as Italy is in lockdown the UK isn't yet
and health officials are defending their
decision not to the deputy chief medical
officer for England is warning that the
UK could see epidemic numbers going into
the thousands in the next two weeks I
think we will see many more cases and
this is slightly worrying I realize it
sounds an awful lot of numbers of people
but actually a lot of people have coughs
and colds over the winter normally a lot
of people have flu the important thing
here is this is a new disease and we
need to be very careful about protecting
those individuals who we think are most
at risk on the day where we've seen the
second-highest daily rise in cases up by
54 to a total of three hundred and
seventy three and six people who have
tested positive have died the latest
patient to die was being treated here
where's hartfordshire NHS trusts say he
was in his early 80s and had underlying
health conditions
there's also another worry and that's
coming from frontline medical staff dr.
Neil Tucker is a GP in Oxford there's a
lot of concern that we're at risk of
getting the condition and it's not so
much that we're concerned about our own
personal safety because I think we all
appreciate that the risk to most of us
as individuals is very small with
coronavirus but I think we're worried
about being vectored for the disease and
of course we'll will routinely be seeing
30 patients or so face to face every
single day in practice and we're seeing
some of the most vulnerable patients the
elderly those with multiple chronic
medical conditions and the last thing we
want to do is be putting them at risk
but there was some good news for medical
workers today as the health secretary
said the personal protection equipment
they've been waiting for is finally
reaching them as the amount of cases has
gone up there's a rising demand in
wanting to be tested Channel 4 News has
heard from people anxious at home self
isolating who are still waiting so what
typically happens in this situation is
there's always prioritization to the
patients that really urgently need the
result so you'll notice for example that
if you have a patient with severe
symptoms their test result is likely to
be turned around
much faster because it has an effect on
their treatment so how does the UK
compare as of March the 8th 1707
patients had been tested in the United
States according to their Center for
Disease Control in the UK by 8th of
March 23 thousand 513 people had been
tested for Kove at 19 if we look at
South Korea which had a massive outbreak
as of midnight on the 8th of March they
tested over one hundred and eighty eight
thousand people officials in South Korea
now believed that they have passed the
peak of the infection the big difference
between the situation in South Korea in
the UK is much more likely not to be
about the way the testing is done but
actually to be done to be to do with the
outbreak dynamics and the number of
people who are infected the government
has released this new map showing the
spread of the virus in the coming days
will also be waiting for the release of
their next steps which could restrict
our daily lives while joining me now is
dr. Rosalind eggo an infectious disease
modeler in public health epidemiology at
the London School of Hygiene and
Tropical Medicine doesn't echo what does
your modelling tell you right now about
what we might be looking at in two weeks
time and beyond if you can so right now
we're the what looks like the start of
things we've seen a lot of cases that
have arrived from other countries and
now we're starting to see a little bit
of community spread so that means people
who have acquired the infection in the
UK and over the next couple of weeks we
expect to see those numbers to grow but
by how much can you say it's difficult I
mean we if you're looking on a curve
where do we yeah so if no efforts are
taken it looks like the number of cases
for this particular virus doubles in
approximately four to six days but in
the UK things are being done so cases
are being followed they're being rapidly
isolated and their contacts are being
found in order to decrease transmission
so we're not in a situation where
nothing is being done but we're also
getting reports that a lot of people
with symptoms and not getting the test
because there's a delay in testing so is
there a possibility that a number of
cases that are being declared is
actually an under estimate that's often
the case
for all respira virus infections that
the number of cases that are that are
observed is smaller and what we have to
do in the is increase testing as much as
possible and get our viral surveillance
systems looking for this in the right
places to understand really what the
epidemic is doing what do you mean by
that viral surveillance systems so in
the UK we have strong viral surveillance
systems for especially for respiratory
viruses that take samples from patients
that gp's patients our hospitals and
look for what we call syndromic
surveillance they're looking for people
who are reporting symptoms consistent
with the infection and so through all of
these different pieces of information we
can understand the bigger picture of
what's happening with the epidemic in
the UK looking at the figures now and
all the evidence are you confident that
the disease is being contained as the
government suggests it's really it's a
difficult thing to say we are starting
to see more as I said these community
cases and as as we see more of those
then it becomes clear it will become
clear what we should do next but
couldn't you put a lid on those if you
act more aggressively if the government
acts more aggressively to curb big
gatherings close schools the kind of
things that other European countries are
doing with a similar number of cases to
us so deciding when to do the put these
extra measures in place is a really
difficult decision because you know we
have people have to believe that that's
the right thing to do if they're going
to do it if they're going to participate
in these interventions and we have to be
able to keep them going as long as we
need to to really flatten out the curve
and that's the goal here is to take
these interventions and what we're
talking about is increasing what we call
the social distance between people so
decrease in the contacts people have and
decreasing the chance that we pass it
and flatten out the epidemic as long as
possible very very briefly yeah we end
up looking at a situation like Italy is
that possible in the UK well we have to
take this opportunity to learn from the
other countries that have seen epidemics
and if nothing is done then you can see
case many more cases that's clear from a
lot of countries now so we have an
opportunity to take but if we're not
cancelling things like Cheltenham races
we're not learning from other countries
taking swift decisive action right
making those decisions it's really
to balance the balance of priorities and
the best advice is being given
scientific advice to make those
decisions dr. Rosen Decca thanks very
much
airlines are struggling tonight to cope
with mass cancellations as the virus
outbreaks lead to plummeting demand for
international flights
Ryanair and British Airways have
canceled their flights to and from Italy
at least until early April at the same
time the UK's hospitality industry is
warning that it is already experiencing
a drop off in bookings as customers stay
away from bars restaurants and hotels
our business and global trade
correspondent Paul McNamara reports now
from Leeds there's a whole lot of beer
and a little bit of bother brewing in
lete right 1.5 million pints are pumped
out of this brewery every year and a
third of them are sent overseas the last
shipment to China sets sail just two
weeks before the coronavirus crisis hit
we'd usually be brewing for the second
order of year now which would go around
April May but it's all on hold we don't
know when when the next orders coming
you literally have no idea no I don't
know it's an indefinite hiatus at the
moment and there's a shipping container
full of beer yeah it's a lot of beer and
we vary quite a few different night
money a lot of money yeah
so far sales at home their most
important market are holding up but as
for trips to festivals that could open
up new business it's a tough call so
it's six international trips to be a
kind of planning in May at the moment
for the voice we're holding our final
flights until maybe like even the day
before an event it's a thought process
that's been echoed the world over today
Qantas announced its cutting almost a
quarter of international flights British
Airways and Ryanair have cancelled all
flights to whistling into next month and
Airlines globally fear losing billions
flights are frozen visitor numbers are
down in other industries supply chains
are in limbo and companies are trying to
work out how best to protect themselves
the truth is we still don't know what
the full effect of coronavirus will be
on the wider economy but on the
industry's at the forefront there are
already great big warning signs last
week it was as if somebody flipped a
switch and we've had a real decline in
footfall in city centres sales are down
sometimes as high as 50% down and we've
seen event cancellations and holiday
cancellations going forward so in the
future we've got no income and no trade
coming in and we've got a very tight
squeeze at the present moment
it doesn't take a retail expert to work
out that can't continue for long before
businesses face folding jobs being lost
government intervention may be required
and tomorrow may be the moment to
announce it the directors are very very
interested in what the budget will say
tomorrow and if it's gonna be any
provisions for small businesses in the
budget if there's gonna be any tax
relief any help with national insurance
or anything because if we're not open
for trading we have salaries to pay and
that cash flow gets very tight very
quickly whatever options government is
rolling around doing nothing can't be
one of them
business expects something to be
delivered well Donald Trump has said
that the coronavirus will go away and
that everyone should stay calm he made
the remarks are for lunch with
Republicans where they discussed his
stimulus options to deal with the
economic impact of covin 19 Siobhan
Kennedy is in Washington for us now sure
Vaughn well Cathy the numbers here in
the US are still relatively low about
six hundred and forty seven cases 25
deaths but the panic is certainly
setting in Florida today has declared a
state of emergency and the National
Guard has been deployed to a new
containment zone in upstate New York and
behind me there on Capitol Hill Congress
men and women have been issued new
guidance today to stop shaking hands or
touching each other during meetings
about an hour ago the president emerged
from a meeting with Republican senators
where he was trying to sell his idea of
a payroll tax break as a stimulus to
counter the economic impact of the virus
and he was instead asked about whether
or not he had himself being tested after
it emerged that five people that he had
been in contact with had since gone into
self-isolation because they had been in
contact with people with the virus let's
hear what his response to that was well
I don't think it's a big deal I would do
it I don't
that any reason I feel extremely good I
feel very good but I guess it's not a
big deal to get tested and something I
would do
but again spoke to the white house
doctor terrific guy talented guy
he said he sees no reason to do it
there's no symptoms no anything I think
it's fair enough to say that the
president is still more obsessed with
the economic impact of the virus than he
is about the virus himself his message
very simple and once a consumers keep
calm and carry on spending