European aerospace giant Airbus is leaving an eventful year behind - and looking ahead
to a new one still characterized by some uncertainty but also a whole heap of innovation and other
new developments.
Follow along as we attempt to glance into the aviation crystal ball for the 12 months
ahead and see what Airbus is getting up to in the year to come.
In today’s video, we’ll look at developments in decarbonization and new aircraft technology,
production rates, the implementation of the world's largest aircraft side cargo door,
and the next chapter in the bitter A350 feud with Qatar Airways.
But before we jump in to the year ahead, let’s compare 2022’s events with our own predictions.
Around this time last year we published our 2022 outlook for Airbus.
First off, we noted that the year would be important for the A321XLR as it continued
to make its way towards certification.
This all went according to plan and the extra-long-range A321 variant completed its first test flight
in mid-June 2021.
The exciting news was followed by more test flights, as well as the 2nd A321XLR taking
off for test flights as well.
We then discussed the company’s A350 freighter campaign and anticipated that it would be
working hard to secure more orders.
While the airline firmed-up some orders placed in 2021, there didn’t seem to be many more
customers signing on for the type.
Etihad did commit itself to taking seven, while some have speculated that Kuwait Airways
could be a future customer, but overall, things were quiet for the A350 freighter.
Our third big prediction had to do with the ongoing paint saga with Qatar Airways.
It has indeed become a saga as the messy legal battle dragged on throughout the past year.
Legal maneuvers and accusations have been thrown about, but the feud continues.
It’s something we’ll provide an update on within this video.
But moving on to 2023 and our outlook for Airbus, what could be said?
Well our first point has to do with the A321XLR.
Airbus' extra long-range narrowbody flew for the first time in June 2022, and the test
campaign now comprises three aircraft.
As late as December, Airbus put the narrowbody jet through its paces with a 13-hour flight
over Europe.
The plane was originally intended to have entered service by now, but the project, like
many other aircraft developments, has been delayed.
While it has gotten some way on the path to certification, regulators are unconvinced
about Airbus' proposed solution for the extra fuel tank needed to give the jet its intended
quote-unquote "game-changing" range of 4700 NM (8,704 km).
Both the FAA and EASA are insisting that design changes be made to the Rear Center Tank (RCT)
of the A321XLR, lest it potentially poses a fire hazard in the event of an otherwise
survivable crash.
In a document from December 8th, EASA said that the tank should be put in a position
that quote “is not likely to fail or rupture in a survivable crash condition exceeding
the applicable existing emergency landing conditions.”
The agency further recommended that Airbus consider including some additional fuselage
design features that would mitigate the effects of potential impact and scraping.
As such, we are likely to see the aerospace giant hunker down and get to work on a slightly
different version of the A321XLR than it had originally intended - one that could potentially
cost some of the range it initially announced in a bid to gain regulatory approval.
At the same time, however, a spokesperson for Airbus has assured us at Simple Flying
that any design changes in search of regulatory approval would not detrimentally impact the
unique characteristics of the much-awaited game-changing single-aisle jet.
First deliveries are now expected to take place in 2024.
Our second point has to do with new technology in the support of decarbonizing aerospace.
Airbus has long prided itself on being a pioneer in aviation and takes great effort to maintain
and cultivate the pioneering spirit despite having attained and established leadership
as one of the aerospace industry's two hegemons.
And as aviation readies itself for the greatest transitional challenge it has ever faced (apart
from actually taking off from the ground for the first time), Airbus, it would seem, is
doing its best to live up to those intentions.
The introduction of new propulsion technology is not something that happens overnight.
As such, we will not see the Airbus A380 MSN001 multi-modal testbed aircraft launched into
the skies with a hydrogen engine mounted to the fuselage this coming year.
This is despite the somewhat recent reveal of a hydrogen-electric fuel cell engine as
a parallel pathway to direct combustion.
However, Airbus will take several incremental and crucial steps on the way there.
These include the launch of a series of tests across novel propulsion, including hydrogen
and electric, and supporting technologies such as cryogenic superconductors in collaboration
with CERN.
The first test results of the Scale (Super-Conductor for Aviation with Low Emissions) demonstrator
are expected at the end of 2023 and will be the first step towards a long-term collaboration
that will hopefully pave the way to superconducting power distribution for aircraft.
In turn, this could revolutionize efficiency in airborne electric propulsion systems.
Airbus has also intensified its efforts to obtain certification for a broad range of
its products to operate on 100% sustainable aviation fuel (saf).
In November 2022, the manufacturer operated an A330MRTT - the military variant of the
Airbus A330 commercial jetliner - on 100% saf in both engines in collaboration with
the UK Royal Air Force and Rolls-Royce.
While many airlines around the world use saf for some of their flights, this is often a
50% blend with conventional fossil fuel.
The Airbus test flight using 100% saf proves safe and effective operation.
Jesus Ruiz, experimental test pilot and Captain of the flight, commented on the results, saying:
“From the crew perspective, the saf operation was ‘transparent’, meaning that no differences
were observed operationally.
The Test Plan was exhaustive and robust and has allowed us to compare SAF with JET1 culminating
in a flight without a single drop of fossil fuel.
Teamwork was a key contributor, harmonizing experience from Airbus, Rolls-Royce and the
RAF."
The manufacturer has previously operated an A380 with one engine running on 100% SAF,
as well as with an A350 and an A319neo.
With such a successful outcome with two engines from the R.A.F.
test, we are bound to see more “100% saf” tests in 2023 - most likely involving Airbus'
commercial line of products, as well as helicopters.
One last note on this topic is that, toward the end of 2022, Airbus also announced it
had signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with leading sustainable fuel provider Neste
to further work on the technical aspects of the challenge to reach the 100% saf certification
and, as such, jointly advance the production and uptake.
What concrete steps this will mean will surely crystalize as the year unfolds.
Next up, we have to talk about the company’s output and delivery rate.
In early December, Airbus stated it was no longer maintaining the predicted aircraft
delivery target for 2022.
However, just like Boeing, Airbus is hoping to see a ramp-up in production in 2023.
This includes increasing the output for the small but nimble A220, which has had a fairly
modest rate of delivery thus far - especially compared to the A320 family.
Indeed, over the next couple of years, the manufacturer will increase the production
rate for the inherited Bombardier C-series jet to 14 aircraft per month - ten of which
will be produced on parallel lines in Mirabel, Quebec.
This is part of an efficiency and cost-cutting drive for the A220, which, despite its popularity
and an orderbook for close to 800 units, has thus far failed to reach profitability.
Also on the topic of aircraft production, the first half of 2023 will see Airbus break
ground on a new 350,000 square feet facility in Mobile for an additional final assembly
line for the A320 family.
Planes are expected to roll out of this new building for the first time in 2025.
The expansion of Airbus' Alabama site will also feature a new paint shop, and there will
be further modifications to the main hangar of the location.
On the other side of the world, Airbus' final assembly line (F.A.L.) in Tianjin, China,
has become A321 compatible and has already begun assembling the first larger sibling
of the A320 family.
This began in November 2022.
The first A321 to be assembled in Tianjin is expected to be handed over to its customer
airline during the first quarter of 2023.
All of Airbus' A320 F.A.L.’s globally can now also assemble the longer range, higher
capacity A321.
This is part of an industrial strategy to de-risk the production ramp-up and to meet
the rising share of A321 production.
While plans for production ramp-up are all well and good, the pandemic has exposed the
fragility of the supply chains that support this production.
Indeed, supply chain issues have caused delays in the delivery from both Boeing and Airbus
over the past year, and are forcing the latter to delay the ramp-up of its A320neo output
by about six months.
This means that instead of rolling them out at a rate of 65 aircraft per month from next
summer, this figure will be reached instead in early 2024.
Airbus is also reportedly delaying the delivery of some 2023 A320neo deliveries as a result
of the global shortages.
However, despite the short-term delays in increasing production, the company remains
confident it will hit a delivery rate of 65 A320 family jets per month in 2024, increasing
to 75 by 2025.
Aircraft manufacturers have seen orders begin to pour in again for single-aisle jets following
the lull of the pandemic.
Larger jets have, unsurprisingly, not seen the same bounce-back in demand.
On this topic, a spokesperson for Airbus told Simple Flying that it’s expecting to see
a return to a more normal state of affairs for widebody orders in 2023 through 2024.
The latest information is still that Airbus will increase its A350 production from about
five currently to six in early 2023.
And speaking of widebodies, the dramatic dispute between Qatar Airways and Airbus over the
paint quality control issues of the airline's A350s is set to take yet another turn this
year.
Technical experts will inspect aircraft in Doha in January, and British High Court Justice
Waksman will travel to both Doha and Toulouse to look at the planes.
A summit is scheduled for January 11th in Doha between Airbus and the Qatar Civil Aviation
Authority (QCAA), which we imagine could be a meeting filled with tension!
Unfortunately for everyone, the legal battle will most likely continue throughout the best
part of the year, with the trial set to be split into two parts.
The first will take place in June and focus on liability.
Meanwhile, a decision on the size of the damage claims will be decided upon at a later date.
Airbus has admitted to the quality issues but denies that they are due to design.
Furthermore, it says it has been prevented by the airline from accessing relevant information,
among other complaints relating to millions of dollars in quote-unquote "purchase incentives."
Qatar Airways, meanwhile, claims that Airbus has failed to provide technical information
regarding the defect and that regulators at EASA had been influenced by the planemaker
regarding the aircraft.
The bitter legal proceedings and mutual vitriol are far from over and are set to continue
for the remainder of the year and beyond.
This is one instance where we are not that excited to say, "watch this space."
In lower-profile news, Airbus announced a competition in October 2022 where it invited
people to submit designs for the livery of its forthcoming cargo widebody, the A350F.
We assume this is a house livery as customers of the aircraft would be painting their jets
in their own colors…
The last date for submissions was in November with the winning design on the freighter aircraft
canvas will be revealed during the Le Bourget Paris Airshow - an even tthat takes place
in June 2023.
The winner will also be presented with a model replica during the event.
Furthermore, in this coming year, Airbus will be working on integrating the largest side
cargo door for any airliner into its new widebody freighter.
This design change follows continuous feedback and dialogue with customers, and the XL Main
Deck Cargo Door will now measure 175 inches in width instead of the 146.5 inches on the
version initially announced.
The manufacturer says that this enlarged door will be able to fit the Trent 7000 engine.
So that’s what we see as being on the horizon for Airbus in the year to come.
Are there other developments at Airbus you are curious about?
What else in the aviation industry are you looking forward to in 2023?
Join the discussion by leaving a comment!