Although the sides dispute who started it, once it was underway it soon became clear
that Azerbaijan had decided to use the opportunity to retake territory.
In the month that followed, Azerbaijan moved swiftly to retake most territory to the south
of Nagorno-Karabakh and by the start of November it was clear that Armenia was losing badly
as Azerbaijani forces moved into Nagorno-Karabakh proper and took the region's second largest town.
By this point, it seemed Azerbaijan was on the verge of overrunning Armenian forces and
retaking the rest of Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding districts.
It was at this point, on the evening of Monday, 9 November
that Russia announced that it had brokered an agreement between the leaders of Armenia
and Azerbaijan that would bring the fighting to an immediate end.
So, what was agreed?
Without question, the most significant aspect of the deal is that Azerbaijan regains control of
all the districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh.
In addition to those retaken in the war,
by 1 December Armenia will hand over any territory still under its control.
Not only that, but Azerbaijan will also keep control of any areas within Nagorno-Karabakh
that had a captured prior to the ceasefire.
In addition, Armenia will now withdraw all its armed forces from Azerbaijan.
Crucially, Armenia will still retain a direct transport link with Nagorno-Karabakh
and Azerbaijan will guarantee the safety of people and goods traveling in both directions.
In return, and in a hugely significant development for Azerbaijan, a road will now be built across
Armenian territory to connect the main part of Azerbaijan with its western exclave, Nakhchivan.
This is hugely important as this will now end
Azerbaijan's previous reliance on air links to the exclave or a road link through Iran.
In terms of other provisions, all internally displaced persons will
now be allowed to return to their properties in Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas - a
process that will be overseen by the office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.
The sides also agreed to an exchange of prisoners of war
and other detainees and the return of the bodies of those killed.
Importantly, the agreement will be guaranteed by Russia.
Almost 2 000 russian troops will be stationed along the ceasefire line.
They will stay there for an initial period of five years with an
automatic extension for another five years.
In addition, Russian troops and border guards will also control the corridors between Armenia
and Nagorno-Karabakh and between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan.
So, what does all this mean?
Without a doubt, this is a huge victory for Azerbaijan.
Having been defeated in the early 1990s, a source of deep national humiliation, it will
feel that it has restored its honour - not only by taking the territories around Nagorno-Karabakh,
but also by making such significant encroachments within Nagorno-Karabakh itself.
Indeed, in the immediate aftermath of the news,
the Azerbaijan President, Ilham Aliyev, took to television to give a rousing speech declaring
that the districts around Nagorno-Karabakh and even Karabakh itself had been liberated.
The fact that it also secured a land link to Nakhchivan, a concession specifically
demanded by the president, only serves to emphasise the scale of the Azerbaijani win.
Certainly, Azerbaijanis greeted the news of the agreement with jubilation.
Of course, some may wonder why Azerbaijan didn't press on and
retake all the territory if it had such a commanding position.
There would seem to be three good reasons why it didn't.
For a start, while the war had gone smoothly up until that point,
there was no guarantee that this would have remained the case.
With winter setting in, it may have become far more prolonged and costly.
Secondly, the key goals had been achieved.
The surrounding districts will be returned and Nagorno-Karabakh no longer
represents a credible separatist threat.
But perhaps most importantly of all, by allowing Nagorno-Karabakh to continue to
exist, this allows Azerbaijan to gain the prize of a land corridor with Nakhchivan.
Had it overrun Nagorno-Karabakh,
there would have been no bargaining chip to use with the Armenians to secure this link.
Equally, there's no doubt that this is a devastating defeat for Armenia.
Although the Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, put a brave face on the situation stating that, "this
is not a victory, but there is no defeat until you consider yourself defeated and we will never
consider ourselves defeated", the reality is that Armenia was left with no choice but to surrender.
As the leader of Nagorno-Karabakh explained, "if the military action had continued with
the same intensity, we would have lost all of Nagorno-Karabakh in several days
and would have had many more casualties."
Nevertheless, the result has been greeted with shock and anger by many Armenians.
In the immediate aftermath of the news, protesters stormed the parliament in
anger and there were calls for the Armenian prime minister to resign.
However, the outcome while bad, is not necessarily a complete disaster.
One upside is that the widely feared prospect of Azerbaijan troops completely
overrunning Nagorno-Karabakh with a very real prospect of ethnic cleansing, if not genocide,
has been averted.
At the same time, and crucially, enough of Nagorno-Karabakh remains to make it
a viable entity in some form or another for future talks between Yerevan and Baku.
But beyond this, there are two other major winners in this situation: Turkey and Russia.
Turkey, in particular, was delighted with the outcome,
calling the result a "sacred success" for Azerbaijan.
Having openly sided with Baku, if not encouraging it to fight,
the Turkish president will have burnished his credentials at home and in Azerbaijan.
Also, the creation of a land corridor across Armenia
now means that there will be a direct road link between Ankara and Baku.
This will help to strengthen the close economic,
political and ethnic links between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
But perhaps the most important, and interesting, winner in this story is Russia.
At first, it appeared as if Moscow didn't know how to respond to the crisis.
Given that there was a defence agreement between Russia and Armenia, many expected Moscow to come
to Yerevan's aid; especially given the obvious Turkish involvement in favour of Azerbaijan.
Indeed, there were even fears that the conflict could even spark
a serious confrontation between Russia and Turkey.
However, Russia was also keen not to alienate Azerbaijan.
Wanting to maintain its position as a regional hegemon,
Moscow therefore decided to play the role of "peacemaker".
However, in doing so, it chose its moment carefully to maximize its own advantages.
Indeed, the agreement came at the perfect moment for Moscow.
Any sooner and it would have damaged its ties with Baku, which was clearly winning the war.
Any later, when Nagorno-Karabakh had been completely lost,
would have robbed it of any leverage over the situation.
More to the point, had Nagorno-Karabakh fallen,
Armenians could well have blamed Moscow for not having stepped in to help them.
As it stands, while Armenians may feel that Moscow could have done more to help them sooner,
Yerevan will continue to rely on Moscow to help them to retain what they still hold.
On top of all this, the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Azerbaijan
extends Russia's regional footprint.
The big question, then, is what will happen now?
In the immediate future there will be a lot to do to ensure that the terms
of the peace agreement are met and that the promised exchanges are completed
and that all the internally displaced persons can start to return to their homes.
Looking further ahead, it's hard to say what will happen.
The fact that Nagorno-Karabakh continues to exist, and is protected by Russian peacekeepers,
means that it remains an issue on the table.
But the nature of the discussions will necessarily now change.
One thing that can be said for certain is that Nagorno-Karabakh's hopes
of consolidating its independent statehood are now at an end.
Indeed, as things stand, even the prospect of securing extensive autonomy within Azerbaijan
appears unlikely for the meanwhile.
Speaking to the people of Azerbaijan,
President Aliyev insisted that would be no status of any sort for Nagorno-Karabakh.
His message was: "They wanted independence. They were offered autonomy. Now they get nothing."
But while it seems that Baku will not want to look like it is making
any concessions on the back of its military victory at this stage,
it may well be the case that it will be willing to discuss options in the future - perhaps as
part of a final comprehensive settlement with Armenia that may also include trade-offs in
terms of consolidating a corridor between Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan exclave.
Still, this is likely to come a lot further down the road.
For the moment, Baku will want to savour its victory.
The possibility of a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan
over Nagorno-Karabakh had long been recognised.
All the signs were there.
However, in the end, the conflict proved to be far shorter than many had feared.
Azerbaijan, having spent fortunes on arms in recent years,
completely overpowered Armenian forces in a matter of weeks.
And yet, despite the fact that Azerbaijan won the war, the dispute is not yet over.
Russia's carefully timed intervention means that the issue essentially remains in limbo.
While the Nagorno-Karabakh republic no longer exists as a de facto state,
there are still a number of important loose ends that need to be resolved.
The question is whether Armenia and Azerbaijan can now reach an historic agreement that
provides an overall political settlement of one sort or another - or whether Russia,
and perhaps Turkey, may now try to keep the dispute
on ice indefinitely in order to maintain their respective leverages in the region.
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