The National Hurricane Center, located at Florida International University in Miami,
Florida, is the division of the United States' National Weather Service responsible for tracking
and predicting weather systems within the tropics between the Prime Meridian and the
140th meridian west poleward to the 30th parallel north in the northeast Pacific ocean and the
31st parallel north in the northern Atlantic ocean. Its Tropical Analysis and Forecast
Branch routinely issues marine forecasts, in the form of graphics and high seas forecasts,
for this area year round, with the Ocean Prediction Center having backup responsibility for this
unit. The Technology and Science Branch provides technical support for the center, which includes
new infusions of technology from abroad. The Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination,
All Hurricanes unit tasks planes, for research and operational purposes, to tropical cyclones
during the Atlantic hurricane season and significant weather events, including snow storms, during
winter and spring. Research conducted to improve operational forecasts is done through the
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project and Joint Hurricane Test Bed initiatives.
During the Atlantic and northeast Pacific hurricane seasons, the Hurricane Specialists
Unit issues routine tropical weather outlooks for the northeast Pacific and northern Atlantic
oceans. When tropical storm or hurricane conditions are expected within 48 hours, the center
issues the appropriate watches and warnings via the news media and National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration Weather Radio. Although the NHC is an agency of the United
States, the World Meteorological Organization has designated it as Regional Specialized
Meteorological Center for the North Atlantic and eastern Pacific, making it the central
clearinghouse for all tropical cyclone forecasts and observations occurring in these areas.
If the center loses power or becomes incapacitated in some manner, the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center backs tropical cyclone advisories and tropical weather outlooks for the northeast
Pacific ocean while the Weather Prediction Center backs up tropical cyclone advisories
and tropical weather outlooks for the north Atlantic ocean.
History
The first hurricane warning service was set up in the 1870s from Cuba with the work of
Father Benito Viñes. After his passing, hurricane warning services were assumed by the United
States Signal Corp and United States Weather Bureau over the next decade, first based in
Jamaica in 1898 and Cuba in 1899 before shifting to Washington, D.C. in 1902. The central office
in Washington, which evolved into the National Meteorological Center and Weather Prediction
Center, assumed hurricane warning/advisory responsibility at that time. This responsibility
passed to regional hurricane offices in 1935, and the concept of the Atlantic hurricane
season was established in order to keep a vigilant lookout for tropical cyclones during
certain times of the year. Hurricane advisories issued every six hours by the regional hurricane
offices began at this time. The Jacksonville hurricane warning office moved to Miami, Florida
in 1943. Tropical cyclone naming began for Atlantic tropical cyclones using the Joint
Army/Navy Phonetic Alphabet by 1947. Starting in 1950, the Miami Hurricane Warning Office
began to prepare the annual hurricane season summary articles. In the 1953 Atlantic season,
the United States Weather Bureau began naming storms which reach tropical storm intensity
with human names.
The National Hurricane Research Project, begun in the 1950s, used aircraft to study tropical
cyclones and carry out experiments on mature hurricanes through its Project Stormfury.
On July 1, 1956, a National Hurricane Information Center was established in Miami, Florida which
became a warehouse for all hurricane-related information from one United States Weather
Bureau office. The Miami Hurricane Warning Office was moved from Lindsey Hopkins Hotel
to the Aviation Building 4 miles to the northwest on July 1, 1958. Forecasts within the hurricane
advisories were issued one day into the future in 1954 before being extended to two days
into the future in 1961, three days into the future in 1964, and five days into the future
in 2001. The Miami HWO moved to the campus of the University of Miami in 1964, and was
referred to as the NHC in 1965. The Miami HWO tropical cyclone reports were done regularly
and took on their modern format in 1964.
Beginning in 1973, the National Meteorological Center duties gained advisory responsibility
for tracking and publicizing inland tropical depressions. The World Meteorological Organization
assumed control of the Atlantic hurricane naming list in 1977. In 1978, the NHC's offices
moved off the campus of the University of Miami across U.S. Highway 1 to the IRE Financial
Building. Male names were added into the hurricane list beginning in the 1979 season. The hurricane
warning offices remained active past 1983. In 1984, the NHC was separated from the Miami
Weather Service Forecast Office, which meant the meteorologist in charge at Miami was no
longer in a position above the hurricane center director. By 1988, the NHC gained responsibility
for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones as the former Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center in
San Francisco was decommissioned. In 1992, Hurricane Andrew blew the WSR-57 weather radar
and the anemometer off the roof of NHC's/the Miami State Weather Forecast offices. The
radar was replaced with a WSR-88D NEXRAD system in April 1993 installed near Metro Zoo, near
where Hurricane Andrew made landfall. In 1995, the NHC moved into a new hurricane-resistant
facility on the campus of Florida International University, capable of withstanding 130 mph
winds. Its name was changed to the Tropical Prediction Center in 1995. After the name
change to TPC, the Hurricane Specialists were grouped as a separate NHC unit under the Tropical
Prediction Center, separating themselves from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch.
On October 1, 2010, the Tropical Prediction Center was renamed the NHC, and the group
formerly known as the NHC became known as the Hurricane Specialists Unit.
Tropical cyclone forecasting is done nowadays using statistical methods based on tropical
cyclone climatology, as well as methods of numerical weather prediction where computers
use mathematical equations of motion to determine their movement. The World Meteorological Organization
continues to create and maintain the annual hurricane naming lists. Naming lists continue
to use a six-year rotation, with the deadliest or most notable storms having their names
retired from the rotation. The current director of the National Hurricane Center is Richard
Knabb. List of directors
Organization For the fiscal year of 2008, the budget for
the NHC was $6.8 million. A total of 66 people work for the NHC, with 12 of the staff composing
their management. The NHC has been one of the nine national centers which compose the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Hurricane Specialists Unit
Known as the NHC from 1995 through 2010, the hurricane specialists within the hurricane
specialists unit are the chief meteorologists that predict the actions of tropical storms.
The specialists work rotating eight-hour shifts from May through November, monitoring weather
patterns in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific oceans. Whenever a tropical or subtropical
cyclone forms, they begin to issue advisories every six hours until the storm runs its course.
Public advisories are issued more often when the storm expected to be of tropical storm
or hurricane intensity threatens land. The specialists coordinate with officials in each
country likely to be affected. They forecast and recommend watches and warnings.
During the hurricane season, the HSU routinely issues their Tropical Weather Outlook product,
which identifies areas of concern within the tropics which could develop into tropical
cyclones. If systems occur outside the defined hurricane season, special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued. Backup responsibility for their northeast Pacific area resides at
the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and vice versa if CPHC were to have communication
issues. North Atlantic responsibilities are backed up by the Weather Prediction Center.
Routine coordination occurs at 1700 UTC each day between the Weather Prediction Center
and National Hurricane Center to identify systems for the pressure maps three to seven
days into the future within the tropics, and points for existing tropical cyclones six
to seven days into the future. Outside of the hurricane season, the specialists concentrate
on public education efforts. Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch
The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch is a part of the National Hurricane Center
and was created in 1967. The TAFB is responsible for high seas analyses and forecasts for tropical
portions of the Atlantic and Pacific between the Prime Meridian and the 140th meridian
west poleward to the 30th parallel north in the northeast Pacific ocean and the 31st parallel
north in the northern Atlantic ocean. Unlike the Hurricane Specialists Unit, TAFB is staffed
full-time around the year. Other responsibilities of the TAFB include satellite-derived tropical
cyclone position and intensity estimates, WSR-88D radar fixes for tropical cyclones,
tropical cyclone forecast support, media support, and general operational support. The Ocean
Prediction Center backs up TAFB in the event of a communications outage, and vice versa.
Technology and Science Branch The Technology & Science Branch develops and
transitions new tools and techniques into operations for tropical weather prediction
in conjunction with other government and academic entities. TSB created and continues development
of the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting system, used to incorporate various data and
model outputs, create and update HURDAT, and to generate tropical cyclone forecasts. The
TSB provides support for NHC computer and communications systems including its website.
TSB maintains a number of statistical and dynamical models used in predicting both tropical
cyclone behavior and associated weather conditions. The Storm Surge Unit, which develops and maintains
software to forecast the storm surge of tropical cyclones, is part of this branch. The Techniques
Development and Applications Unit is part of TSB.
CARCAH The Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination,
All Hurricanes is a subunit of the 53d Weather Reconnaissance Squadron. CARCAH's mission
is to provide a point-of-contact and to coordinate all tropical cyclone operational reconnaissance
requirements at NHC and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center for the North Atlantic, Caribbean,
Gulf of Mexico, and the North Pacific basin east of the International Date Line in accordance
with the National Hurricane Operations Plan. During the winter, CARCAH coordinates the
Atlantic and Pacific winter storm requirements in support of the National Winter Storms Operations
Plan. Missions are flown in advance of the high-impact weather events forecast to affect
the U.S., such as heavy snowfall, and at times when there is significant uncertainty within/between
numerical weather prediction output. HLT
The Hurricane Liaison Team supports hurricane response through information exchange between
the NHC, the National Weather Service, and the emergency management community. The HLT
is composed of federal, state, and local emergency managers, as well as NWS meteorologists and
hydrologists, who maintain open lines of communication about the progress and threat level of the
storm with appropriate Federal, state, and local officials. The team establishes and
facilitates video and/or teleconferences with the NHC, FEMA and other Federal agencies,
state Emergency Operations Centers, Weather Prediction Center, Storm Prediction Center,
and River Forecast Centers. During significant landfalling hurricanes, the President of the
United States as well as affected city mayors and state governors join the daily briefing
call, which occurs at noon Eastern Daylight Time.
Research As part of their annual tropical cyclone activity,
the agency issues a report on every tropical cyclone in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
Ocean basins, which are available since 1958 and 1988, respectively. The report summarizes
the synoptic history, meteorological statistics, casualties and damages, and the post-analysis
best track of a storm. The reports were formally known as Preliminary Reports up until 1999.
The agency maintains archives and climatological statistics on Atlantic and Pacific hurricane
history, including annual reports on every tropical cyclone, a complete set of tropical
cyclone advisories, digitized copies of related materials on older storms, season summaries
published as the Monthly Weather Review, and HURDAT, which is the official tropical cyclone
database. Programs are dedicated to improving the accuracy
of tropical cyclone forecasts from the center. The Joint Hurricane Testbed is a joint operation
between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and United States Weather Research
Program to speed up the transfer of tropical cyclone-related research into forecast operations.
Since 2001, with its annual budget of between $1.0 and $1.5 million, the JHT has funded
62 initiatives, with most of them being implemented operationally. The projects have had varied
success, ranging from minor to significant advances in the way the NHC operates. The
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program's five-year goal is to lead to a 20 percent improvement
within the numerical weather prediction models provided by the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction to NHC by 2015 and a 50 percent improvement within tropical cyclone track
forecasting and intensity guidance by 2020. See also
Bureau of Meteorology Canadian Hurricane Centre
Fiji Meteorological Service Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited
India Meteorological Department Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center George R. Stewart
Storm References
External links NHC.NOAA.gov - Official Website
National Hurricane Center on Twitter