>>> 41 PAST THE HOUR.
BEFORE WE GO TO THE MAPS, NEW
REPORTING FROM "THE WASHINGTON
POST" EXPLAINS HOW UKRAINIAN
FORCES HAVE MANAGED TO HOLD KYIV
DESPITE BEING OUTGUNNED.
ROB LEE, A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE
FOREIGN POLICY RESEARCH
INSTITUTE AND AN EXPERT ON
RUSSIAN DEFENSE POLICY, TELLS
"THE POST" THAT THE RUSSIANS
WERE NOT READY FOR
UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE.
ADDING, QUOTE, THEY ARE NOT SURE
HOW TO DEAL WITH THIS
INSURGENCY --
>> ANYBODY HEAR OF AFGHANISTAN?
I MEAN HOW COULD THEY NOT BE
PREPARED FOR GUERILLA WARFARE?
I MEAN IT IS CRAZY, MIKA.
>> WELL, "THE POST" REPORTS
THIS.
FOR THE UKRAINIAN FORCES THIS
WAR IS ONE OF ATTRITION.
THEY APPEAR TO BE TRYING TO SLOW
AND WEAR DOWN THE RUSSIAN
MILITARY, CREATING CONDITIONS
FOR A STALEMATE ON THE OUTER
BOUNDARIES OF KYIV THAT WOULD
BUY THE UKRAINIANS TIME FOR
OTHER PRESSURES ON RUSSIAN
PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN.
THAT APPEARS TO BE EXACTLY WHAT
THEY'RE DOING.
TO BE SURE, THE REPORT
CONTINUES, MOST MILITARY
ANALYSTS AND WESTERN OFFICIALS
STILL PREDICT RUSSIAN FORCES
WILL EVENTUALLY ENCIRCLE KYIV
AND PUSH INTO THE CAPITAL,
POSSIBLY ADDED BY AIRSTRIKES.
WHILE THIS COULD PROVE TRUE, IT
IS FAR FROM CLEAR WHETHER RUSSIA
WILL PREVAIL.
>> YEAH, I'VE GOT TO SAY I HAVE
YET TO TALK TO A MILITARY
ANALYST, A RETIRED GENERAL THAT
SAYS RUSSIA WILL PREVAIL.
THEY DON'T HAVE ENOUGH TROOPS.
EVEN IF THEY SENT ALL 200,000
TROOPS INTO KYIV TO TAKE IT AND
TO HOLD IT, IT WOULD BE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
DYNAMICS THAT ARE ON THE BATTLEFIELD RIGHT NOW.
BATTLEFIELD RIGHT NOW.
YOU HAVE A CHARGED, INTENSE,
POSITIVE DEFENDING FORCE THAT'S
DEFENDING THEIR HOMELAND AGAINST
YOUNG KIDS FOR THE MOST PART AND
DISORGANIZED TROOPS THAT DON'T
WANT TO BE THERE.
LET'S FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE
EVERYBODY IS ON THE BIG BOARD.
LET'S GO TO NATIONAL SECURITY
ANALYST FOR NBC NEWS AND MSNBC,
CLINT WATTS.
HE IS AT THE BIG BOARD.
CLINT, SHOW US WHERE THE BULK OF
THE RUSSIAN ATTACKS HAVE BEN
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR THIS
VERY LARGE FORCE.
NOT BIG ENOUGH TO HOLD UKRAINE,
BUT BIG ENOUGH TO CAUSE BIG
PROBLEMS, BUT A FORCE FOR THE
MOST PART THAT'S BEEN BOGGED
DOWN.
>> YES, JOE.
IT HAS BEEN VERY INTERESTING
WATCHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHAT HAS HAPPENED.
IT IS A SLOWDOWN OF THE RUSSIAN
MILITARY.
WHAT WE'VE SEEN ARE THESE
AIRSTRIKES TO THE WEST, THAT'S
THAT MILITARY BASE THAT WAS
STRUCK WITH THE MISSILE.
LOTS OF CASUALTIES.
THIS WAS ALWAYS PROBABLY GOING
TO HAPPEN.
THE RUSSIANS HAVE TO CUT OFF THE
SUPPLY LINES COMING INTO UKRAINE
OR THEY WILL NEVER, EVER BE ABLE
TO TAKE THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY.
THERE'S SOME DOUBT WHETHER THEY
CAN DO THAT.
HERE IN THE NORTH, THIS IS KYIV,
JUST WATCHING THIS, THIS IS THE
CONVOY FROM LAST WEEK.
THEY'RE TRYING TO SPLINTER OUT
HERE TO THE WEST.
YOU SEE THEM IN AND AROUND
IRPIN.
THAT'S WHERE RICHARD ENGEL WAS A
LOT OF LAST WEEK.
THEY CAN'T GET REALLY A BRIDGE
HEAD.
THERE'S A WATER OBSTACLE THAT
GOES THROUGH THIS AREA.
SEPARATELY, THERE ARE TWO ARMOR
FORMATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING
DOWN THESE HIGHWAYS.
IN BOTH CASES, THIS IS AN AREA
WHERE ARTILLERY, UKRAINIAN
ARTILLERY, AIRSTRIKES HAVE JUST
KNOCKED OUT AN ARMOR GROUP.
IT IS REMARKABLE TO EVEN SEE
THIS, A TOTAL LACK OF DISCIPLINE
BY THE RUSSIAN FORCES.
THAT'S WHY YOU SEE IN ALL OF
THESE CORRIDORS ESSENTIALLY THE
RUSSIANS JUST TRYING TO DO
RESUPPLY, JUST TRYING TO GET
THEIR BEARINGS.
THEY ARE DEFINITELY TRYING TO
ENCIRCLE HERE TO THE NORTH AND
OVER TIME TO ENCIRCLE FROM THE
SOUTH.
I THINK THIS IS THE BIG QUESTION
WHICH YOU MENTIONED, JOE, HOW
COULD THEY EVER DO THIS?
HOW COULD THEY EVER SUSTAIN
THIS?
EVEN IF THEY ENCIRCLE, IT WILL
TAKE WEEKS FOR THEM TO GET INTO
POSITION.
IT WOULD TAKE WEEKS MORE TO GO
INTO KYIV.
THIS IS A LARGE URBAN AREA
THAT'S GOING TO PUT UP AN
INTENSE FIGHT AND THEY STILL
HAVE NOT CUT OFF RESUPPLY INTO
HERE.
SEPARATELY, THE BIGGER FIGHT AND
I THINK WHAT WE NEED TO WATCH IS
WHAT IS GOING ON HERE IN THE
CITIES CLOSE TO THE RUSSIAN
BORDER IN THE EAST.
KHARKIV IS A MAJOR BATTLE.
THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY DOING AN
AMAZING JOB FIGHTING.
THIS IS SO CLOSE TO THE BORDER,
THIS IS WHERE WE'RE WORRIED
ABOUT THINGS LIKE WOULD THE RUSSIANS USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS TO
RUSSIANS USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS TO
GO AFTER POPULATION CENTERS THEY
BY
BYPASSED.
THIS IS WHERE THE BATTLE HAS
REALLY GONE AND YOU ARE SEEING
THE CRIMEA PLAYBOOK UNFOLD.
KHERSON IS A CITY THEY TOOK
ABOUT TEN DAYS AGO. THEY BASICALLY INSTALLED WHAT
THEY BASICALLY INSTALLED WHAT
THEY WOULD CALL A REPUBLIC.
THEY WANT TO ENCIRCLE ODESA.
THEY'RE STRUGGLING TO GET AROUND
THERE, THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY
PUTTING UP AN INTENSE FIGHT
HERE.
REMARKABLE TO WATCH THOUSAND
THEY'VE BEEN ABLE TO STAVE THIS
OFF.
I THINK IT POINTS TO THE BIGGER
PICTURE, WHICH IS THEY HAVE
SIEGE WARFARE HERE AND THEY'RE
TRYING TO DO IT IN OTHER TOWNS
BUT THEY HAVE A BIG PROBLEM.
THEY WANT TO ADVANCE TO DNIPRO
WHICH IS A MAJOR CITY ON THE
RIVER.
IF THEY CAN UNIFY THE AXIS THEY
WOULD BE ABLE TO CUT OFF CENTRAL
UKRAINE.
IT LEADS TO ONE BIG PROBLEM FOR
THEM, IS PROTESTS.
WHAT YOU ARE SEEING IN THE REAR
AREA WITH THE LIGHT BLUE DOTS IS
YOU HAVE UKRAINIANS PROTESTING
IN WHAT IS OCCUPIED RUSSIA.
THEY'VE BROUGHT DOWN RIOT
CONTROL POLICE TO KHERSON TO TRY
TO GET THE SITUATION UNDER
CONTROL.
YOU SEE REMARKABLE FOOTAGE FROM
THAT.
BUT IF THEY'RE BRINGING THOSE
DOWN HERE WHO IS DOING RIOT
CONTROL BACK HOME IN RUSSIA?
>> SO I WANT TO JUST JUMP IN AND
ASK CLINT, LOOKING AT YOUR BIG
BOARD I AM WONDERING ABOUT
RUSSIAN LOGISTICAL PROBLEMS,
WHETHER THEY'RE ABLE TO SUPPLY
THAT ARMY AS IT PENETRATES
DEEPER AND DEEPER TOWARDS KYIV,
TOWARDS OTHER UKRAINIAN CITIES.
THEY SEEM TO BE HAVING PROBLEMS
WITH FUEL AND OTHER SUPPLIES.
WHAT DO YOU HEAR FROM YOUR
CONTACTS?
>> SO A COUPLE OF THINGS, DAVID.
WE DID SEE -- THAT'S ROB LEE WHO
YOU TALKED ABOUT JUST BEFORE IN
THAT SEGMENT, REMARKABLE
RESEARCHER AT FOREIGN POLICY
RESEARCH INSTITUTE.
HE SHOWED ESSENTIALLY SHIPS
COMING IN FOR FIRST TIME.
THEY WOULD BE COMING IN FROM THE
SEA OF AZOV.
THEY'VE ESSENTIALLY MADE IT A
RUSSIAN SEA.
IT WAS PART UKRAINIAN, PART
RUSSIAN.
YOU HAVE SEEN RAIL HEADS BEING
USED.
YOU MIGHT REMEMBER FROM
DISCUSSIONS A COUPLE OF WEEKS
AGO ABOUT NUCLEAR PLANTS.
ONE OF THE REASON YOU WANT THE
NUCLEAR PLANTS IS, YES, YOU WANT
TO CONTROL THE POWER BUT THERE'S
A MAJOR RAIL HEAD THERE AS WELL.
YOU CAN DO RESUPPLY.
WHEN WE LOOK IN TERMS OF
LOGISTICS, STILL VERY WEAK.
WHAT YOU SEE IS HERE IN THE EAST
THEY'RE TRYING TO ESTABLISH SOME
OF THE RAIL HEADS BECAUSE THEY
WANT TO BE ABLE TO SUPPLY FROM
TOWN TO TOWN.
DOWN HERE IN THE SOUTH, THE SAME
THING.
BUT IT IS VERY LIMITED.
WHERE THEY'RE REALLY STRUGGLING
IS HERE IN AND AROUND KYIV.
THIS IS JUST RESUPPLIED BY ROAD.
MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DO.
YOU CAN'T BRING THE LOGISTICS IN
THAT YOU NEED AND THAT'S WHY
THEY KEEP GETTING BOGGED DOWN
BECAUSE THEY CAN'T ADVANCE AND
SECURE.
THEY'RE NOT USING ENOUGH
DISMOUNT OF MOUNTED INFANTRY TO
KEEP THE COLUMNS SAFE.
>> YOU KNOW, FROM THE BEGINNING
THE UKRAINIANS HAVE SAID, WELL,
THE RUSSIANS HAVE THE ADVANTAGE
IN THE COUNTRYSIDE, THEY HAVE
THE ADVANTAGE OUT IN THE HOP.
BUT WHEN THEY COME INTO THE
CITY, WHEN THEY COME INTO KYIV
WE HAVE THE ADVANTAGE.
THAT BEING SAID, IF THEY'RE
HAVING THIS MUCH TROUBLE OUTSIDE
THE CITY, WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THEY
GO IN AND HAVE TO PUT UP, YOU
KNOW, TRY TO TAKE OVER A CITY
WITH MILLIONS OF PEOPLE AND DEAL
WITH URBAN COMBAT?
HOW UGLY DOES THAT GET FOR THE
RUSSIANS?
>> JOE, AS AN INFANTRYMAN WE
USED TO PLAN TEN TO ONE, THAT
YOU NEEDED TEN FIGHTERS
ESSENTIALLY TO GO AFTER ONE IN
THE DEFENSE IN AN URBAN
ENVIRONMENT.
>> WOW.
>> WHEN YOU LOOK AT THIS URBAN
ENVIRONMENT, AND YOU HAVE A
RUSSIAN MILITARY.
WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT THE
AMERICAN MILITARY.
YOU HAVE A RUSSIAN MILITARY,
THERE'S A LOT OF DOUBT ABOUT
THEIR MORALE AND WILLINGNESS TO
GO IN.
YOU'VE SEEN SOME DISMOUNTED
AIRBORNE TROOPS COMING IN THIS
DIRECTION.
WE KNOW THEY WILL WANT TO PUT
MORE PEOPLE ON THE GROUND, BUT
IT IS JUST NOT AN ARMY THAT'S
BUILT FOR THIS.
THEY RELY ON HEAVY FIRES.
THEY RELY ON LOTS OF ARMOR
FORMATIONS.
THERE'S NOTHING MORE WORTHLESS
THAN A TANK IN THE MIDDLE OF
KYIV THAT HAS A STANDOFF OF TEN
FEET WHEN IT IS DESIGNED FOR
THOUSANDS OF METERS.
SO THEY'RE GOING TO HIT JUST A
WALL OF RESISTANCE HERE, AND
THAT'S WHY YOU ARE GOING TO SEE
THEM JUST KEEPING UP THIS
PUMMELLING AND USE OF LARGE
FIRES, BALLISTIC MISSILES,
AIRSTRIKES COMING IN FROM THE
RUSSIAN SIDE OF THIS BORDER