to best bring the ukraine crisis this
geopolitical crisis to an end
it's important to first start by
acknowledging russia's interests
so what we're talking about here tonight
is how best to end this crisis we're not
talking about who started it who should
be blamed we're not talking about
whether vladimir putin is a good guy or
a bad guy the question here is how best
to end it
now this is referred to as a
geopolitical crisis in the motion my
view is that it's much more than a
geopolitical crisis this is a
geopolitical disaster first of all look
at what's happening to ukraine this
country is in the process of being
destroyed the war is only 78 days old if
this war goes on and on you can only
imagine what's going to happen to
ukraine estimates are by the world bank
that over 60 billion dollars worth of
damage has been inflicted on ukraine
some people say that it will take 600
billion dollars to rebuild the country
thousands of people have been killed
cities have been destroyed five million
people have left the country six million
people are internally displaced 13
million people are living in combat
zones for the sake of the ukrainian
people it's essential to bring this to
an end furthermore we run the risk here
that this war which is now between
ukraine and russia is going to turn into
a war between ukraine and the united
states it's going to turn into a great
power war this is a really scary thought
we know very well that when wars become
long wars they tend to escalate and the
last thing we want is a war between the
united states
and russia and the reason is because the
threat of nuclear war is on the table
now many of you might think this is not
a serious possibility but that would be
a fundamental mistake you should
understand what america's goal is in
this war america's goal is to inflict a
decisive defeat on ukraine number one
and number two to bring the russian
economy to its knees with economic
sanctions if you listen to general
austin who is the secretary of defense
he's basically talking about knocking
russia out of the ranks of the great
powers this is another way of saying we
are presenting russia with an
existential threat now does that mean
that they will use nuclear weapons
nobody can say for sure but there is a
serious possibility avril haynes who's
the director of national intelligence
said on tuesday when appearing in
capitol hill
that
one of the two scenarios in which
russia will use nuclear weapons is if it
is being defeated
in ukraine
well our basic goal
is to defeat
russia in ukraine
so we have a very perverse paradox here
the paradox is that the better the
united states does on the battlefield
with the ukrainians doing the fighting
of course the more likely it is
that russia will turn to nuclear weapons
and we might end up in a general
thermonuclear war
we have to end this war to make sure
that doesn't happen
now the motion says that we start by
taking into account russia's interests
this does not mean that we don't
consider the interests of ukraine the
interest of the united states the
interests of nato of course we take into
account their interests but we start
with the russians and the reason we
start with the russians is very simple
they started the war and what we have to
do is figure out what their interests
are because if we don't know what their
interests are there's no way we can shut
this one down so we're starting with
russia's interests
now the question is what are russia's
interests
the conventional wisdom which i'm sure
all of you have heard ad nauseam
is that vladimir putin is responsible
for this war vladimir putin is an
imperialist he's either trying to create
a greater russia or
he's trying to recreate the soviet union
and what's going on here is that ukraine
is a country that he wants to conquer
and incorporate
into russia he wants to absorb it
there is absolutely no evidence to
support that argument there is no
evidence that he thinks that's desirable
there's no evidence that he thinks
that's feasible and there's no evidence
in the public record that he's ever said
that that's what he intends to do
this is a crisis that is all about the
west's efforts to turn ukraine into a
western bulwark on russia's border it
involves a three-pronged strategy
bringing russia bringing ukraine
into the eu
turning ukraine into a pro-western
liberal democracy and number three and
most importantly
bringing ukraine into nato if you listen
to putin's speech
speeches and you read his writings he
has made it unequivocally clear that
this is the principal problem
ukraine joining nato i want to make
three sets of points and they all have
to do with data uh mike makes the
argument that putin alone or just putin
in a few russian leaders are
interested in ukraine
and the whole subject of nato this is
what one of mike's predecessors
bill burns said in 2008 in a memo to
conde rice ukrainian entry into nato is
the brightest of all red lines for the
russians not just putin in more than two
and a half years of conversations with
knuckle draggers in the dark recesses of
the kremlin
and putin's sharpest liberal critics
i have
never met anyone
who thinks that ukraine in nato is
acceptable
second
to go to mike again
or let me go to rotten this time
uh he made the argument that the uh
that putin
in his famous july 12 2021 essay made it
clear that what he was interested in
doing
was conquering ukraine and absorbing it
into
a greater russia this is what he
actually wrote
he said
this is in the july 12 2021 article and
what ukraine will be
it is up to its citizens to decide
he also said you want to establish a
state of your own and he's talking to
the ukrainians here you are welcome
in the february 24th speech where he
announced that he was
invading ukraine
he said accept
these new geopolitical realities he said
we
russia accepts the new geopolitical
realities
after the collapse
of the soviet union in 1991. he said
regarding ukraine
we respect and will respect their
sovereignty there is no evidence in that
talk no evidence in that talk on
february 24th or in his speech that he
was interested in uh
conquering
ukraine and integrated into russia and
then finally with regard to
rodden's argument that nato was a dead
issue in 2021
at the june 14
2021 2021 nato summit in brussels
we issued a communique that said we
reiterate the decision made at the 2008
bucharest summit that ukraine will
become a member of the alliance we
reaffirm all the elements of that
decision that argument was repeated in
november 10th 2021.
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