the new coronavirus SARS cough - and the
disease it causes COBIT 19 is spreading
across the globe and as more cases
appear outside of Asia you're probably
starting to hear the word pandemic the
risk of a global pandemic
is very much upon us global pandemic
could become a pandemic with the
potential to become a pandemic let's
unpack what that word actually means and
how you can protect yourself going
forward so what is a pandemic simply put
a pandemic is a disease that spreads
globally crossing international
boundaries and affecting a larger number
of people to put that in context here
are a few other helpful definitions so
firstly we have this definition of an
endemic disease that means a disease
that's occurring at a steady predictable
rate then you have outbreak which means
a disease that's spreading well above
and beyond endemic levels an epidemic on
the other hand is an outbreak that
spread to a large geographical area keep
in mind that Warner disease can change
status over time now going back to the P
word the classical definition of a
pandemic doesn't say anything at all
about disease severity it's really all
focused on geographic scale so far the
World Health Organization hasn't
referred to this as a pandemic our
message continues to me that this virus
has pandemic potential although many
epidemiologists myself included are
treating it as one the spread of this
new virus SARS cough tube is likely past
the point of containment and that's the
first thing you try to do with the
potential pandemic it's what China was
trying to do with massive quarantines
the likes of which we've never seen
before but once you're past that point
of containment you need to quickly pivot
to another focus instead of trying to
stop a disease that's already spread to
many different countries you need to
focus on slowing the spread of infection
to do this you have to properly isolate
people who are infected and try and
quickly develop treatments and vaccines
it looks like at least so far with this
new virus that the death rate is a lot
lower than other severe coronavirus
that doesn't mean many people haven't
died we've seen thousands of deaths but
the overall death rate is closer to
around 3% for this new virus whereas the
death rate for SARS was around 10
percent and for MERS the death rate was
over 30% now just because this new virus
doesn't seem to have as high a death
rate it doesn't mean that we shouldn't
have a plan so how do we protect
ourselves right now I know this sounds
really pedestrian but trust me one of
the best pieces of advice is to wash
your hands with soap and water regularly
have a good cop hygiene for like cough
into your elbow cough into a tissue and
then throw it away and also get your flu
shot I know people are kind of like over
hearing about the flu at this point but
the reason I say it is that if you get
sick with the flu it massively increases
your risk of getting a second
respiratory infection like the new
corona virus also you can practice
what's known as social distancing that
means simply limiting your exposure to
other people by working at home for
example or if you're in public
maintaining a distance of 3 to 6 feet
between you and others I'm getting a ton
of questions about masks understandably
so here's what you need to know you need
to our masks if you have symptoms of
respiratory disease symptoms like
coughing or if you're looking after
people who are sick and have those
symptoms you also need to know how to
properly use a mask and be aware of
things like once a mask is moist it's
not as effective and needs to be
replaced wearing a mask without full
knowledge of when and how to wear it can
be dangerous because it gives people a
false sense of security about how
protected they really are if you do need
a mask health authorities recommend a
regular surgical mask because that
prevents a droplets from other people
coming into contact with your mouth and
nose and if you have symptoms it
prevents those droplets from you
reaching others
an n95 mask is recommended for
healthcare workers caring for sick
people when they're doing procedures
that bring more fluid up from inside a
person's lungs that's more dangerous so
that's why n95 mask is recommended bear
in mind that with masks it's not one
size fits all you want to make sure that
a mask you're wearing really is right
for you and really is working one way to
do this
ideally you get a fit tested but also
when you put an n95 mask on you can do a
seal test where you breathe hard and you
feel to see whether any air is escaping
around it or not a question I get asked
a lot is should you are a mask if you
don't have any symptoms like just to be
really really safe the answer I normally
give is no because if you wear a mask
unnecessarily or you stock up on a ton
of them you're just contributing to the
mask shortages that we're already seeing
and taking away resources from people
who truly need them so for now take
advice from what your local health
officials are saying I think what
history tells us is that pandemics are
inevitable and to be expected and that's
really why we need solid pandemic
preparedness plans at national levels
and also at family and community levels
to understand just what pandemics are
capable of let's look at a few examples
from human history starting with perhaps
the most infamous pandemic the Black
Death or the bubonic plague
now this pandemic got its name from its
symptoms specifically lymph nodes that
became blackened and swollen after
bacteria entered through the skin lovely
I know now this isn't the first pandemic
by any means but it's certainly one of
the deadlier it lasted from around 1346
to 13.53 and resulted in the deaths of
somewhere between 75 million people up
to 200 million people it's mostly
associated with Europe but it's thoughts
have originated in Asia and then spread
across that continent as well as
possibly Africa there are a few theories
about how the disease spread to humans
some scientists say could have spread to
us directly from rats others say there's
some evidence that it was actually
spread by fleas that lived on gerbils
let's fast-forward to 1918 and here we
run into the Spanish
pandemic which infected one in three
humans alive at the time and cured about
50 million globally it's only called
Spanish because Spain was not involved
in World War one and it was neutral
therefore it did not have a new
censorship so when this outbreak arrived
in Spain that's when it got press
coverage rose in France and other
countries it was not mentioned in
newspapers at all the Spanish flu killed
really quickly there were approximately
25 million deaths in just the first five
or six months part of the reason for
that though probably had to do a lot
with poor living conditions at the time
and the fact that flu makes you
susceptible for other infections like
bacterial chest infections and back then
there were no antibiotics and unlike
what we're seeing today where it seems
that older people are more vulnerable to
death from covert 19 at least based on
preliminary data Spanish flu was
different it was wiping out young and
healthy adults then there's the hiv/aids
pandemic HIV quickly spread from central
and western Africa to every continent on
the planet in the early 1980s and it's
killed more than 30 million people
around the world it's also the first
pandemic for which there's been global
activism and be very rapid development
of treatments it went through the whole
spectrum from being an outbreak to an
epidemic to a pandemic and now many
people say we can call HIV endemic in
some parts of the world thanks to
advances in medical technology and the
AIDS activist HIV should be a chronic
manageable condition that you live with
your whole life although ideally we'd
have a vaccine and a cure for HIV next
we have the SARS pandemic which went
from 2002 to 2003 and was also caused by
a corona virus remember that's a whole
family of viruses including for corona
viruses that cause the common cold as
well as this new corona virus that
causes Cova - 19 SARS likely jumped from
civet cats to humans in China and then
spread to other parts of the world back
in 2002 Chinese officials had a delay in
sharing data about SARS and in response
the World Health Organization updated
the international health regulations
basically to compel all 194 member
states to get their act together and
meet specific standards
detecting reporting and responding to
outbreaks these new plans for a more
coordinated global response to pandemics
came into effect with the 2009 swine flu
pandemic which was caused by a new h1n1
flu virus and killed between 150,000 to
around half a million people it spread
really widely it was seen in both
northern and southern hemispheres
between April and September 2009 which
means they also spread outside of the
normal flu seasons we've learned from
previous pandemics that people can
either die from the disease at hand or
develop immunity to that disease and
that means that as the disease continues
to circulate it won't have that same
devastating impact that it did the first
time around one example of this is the
h1n1 virus that caused the 2009 flu
pandemic that virus is now a common flu
virus that circulates worldwide but it
doesn't cause a pandemic
so how does a pandemic end biologists
estimate that this new virus will likely
stay in China and continue to seed other
countries in the world until maybe it
just becomes as common as the other four
coronaviruses that cause the mild common
cold some people are even starting to
call it the fifth corona virus so maybe
that will be its story it goes from
covert 19 which causes terrible
situation to the fifth regular corona
virus causing the cold some firewater
just even predict that maybe 40 to 70%
of adults around the world will become
infected with the new virus before this
is all over but many scientists still
say the vast majority of those who
become infected are more likely to have
a milder version of the disease what we
have on our side versus those poor
people facing the black death for
example is we have the capacity to more
quickly develop treatments and vaccines
a covert 19a vaccine candidate could be
ready for early phases of safety testing
in April and if that goes while testing
could begin to see if the vaccine
actually prevents disease by the late
summer but reality check it would still
be 18 months at least after that that
any vaccine would probably be available
so yes you'll be hearing the P word a
lot but remember definitions of pandemic
focus on geographic spread and do not
focus on severity of a disease
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