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China's political and military leaders want one thing above all: to reconquer Taiwan.
Meanwhile in Taiwan, more and more people are dreaming of achieving full independence.
And in the United States, well, let's just say they are hoping that the odd misstep will prevent
China from becoming a real superpower. We are talking about a massive chess game.
It’s a geopolitical game in which the current storm of fire, destruction and annihilation
that Putin's hordes have launched on Ukraine has set off all the alarms.
Suddenly a lot of countries around the world have realized one thing:
That even in the midst of the 21st century, war may be much closer than we could have imagined.
Of course, Taiwan takes the lead in all of this.
The geopolitical, military and strategic situation of this island has many similarities with Ukraine:
Both Russia and China maintain claims that, in one way or another, go through limiting the
sovereignty of these territories. What’s more, both Taiwan and Ukraine are countries that have
tried, with varying degrees of success, to forge their own institutions, forge relations with
the West and consolidate a democratic system. But let's start at the beginning. The Taiwanese
began to see the light when Xi Jinping's regime ended the de facto independence
enjoyed by the former free city of Hong Kong with the stroke of a pen.
That was Taipei's first warning. Now the invasion of Ukraine has
set off the alarm bells again. It has been the second and perhaps the final warning.
You see, for decades it has been taken for granted that the Chinese People's Liberation
Army was not capable enough to invade Taiwan and take control of the island.
However, according to many military experts,
all that could change very soon. Given the plans China currently has in place,
by the years 2025-2027, the Asian giant could be ready to launch its offensive.
And that is why in Taiwan they are paying very, very close
attention to what is happening in Ukraine. C1("The determination and resilience that
the Ukrainian people have shown in the wake of Russia's invasion have inspired Taiwan,
reinforcing our commitment to defend our freedom." – Bi-khim Hsiao,
Taiwan's representative to the US) And keep in mind, we are not just
talking about empty words. The brutal Russian invasion has already prompted
the Taiwanese government to take action. N1 (Taiwan looks at extending compulsory
military service beyond 4 months Minister tells parliament that proposals
are under consideration and a plan will be put forward this year. Beijing's pressure
on the island and Russia's war in Ukraine have prompted debate on how to boost defense – SCMP)
But beyond the big headlines: What lessons can Taiwan take from Ukraine? What can
and cannot be learnt by Tsai Ing-wen's country from Volodymyr Zelensky's country?
Listen up. 1 (LESSONS FROM UKRAINE)
Right now the war in Ukraine has served to highlight two ideas:
Firstly, it has shown that being stronger does not always guarantee military victory.
Secondly, even if the attacking country is a nuclear power and a major supplier
of key supplies, Western allies may be willing to provide all the
assistance necessary to arm an ally fighting to preserve its territory and independence.
And keep in mind, this was something that until the Russian invasion of Ukraine,
generated a lot of doubts. And, it goes even further. If
Western countries have thrown themselves behind Ukraine, which is basically a grain exporter,
imagine what position they might take with the country that produces more than half
of all advanced semiconductors used in the world. And it's not just us saying so,
it's US President Joe Biden himself. N2(Biden says US would intervene
militarily if China were to invade Taiwan Comments during Tokyo visit raise uncertainty
over whether US is moving away from policy of "strategic ambiguity." – WSJ)
But beyond the United States’ hypothetical response, here are
some of the formulas that Taiwan may already be extracting from the Ukrainian experience.
First of all we have to keep in mind that,
being an island, Taiwan is at high risk of being besieged.
In fact, before launching the military offensive itself, it is very likely that
China would use a combination of siege techniques with hybrid warfare actions,
such as cyber-attacks or sabotage of all kinds. Well, in order to resist the siege, and based on
the experience of cities like Mariupol or Kharkiv, the first thing Taiwan has to do
is to double its oil reserves to allow the army to maintain its operations.
Taiwan's Petroleum Administration Act currently provides for crude oil reserves amounting to 30
days of the previous year's average consumption, or approximately one million barrels per day.
Now, following the Ukrainian experience, military experts are advising Taiwan to at least double
these stocks to 60 days. What’s more, this storage should be located at high elevations and dispersed
throughout the country, both for protection against precision attacks and so that the oil
can continue to be transported, thanks to gravity, even in the event of power supply disruptions.
In addition, to ensure power supply, military experts advise the
construction of multiple electric fuel generators alongside the same tanks.
Also, considering that ports could become priority targets for the invader,
the country must prepare itself to receive over-the-shore deliveries, that is without
having to use port infrastructure. In total, it is estimated that these
actions could cost Taiwan more than $4 billion. But keep one thing clear:
guaranteeing the supply of oil to the military could determine the entire course of the war.
Likewise, experts are also recommending that the country urgently increase its
basic food stocks to a minimum of 120 days of consumption, build water wells
throughout the island and implement an effective satellite internet network.
N3(Starlink internet becomes a lifeline for Ukrainians
In Ukraine, Starlink's technology has found a place where it can prove itself,
especially being used in ways other than how it was intended. Throughout its invasion,
Russia has consistently attacked Ukrainian communications infrastructure with both
military weapons and cyberattacks. – NBC News) The idea behind this first set of measures
would be to prepare Taiwan to hold out long enough for international aid to
arrive or for China to throw in the towel. But of course, in addition to infrastructure,
this goal needs, above all, to ensure effective military defense.
And here we come to the second lesson that the Russian invasion is teaching us:
it is possible to contain a superior army. And to do so we must necessarily
talk about military equipment and above all about three axes: ballistic defense,
air defense and maritime defense. You see, the war in Ukraine is not
only serving as a learning experience for Taiwan, but also for China itself.
For example, the Asian giant may have realized that to achieve rapid military superiority it
would need to lash out with a brutal amount of fire before carrying out the full-scale invasion.
This is something Russia did not do before invading Ukraine.
Well, in order to be able to cope with this more than likely scenario,
Taiwan has to multiply its defense against ballistic missiles and precision weapons.
Currently, the Taiwanese armed forces are already planning to
upgrade their 350 Patriot PAC-3 missiles and purchase 300 additional interceptors.
After witnessing the Ukrainian experience, the effort will probably be even greater.
For example, the purchase of drones and equipping them with electronic warfare equipment
may be encouraged, which would reduce the accuracy of Chinese guided missiles. This
would call for a much greater military and economic effort for the invader.
There are even those on the island who advocate pressuring the United States to deploy its
THADD system in Taiwan. Of course, it seems unlikely that Washington would be willing to
do so. When it was deployed in South Korea, there was a huge diplomatic row with China.
Furthermore, Ukraine has also shown how preventing the invader from gaining air
control is possible and may also be key to slowing down its operations.
In this vein, the Ukrainian defense has been characterized by being organized in layers,
making it difficult or impossible for the invading power to achieve air superiority.
C2("Without air control ... China would be incapable of executing almost any military
plan against Taiwan."– Harry Halem and Eyck Freymann, geopolitical analysts)
And so, Taiwan could create a first defensive layer of greater range
and altitude with the Patriots, a middle layer with other anti-aircraft batteries
of lower precision and a final layer with portable anti-aircraft systems, that is,
those that can be carried by the soldiers themselves. These are known as MANPADS.
In Ukraine we have all seen the example of the Stingers donated by NATO and the Strela that
they already had and that have been used to shoot down numerous helicopters, drones and
even the occasional Russian fighter plane. Lastly, we have the case of maritime defense.
Of course, since it is an island, this point becomes very important: to prevent the invasion,
it is essential that Taiwan manages to avoid landings and to avoid China
using the coastline to attack land positions. Although Ukraine lacked a naval force, which
Taiwan evidently does have, there is one thing it could copy: the Ukrainian strategy of sea denial.
Sea denial is a military term that consists of making it impossible for the enemy to use the sea
to carry out an assault, while at the same time not necessarily controlling the waters entirely.
Taiwan could look, for example, not only at how Ukraine has deployed numerous sea mines,
but especially at how critical it could be to store and deploy anti-ship missiles and
precision-guided munitions all along the country's
coastline in small depots that are difficult for the invader to detect.
Indeed, this is how Ukraine managed to sink the Moskva with its Neptune missiles:
by going unnoticed. N4(Warship Moskva was
Blind to Ukrainian Missile Attack, Analysis Shows The crew of RTS Moskva (121) was blind to and
not ready for the Ukrainian missile attack that sank Russia's Black Sea flagship. – USNI News)
N5 (Odessa hit by missiles as Ukraine claims it has sunk second Russian ship – The Guardian)
What’s more, experience in the Ukrainian war has shown that Taiwan's
current inventory could prove to be clearly insufficient. Even given news like this:
N6(Taiwan to more than double annual missile production capacity amid China tension
Taiwan plans to more than double its yearly missile production capacity
to close to 500 this year. – Reuters) Taiwan has been upgrading its maritime
defense for some time now, for example with the purchase of 400 Harpoon anti-ship missiles
from the United States and 25 radars to operate them. These missiles could be capable of hitting
Chinese ships shortly after they leave port. But the numbers seem clearly insufficient.
Furthermore, much more is needed to really have an effective deterrent force.
Thirdly, we can highlight something in which Ukraine has literally crushed Russia:
the war for narrative and communication. This is something in which Zelensky
has proven to be quite talented. If there is one thing Ukraine has done,
it has been to win the support of the vast majority of the West. Yes,
they are the victims of the invasion, but that does not mean it was a piece of cake.
Ukraine has presented itself to the world not only as the victim of an invasion but
also and above all as a country fighting for democracy, openness and European values.
This, VisualPolitik fans, has made not supporting Ukraine so distasteful that even the European
Union has taken matters into its own hands. In addition, at all times Zelensky has argued
that victory was possible if he had the support of the West. In other words,
he conferred responsibility. Well, Taiwan is the country with
the most civil rights in all of Asia, an indispensable technological leader
and an important Western ally. Strengthening the foreign agenda and, above all, becoming something
like the Mecca of Freedom and civil rights could be key to, if necessary, counting on
the massive and unanimous support of the West. This is something we’ve already covered here on
Visualpolitik in a past video on the defense of Taiwan.
And finally, the fourth key has to do with general mobilization.
Especially with the so-called territorial defense forces, which were created from 2015, and are
playing a key role in the defense of Ukraine. We are talking about a kind of well-organized
support army that has even been established as a branch of the Armed Forces.
It’s an army that is composed of reservists and volunteers who receive training and are in charge
of tasks such as: controlling the security of the territory, providing logistical support to the
troops, intelligence, carrying out ambushes and sabotage operations, and even providing
agile support to the professional army's own combat actions with troops where necessary.
The idea is to make the defense much denser and, therefore, to make it much
more difficult for the invader to control the territory. This Ukrainian model has begun to
be copied by Poland and now there are those who think that Taiwan could do the same.
However, this could become very complicated. Because,
at this point we get into what Taiwan may not be able to learn from Ukraine.
Listen up. 2 (WHAT TAIWAN MAY NOT BE ABLE TO LEARN)
Territorial defense forces have played a key role in Ukraine's resistance.
And it makes sense. As we were saying,
making defense much denser in a territory can turn an invasion into a huge nightmare.
At the same time, the professional army frees up resources to focus on attacking the enemy.
Thanks to these forces, Ukrainian cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv,
Odessa or Mykolayiv were armored to the extent that Russian soldiers could not penetrate them.
However, despite its enormous role, this is something that Taiwan may not be able to emulate.
You see, in Taiwan there is a civil defense corps, but the truth is that it is not militarized
and depends entirely on the police. We are talking about a corps that is designed primarily to
assist in evacuations or natural disasters such as earthquakes, typhoons and floods.
Its members do not receive any weapons training. And they are certainly not
likely to know how to use them themselves. In fact this is one of the countries in the
world with the strictest legislation regarding the possession of weapons,
to the point that even to buy a speargun you need a police permit.
And although there is military service, it is very short, only four months, and does not currently
provide effective training for a war situation. What’s more, the simple truth is that trying
to turn this civilian force into a kind of army would be illegal.
And okay, I know what you're thinking. But, [Name of Host], wouldn't it be as easy as saying...
we’ll change the laws and that's it. Well... no, the truth is that it would not. Right now
it would be illegal and there doesn't seem to be enough political will to change that situation.
At least that's the way things stand today. But having reached this point, it’s your turn:
should Taiwan change this and go for armed civilian resistance? Should the Formosan country
build an entire insurgency like the Ukrainians did between 2014 and 2022? Do you think Taiwan
would manage to resist a Chinese invasion at least as successfully as Ukraine is doing?
Leave us your opinion below, in the comments. And if you liked this video, don't forget to
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